Sweden election 2022

[parochial boy]

Standard questions of
a) When do polls close
b) live stream for exit polls and count
c) links to live results

In my city, Gothenburg, the four Alliance parties have been governing in a very weak minority coalition with only 24 out of 81 seats ever since the last election. This is due to it producing an unusually complicated result due to a new single issue party, the Democrats, getting 17% of the vote after running on a platform of stopping the West Link rail tunnel currently under construction. It looks like they will still be a factor on the council after this election, but reduced by about 10% since the main issue they ran on last time is pretty much dead with the tunnel is so close to completion. Polls have shown the Social Democrats gaining and within reach of a majority alongside V, MP and the Feminist Initiative (should the latter get past the threshold). But the question remains how easy it will be for them to work together since there's been quite a bit of friction between S and the other three after their previous coalition broke apart following the last election.

Speaking of which, what is Gothenburg normally like politically/demographically speaking? Stockholm and Malmö I think I've got a good handle on, but Gothenburg always seems to run closer to the national average and I'm not really sure why?

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

How much collaboration is there likely to be with Sweden Democrats at a regional/local level, especially in areas where they will probably take too many seats to be ignored (scania?)

I think it can be pretty safe to assume we'll get a lot more coalitions at the local and regional level containing the Sweden Democrats after this election.

There are already a few local councils where there is collaboration, both officially and unofficially. In Hörby, Svalöv, Sölvesborg and Bjuv the mayors are all Sweden Democrats. The small town of Bromölla also had a Sweden Democratic mayor for a few years but he resigned and was replaced by a Social Democrat. In Staffanstorp and Surahammar the Sweden Democrats are part of the governing coalitions, but don't hold the position of mayor themselves and in some other places they're not officially part of the governing parties but have very close collaborations with them, such as in Landskrona and my home town Hässleholm. As you might guess most of these places (but not all) are in Scania.

How well these local coalitions have worked have differed from place to place, in Sölvesborg the Sweden Democrat mayor Louise Erixon (Åkesson's ex-girlfriend and the mother of his son) is apparently very popular whereas in Bromölla next door, the Sweden Democratic mayor (as I noted above) had to resign because they completely failed to manage the budget and where on their way to run the municipality's economy into the ground.

One of the annoying things about Swedish elections is they put all their elections on the same day, so municipal elections are overshadowed.

I'm actually a big proponent of the Swedish system in this case. Thanks to the fact that we have all our elections on the same day we also have some of the highest turn-out in local elections anywhere.  The main critique against the system is that local politics will be side-lined by the big national campaigns and that people will just vote the same locally as they do nationally, but the actual results at the local level clearly shows that it's not actually the case.

Local and regional parties flourish and are often very successful, and the results on the local level can be very different to how that municipality votes nationally. According to research from Lund University about 1/3 of voters vote differently at the local and national level.

That being said, for us election nerds it does make it harder to nerd out about it.

Speaking of the Feminist Initiative, it seems Gudrun Schyman left them to found yet another microparty named Climate Alliance. Was it all just a grift?

I think she just genuinely enjoys creating new parties, like a serial entrepreneur but for political parties

She's a bit French in the regard that she sees herself as a candidate and a leader of a movement as much more important than any party that she happen to belong to or used to belong to. It's very odd from a Swedish perspective because party loyalty is extremely ingrained in our political culture.

So, I wouldn't call it a grift in the sense that she only do stuff to benefit economically from it or fool people in any way. She's just a Swedish Melenchon and is not afraid to throw an old party away when that party no longer align 100% with her personal political goals and ambitions.

Outside of a few local chapters, Feminist Initiative is basically dead. Even in most places where they managed to win seats in the city council last time, they haven't field any candidates. I wouldn't be too surprised if they fail to win seats anywhere today.

The Climate Alliance will be a dud as well. Schyman is getting quite old and does not have the energy to campaign like she did a decade ago and her position on the Ukrainian war is not making her any allies.
 

[DavidB.]

