Trump 2012: An Alternative 2012 Election and Beyond

[paxamericana]

Trump 2012

Gage Skidmore/Wikimedia Commons



An Alternative 2012 Election and Beyond

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Obama would have beaten Trump in a landslide he he had ran in 2012.

[BigVic]

Watched

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"Trump launches exploratory committee for potential presidential run" – CNN, (05/16/2011)

"Donald Trump is not a legitimate candidate in this race. He is not even conservative. He is only doing this as a publicity stunt to promote his TV show. Do not be fooled by him," –  Andrew Breitbart, (05/19/2011)

"Trump makes presidential bid official," – NPR, (06/15/2011)

"Romney, Bachmann join growing GOP field," – Fox News, (06/28/2011)

2012 Republican Primary Polling (06/30/2011)

Former Governor Mitt Romney (R-UT): 16.6%

Former Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX): 7.9%

Former Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-GA): 7.5%

Represenative Michelle Bachmann (R-MN): 4.3%

Governor Rick Perry (R-TX): 4.1%

Mr. Herman Cain (R-GA): 3.4%

Mr. Donald Trump (R-NY): 3.1%

Former Governor Buddy Roemer (R-LA): 2.6%

Former Ambassador Jon Huntsman Jr. (R-UT): 2.1%

"All of these Republicans are coming out against us. Ignore them. They have no idea what the hell they are talking about, frankly. The establishment is trying hard to derail our campaign. We aren't going to let that happen,"– Donald Trump at a campaign event in Iowa, (07/14/2011)

"Trump, Romney spar in first GOP Presidential Debate," – Washington Post, (08/01/2011)

"If we want to beat Barack Obama next November, our party needs a serious candidate. Donald Trump, the reality TV star, is not a serious candidate. He is a con artist, his promises are shallow and he has no practical solutions to the issues we are facing as a nation," Mitt Romney during the GOP Debate (08/01/2011)

"You keep saying we need to repeal Obamacare, but you passed a bill that's practically the same. It's the exact same bill, there were no differences, Mitt. Frankly, we don't need Obamacare Lite. We need to get rid of it, it is a total and complete disaster," Donald Trump during the GOP Debate (08/01/2011)

"Trump experiences bump in the polls after debate performance," – ABC, (08/02/2011)

"Dow drops 500 points in worst day for stock market since 2008 amidst debt ceiling crisis," – NBC, (08/04/2011)

"Recession fears grow as DOW falls nearly seven percent," – Wall Street Journal, (09/23/2011)

"Unemployment rate falls to 8.9 percent," – CNN, (12/02/2011)

"The economy is in complete shambles because of the weak and ineffective leadership of Barack Obama. If I was president, we would be creating so many new jobs that your head would spin," Donald Trump during a Campaign Event in Des Monies, Iowa (12/14/2011)

Iowa Cacusus Polling (01/01/2012)

Former Governor Mitt Romney (R-UT): 21.8%

Mr. Donald Trump (R-NY): 20.7%

Former Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX): 15.5%

Former Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-GA): 13.1%

Governor Rick Perry (R-TX): 11.5%

Represenative Michelle Bachmann (R-MN): 7.8%

Former Ambassador Jon Huntsman Jr. (R-UT): 2.1%

[Vice President Christian Man]

Prediction:

Closest States (<1%):
Colorado: .37% (Tipping point state)
Pennsylvania: .51%
Wisconsin: .58%
Virginia: .6%
New Hampshire: .77%

Closer States (1-5%):
Maine 2nd Congressional District: 1.11%
Florida: 2.45%
Nevada: 2.48%
Michigan: 3.50%
Minnesota: 4.98%

Close States (6-10%):
North Carolina: 6.02%
Ohio: 6.03%
Maine (At. lg): 8.09%
Delaware: 8.70%
Oregon: 9.58%

Businessman Donald Trump/Speaker Newt Gingrich (Or whoever his running mate is): 50.6%/272 E.V.
President Barack Obama/Vice President Joe Biden: 48.4%/266 E.V.

Approval ratings of each candidate at the time of the election:
Barack Obama: 43/55% (-12)
Donald Trump: 42/52% (-10)

Basically the 2016 election if Clinton won about half the Obama-Trump voters plus Stein voters, as well as Trump winning almost all the Romney-Clinton and around half of former Republicans who switched parties at the national level after W. Bush.

