Nigerian Presidential Election, February 25, 2023

[jaichind]

Some more official and unofficial results came in  which all things equal lean Obi.

APC     ~37%
LP       ~25%
PDP     ~29%

I think we are getting close to the end. Outstanding vote will be fairly anti-Obi.

[jaichind]

Tinubu's vote is very efficient.  I count 7 states where he won between 25% and 33% of the vote. These vote shares are pulling him over the 24+ state >25% threshold hump to win.

[Agafin]

So who is the Condorcet winner in this election? We can safely say that it's not Obi. So the question might be simplified as, who would have won a potential Tinubu vs Atiku run-off? I think it's Atiku which means that the Obi defection will really stink for him.

Could this have an effect on the perception of Igbos by Hausa/fulanis?

[jaichind]

I have it now at

APC       36.22%
LP         25.87%
PDP       28.79%

Only anti-Obi Borno is outstanding.  For Rivers I have only partial results but this state seems to be a wash.  So it seems that this will be very close to the result in the end.

[jaichind]

https://punchng.com/breaking-collation-officer-suspends-rivers-result-announcement-over-threats-to-life/

"BREAKING: Collation officer suspends Rivers result announcement over threats to life"

I guess this is why I have only partial Rivers results.

[jaichind]

It seems Obi most likely very strong with urban educated voters who were most likely overrepresented in opinion polls.  Election day non-Igbo rural unwashed came out to vote against Obi driving him to third place.

[jaichind]

With very anti-Obi pro-Tinubu left the current result is

APC       36.43%
LP         25.78%
PDP       28.69%

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

With very anti-Obi pro-Tinubu left the current result is

APC       36.43%
LP         25.78%
PDP       28.69%

Obi seems to have done quite below expectations.

[jaichind]

With very anti-Obi pro-Tinubu left the current result is

APC       36.43%
LP         25.78%
PDP       28.69%

Obi seems to have done quite below expectations.

Agreed.  My theory is

It seems Obi most likely very strong with urban educated voters who were most likely overrepresented in opinion polls.  Election day non-Igbo rural unwashed came out to vote against Obi driving him to third place.

Also there were a lot of hype about Obi in the Western press which also might have gave a mirage of high level of support he had which in the end was not there.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

With very anti-Obi pro-Tinubu left the current result is

APC       36.43%
LP         25.78%
PDP       28.69%

Obi seems to have done quite below expectations.

Agreed.  My theory is

It seems Obi most likely very strong with urban educated voters who were most likely overrepresented in opinion polls.  Election day non-Igbo rural unwashed came out to vote against Obi driving him to third place.

Also there were a lot of hype about Obi in the Western press which also might have gave a mirage of high level of support he had which in the end was not there.

Could we have seen strategic voting for Tinubu on masse because of people not wanting Obi to win?
Also, it's not surprising I guess that the "urban" "reformist" type candidate got a lot of hype in the Western press. Truth be told, Nigeria is as urban as the US was in the 1920s.

[Mike88]

Using the data from the very good Wikipedia page of this election, the current popular vote tally is as follows:

36.4% Tinubu, 8,553,138 votes
28.9% Abubakar, 6,791,369
25.9% Obi, 6,083,812
  6.3% Kwankwaso, 1,492,045
  2.6% Others, 603,400

[jaichind]

Could we have seen strategic voting for Tinubu on masse because of people not wanting Obi to win?
Also, it's not surprising I guess that the "urban" "reformist" type candidate got a lot of hype in the Western press. Truth be told, Nigeria is as urban as the US was in the 1920s.

I have no idea.  I would say that Obi being Igbo is most likely big deal.  Igbos are very strong in the commercial sector and that will breed resentment from other groups.  Despite the history in the USA most racial animus in the world are upward and not downward.

On data that is interesting is the vote share of the 3 top candidates and the median vote share by state for each candidate

           Vote share      Median vote share
APC       36.43%                  37.85%
LP         25.78%                   14.79%
PDP       28.69%                   27.07%

Obi stands out in terms of how concentrated his vote was which would be Igbo and urban areas.  Igbos make up 18% of Nigerian population.  I suspect Igbos turned out higher than other groups due to Obi running.  So it seems Obi won the Igbo vote plus the urban vote plus of the few Left-Progressive vote and that's it.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Could we have seen strategic voting for Tinubu on masse because of people not wanting Obi to win?
Also, it's not surprising I guess that the "urban" "reformist" type candidate got a lot of hype in the Western press. Truth be told, Nigeria is as urban as the US was in the 1920s.

I have no idea.  I would say that Obi being Igbo is most likely big deal.  Igbos are very strong in the commercial sector and that will breed resentment from other groups.  Despite the history in the USA most racial animus in the world are upward and not downward.

On data that is interesting is the vote share of the 3 top candidates and the median vote share by state for each candidate

           Vote share      Median vote share
APC       36.43%                  37.85%
LP         25.78%                   14.79%
PDP       28.69%                   27.07%

Obi stands out in terms of how concentrated his vote was which would be Igbo and urban areas.  Igbos make up 18% of Nigerian population.  I suspect Igbos turned out higher than other groups due to Obi running.  So it seems Obi won the Igbo vote plus the urban vote plus of the few Left-Progressive vote and that's it.

Interesting.
That Obi % probably drops a few points just by removing Lagos out.
And yeah, likely anti-Igbo sentiment certainly would be relevant for Obi here.

[jaichind]

Borno came in. My "unofficial" final count would now be

                                             Num of states >25%
APC     36.76%  8,834,122              29
PDP     28.95%  6,955,627              21
LP       25.35%  6,090,994              16

[Logical]

Given the number of states where Tinubu barely cleared the 25% threshold one has to wonder if his votes were efficient or rigged.

[jaichind]

By winning with around 8.8 million votes, Tinubu wins fewer votes than every major party candidate (including those that lost) in every election all the way back to 1999 bar one (the main loser in 2007 won fewer votes.)

[Agafin]

Seems like Jonathan has all but congratulated Tinubu already. Say what you want but that man is a true democrat.

[Sadader]

Does Tinubu have any actual policies or agenda? I'd think Emefiele (central bank governor) is out after his very odd moves last year. Nigeria has so much potential but they'll might have to restructure (~default on their debt) this year.

[NewYorkExpress]

Tinubu has offically been declared the winner.

Election officials declared Bola Tinubu the winner of Nigeria’s presidential election Wednesday, keeping the ruling party in power in Africa’s most populous nation and raising the specter of protests by opposition supporters who already have called for the vote to be voided.

Tinubu, 70, the former governor of Lagos state, appealed for reconciliation with his rivals in a pre-dawn victory speech in the capital, Abuja. The running mate of one opposition candidate, though, signaled a court challenge was imminent.

....

Tinubu received only 37% of the vote in last weekend’s election and would be Nigeria’s first president to take office with less than 50%, analysts say. The main opposition candidate, Atiku Abubakar, received won 29% of the vote, while third-place finisher Obi got 25%, according to official results.