Another argument for the Swedish system is that local elections on a different date than national elections would actually be "nationalized", because people want to use the election to punish or reward government parties.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Another argument for the Swedish system is that local elections on a different date than national elections would actually be "nationalized", because people want to use the election to punish or reward government parties.

You then end up with (for instance) a bunch of local administrations elected on the usual low turnouts in place for years solely because the electorate was happy or angry with the government at a particular moment, a moment that often passes within months of the local polls. Which isn't particularly healthy.

[The Lord Marbury]

Standard questions of
a) When do polls close
b) live stream for exit polls and count
c) links to live results

In my city, Gothenburg, the four Alliance parties have been governing in a very weak minority coalition with only 24 out of 81 seats ever since the last election. This is due to it producing an unusually complicated result due to a new single issue party, the Democrats, getting 17% of the vote after running on a platform of stopping the West Link rail tunnel currently under construction. It looks like they will still be a factor on the council after this election, but reduced by about 10% since the main issue they ran on last time is pretty much dead with the tunnel is so close to completion. Polls have shown the Social Democrats gaining and within reach of a majority alongside V, MP and the Feminist Initiative (should the latter get past the threshold). But the question remains how easy it will be for them to work together since there's been quite a bit of friction between S and the other three after their previous coalition broke apart following the last election.

Speaking of which, what is Gothenburg normally like politically/demographically speaking? Stockholm and Malmö I think I've got a good handle on, but Gothenburg always seems to run closer to the national average and I'm not really sure why?

Well I wouldn't call myself much of an expert, I've only lived here for four years. But as a port city that's the home of major exporting companies like Volvo and SKF, Gothenburg has always been very international and trade-oriented, with a strong working class character. This has historically made the city more favourable toward the Social Democrats than for example Stockholm, with S managing to stay in power during the 8 years of Alliance government nationally.

Demographically the city is still somewhat working class in character, but it has lessened over the years, starting with the wave of shipyard closures in 1970s. And of course it has a significant immigrant population and is sadly very segregated like the two other major cities, with most immigrants or people with immigrant backgrounds concentrated in "million programme" suburbs built during the 60s and 70s.

The city also has a very strong liberal streak, with Liberals tending to do better in the city than they do nationally. However the brand of liberalism historically associated with the Liberals in Gothenburg, the "Gothenburg liberalism", is generally seen to be more on the social liberal wing of the Liberals. Now that the Liberals are firmly saying that they're willing to work with SD, it'll be interesting to see what happens to their vote share in the city. The Centre Party has never had a particularly strong presence here, in fact prior to the last election they hadn't managed to win a seat on the council since 2006. So it will be interesting to see how they fare this time, and if they'll manage to win over some disillusioned former Liberals.

[DavidB.]

Where do Swedish parties stand on nuclear energy?

[The Lord Marbury]

I thought I should post the result of the exit poll from the last election in comparison to the actual final result. Just as a reminder of how cautiously we should treat the upcoming exit poll, especially considering how close the polls are.

SVT's 2018 exit poll - actual election result in bold - (difference)
Social Democrats: 26.2% - 28.3% (+2.1)
Moderate: 17.8% - 19.8% (+2)
Sweden Democrats: 19.2% - 17.5% (-1.7)
Centre: 8.9% - 8.6% (-0.3)
Left: 9% - 8% (-1)
Christian Democrats: 7.4% - 6.3% (-1.1)
Liberals: 5.4% - 5.5% (+0.1)
Green: 4.2% - 4.4% (+0.2)

TV4 will also publish an election day poll 15 minutes before polls close at 19.45, but this is not an exit poll where people have been asked what they voted for outside polling stations. It's still an opinion poll, conducted with a combination of phone and online interviews.

[The Lord Marbury]

Where do Swedish parties stand on nuclear energy?

M, KD, L and SD are in favour of building new nuclear power stations and of using tax payer money to fund them, having proposed state credit guarantees of 400 billion SEK to fund them.

S and C aren't opposed to new nuclear power stations but they're sceptical of paying for them with tax payer money. But they haven't completely ruled it out either since both parties want to see some kind of broad cross-bloc agreement on energy policy. C also wants to invest in existing reactors to increase their power production.