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Part Two: The Rise of Donald Trump

Donald Trump's Presidential Campaign was widely mocked in both mainstream and conservative circles as a joke. Very few in the professional class took his rhetoric seriously and frequently pointed out his prominent role in the Obama Birther Conspiracy. However, as the GOP Primaries heated up, it became apparent that Trump's message was resonating with a large portion of the GOP's base. His frequent criticisms of President Obama and the political establishment resonated with voters in a manner that other Republican candidates had trouble matching. He managed to tap into the same anger and mistrust of the government that fueled the Tea Party Movement which propelled the Republicans to a massive 2010 Midterm Victory.

Mitt Romney became Trump's biggest critic. Romney believed that Trump's ideas were dangerous and far outside of the mainstream of not just his party, but the rest of the American public. He felt that Trump was unable to effectively lead and that his rhetoric was too divisive for his own good. During the primaries, Romney was the candidate that anti-Trump Republicans rallied around, believing that he was the best chance the GOP had to defeat Obama. Romney remained the frontrunner during the early months of the primary cycle, despite the growing momentum of Trump and other anti-establishment candidates.

"CNN can now project that Former Congressman Ron Paul will place first in the Iowa Caucus," Wolf Blitzer on CNN (01/03/2012)

Iowa Caucus Results

Fmr. Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX): 31,134 (27.9%)
Mr. Donald Trump (R-NY): 29,340 (26.4%)
Fmr. Speaker Newt Gringrich (R-GA): 19,340 (17.4%)
Fmr. Governor Mitt Romney (R-UT): 18,943 (16.9%)
Governor Rick Perry (R-TX): 12,557 (11.3%)

"Anti-establishment canidates triumph in Iowa Caucus," — Washington Post (01/04/2012)


"Romney denies reports of dropping out, vows to press on despite placing fourth in Iowa," — The New York Times, (01/05/2012)

"We didn't do as well as we hoped in Iowa, but it is not over yet! We are going to press on despite what the press keeps saying," Mitt Romney on The O'Reiley Factor (01/07/2012)

New Hampshire Primary Results

Fmr. Governor Mitt Romney (R-UT): 96,675 (34.8%)
Mr. Donald Trump (R-NY): 58,789 (21.1%)
Fmr. Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX): 56,237 (20.2%)
Fmr. Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-GA): 45,978 (16.5%)
Governor Rick Perry (R-TX): 20,345 (7.3%)

"Governor Rick Perry announces the end of his presidential bid, endorses Romney" — Fox News (01/19/2012)

"Donald Trump is not a conservative. Snarky comments and one linners do not translate into effective policy. We must do everything in our power to stop Trump from getting the nomination," Governor Rick Perry announcing his endorsement of Mitt Romney (01/19/2012)

"Frankly, I'm suprised he lasted this long. Remember at the debate: he couldn't even remember his own policy ideas. He brought up three departments he was going to cut and he couldn't even remember the third. What a complete embarassement," Donald Trump commenting on Rick Perry's withdrawal (01/20/2012)

"Polls: Gingrich surges in South Carolina," —  RealClearPolitics, (01/20/2012)

South Carolina Primary Results
Fmr. Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-GA): 209,067 (32.3%)
Mr. Donald Trump (R-NY): 200,354 (31.0%)
Fmr. Governor Mitt Romney (R-UT): 160,123 (24.7%)
Fmr. Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX): 78,360 (12.1%)

"South Carolina Upset: Trump neck and neck with Gingrich, Romney places distant third," —  CNN, (01/22/2012)

2012 Republican Primary Polling (01/23/2012)
 Mr. Donald Trump (R-NY): 29.1%
Fmr. Governor Mitt Romney (R-UT): 28.7%
Fmr. Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-GA): 27.3%
Fmr. Represenative Ron Paul (R-TX): 15.7%

"Anaylsis: Trump gains momentum as GOP Primary heats up," —  New York Times, (01/23/2012)

"Trump and Romney spar at Florida Debate," —  MSNBC, (01/23/2012)

"This election is going to come down to a question of leadership. When people choose the president of the United States, they are looking for a person who is able to lead this country in a very critical time. Mr. Trump has been the leader of a company which has gotten itself into several bankrupcies and irresponsible ventures. We can see from his own buisness that Trump is an erratic, irresponsible man who has no concept of either leadership or responsiblity," Mitt Romney during the GOP Debate in Tampa, Florida (01/23/2012)