V are opposed to new nuclear power stations, they say it's too costly, takes too much time and it would be more effective to spend money on renewables.

MP are (as to be expected) the most opposed to nuclear energy. They do stand behind the law which allows for energy companies to build new nuclear power stations on sites of existing ones if they wish so. But they've also said that they couldn't sit in a government which takes the decision to start up a new reactor.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Standard questions of
a) When do polls close
b) live stream for exit polls and count
c) links to live results

a) 7pm London time; 2pm New York time
b) SVT coverage: https://www.svtplay.se/video/36466051/val-2022-sverige-rostar?id=KZApJ9P
c) VAL, Electoral Commission, vote count: https://resultat.val.se/val2022/prel/RD/rike

Adding some additional resources in case someone's feed has problems:

TV4 live coverage: https://www.tv4play.se/program/valet-2022/live/13784847?utm_source=tv4.se&utm_medium=partner&utm_campaign=upsell

Aftobladet live coverage: https://tv.aftonbladet.se/video/346156/aftonbladets-valvaka-2022





Also, useful reference from 2018, created by our very own Realpolitik:

[Double Carpet]

Many thanks for the links for tonight, much appreciated.

[Mike88]

Standard questions of
a) When do polls close
b) live stream for exit polls and count
c) links to live results

a) 7pm London time; 2pm New York time
b) SVT coverage: https://www.svtplay.se/video/36466051/val-2022-sverige-rostar?id=KZApJ9P
c) VAL, Electoral Commission, vote count: https://resultat.val.se/val2022/prel/RD/rike

Adding some additional resources in case someone's feed has problems:

TV4 live coverage: https://www.tv4play.se/program/valet-2022/live/13784847?utm_source=tv4.se&utm_medium=partner&utm_campaign=upsell

Aftobladet live coverage: https://tv.aftonbladet.se/video/346156/aftonbladets-valvaka-2022

Youtube link:

TV4 "exit poll" in 10 minutes.

[Continential]

Is there anything with English subtitles?

[Mike88]

TV4's way to present their poll is just... infuriating.

[jaichind]

TV4 poll seems favorable to the Center-Left bloc

[Continential]

TV4 exit poll:

S 29.7 (+1.4)
SD 21.3 (+3.8)
M 16.0 (-3.8)
V 7.5 (-0.5)
C 7.4 (-1.2)
Mp 6.0 (+1.6)
KD 5.8 (-0.5)
L 4.9 (-0.6)

S+V+C+Mp = 50.6% (+1.3)
M+SD+KD+L = 48.0% (-1.1)

[Walmart_shopper]

Is there anything with English subtitles?

You don't even speak Swedish?

[Mike88]

TV4 poll:

50.6% Leftwing+Center
48.0% Rightiwng

Now, let's see the real exit poll from SVT. 5 minutes.

[Continential]

Now, let's see the real exit poll from SVT. 5 minutes.

Hopefully it won't be torture like the TV4 one.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Love M eating sh**t, that's what you get for selling your soul to rightwing populism

[Mike88]

Love M eating sh**t, that's what you get for selling your soul to rightwing populism

Their election night venue also looks fitting: a bar it seems. They will probably need a good strong drink after tonight.

[Mike88]

SVT exit poll:

49.8% Leftwing+Center, 176 seats
49.2% Rightwing, 173

[jaichind]

Exit poll has it neck-to-neck between the two blocs

[jaichind]

Exit polls has a decrease in minor parties relative to 2018.  It seems polarization is in play.

[Mike88]

Exit poll has it neck-to-neck between the two blocs

Still, very bad for the Moderates, although a bit better than the TV4's poll.

[jaichind]

Exit poll has it neck-to-neck between the two blocs

Still, very bad for the Moderates, although a bit better than the TV4's poll.

Minus 1 is not that bad all things considered.  It seems if exit polls are right then aligning with SD loses some support on the margins it is not the kiss of death.