"First of all Mitt, I have ran a tremendoulsy successful company. I've been far more successful than you and the numbers show that. Secondly, I would be careful talking about your leadership experience. When you were the chair of the Governors Association in 2006, we lost a whole lot of elections we should have won. I also think your record as Governor speaks for itself, so don't talk to me about leadership," Donald Trump responding to Mitt Romney during the GOP Debate in Tampa, Florida (01/23/2012)

GOP Primary Map (as of 02/08/2012)

Donald Trump: 164 Projected Delegates
Mitt Romney: 75 Projected Delegates
Newt Gingrich: 68 Projected Delegates
Ron Paul: 56 Projected Delegates

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Part Three: The Stop Trump Movement

As Trump secured the lead in both national polling and delegates, the "joke" candidate's nomination became an inevitability. The possibility of a Trump nomination concerned prominent politicians within the RNC. A collation of insider figures and rich donors within the Republican party came together to attempt to broker the convention. Their goal was to convince enough Republicans in the remaining states that Donald Trump was an unelectable candidate and that the only way to defeat Barack Obama in November would be to nominate Mitt Romney, who they believed would have the best shot at victory.

However, once their plan became clear to the rest of the party, Trump's popularity only grew.

"Trump sweeps seven of ten Super Tuesday states," — The Hill, (03/07/2012)

GOP Primary Map (Post-Super Tuesday)

Donald Trump: 359 projected delegates

Mitt Romney: 161 projected delegates

Ron Paul: 150 projected delegates

Newt Gingrich: 105 projected delegates

"Romney camp doubles down despite disappointing Super Tuesday results,"  — Fox News, (03/08/2012)

"Former President George W. Bush and other prominent Republicans endorse Romney," — CNN, (03/11/2012)

"Trump, Romney within 1 point in latest Primary Polling," — ABC, (03/13/2012)

GOP Primary Polling (as of 03/13/12)

Mr. Donald Trump (R-NY): 41.5%
Fmr. Governor Mitt Romney (R-UT): 40.9%
Fmr. Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-GA): 32.8%
Fmr. Representative Ron Paul (R-TX): 15.4%

"Donald Trump is a liar and a fraud. His rhetoric sounds convincing, but it is shallow and meaningless. He will do nothing for his country and is only in this race for himself. He is trying to divide this party for his own electoral benefit. The best way to stop this is to unite together," Mitt Romney during a campaign event in Alabama (03/13/2012)

"What has Mitt Romney done to benefit the country? Frankly, I can't think of anything. People say he's this great politician, but no one ever can tell you anything that he has done. He hasn't done anything for you and he'll only benefit the establishment if he's elected," Donald Trump during a campaign rally in Mississippi (03/13/2012)

"Trump counties to sweep primaries, despite growing opposition from Romney camp,"  — CNN, (03/30/2012)

"Gingrich suspends campaign after repeated losses in southern states, endorses Trump,"  — Fox News, (04/03/2012)

"Donald Trump is a fighter. He tells it like it is and he never backs down from any sort of intimidation from the Democrat Party and their buddies in the media. I proudly endorse him for the Republican nomination," Newt Gingrich endorsing Donald Trump, (04/03/12)

"Romney hopes for potential last minute comeback after shocking Maryland victory," — AP  (04/04/12)

"Romney racks up additional upsets in Delaware, Rhode Island as GOP insiders warn of brokered convention" — MSNBC (04/29/2012)

GOP Primary Map (as of 04/30/2012)

Donald Trump: 612 projected delegates

Mitt Romney: 359 projected delegates

Ron Paul: 161 projected delegates

"Trump questions legitimacy of primary process, hints at potential independent bid in campaign rally," — The New York Times (05/02/12)

"They're trying to steal this primary from us, frankly, because they know they cannot beat us legitmantly. Don't worry, even if Romney somehow gets the nomination, we aren't going to stop fighting. Believe me," Donald Trump during a campaign rally in Texas (05/02/12)

"Latest Primary Polling: Romney gains last second momentum as race unexpectly tightens in final months," — RealClearPolitics (05/08/12)

2012 Republican Primary Polling (01/23/2012)

Mr. Donald Trump (R-NY): 40.1%
Fmr. Governor Mitt Romney (R-UT): 39.2%
Fmr. Represenative Ron Paul (R-TX): 19.4%

"Texas primary results makes Romney win more unlikely, Romney still refuses to concede," — Fox News (05/29/12)

"Why is he still in the race? He needs to win practically every delegate to win. That isn't going to happen. We're up in California, we're up in New Jersey. Nobody cares anymore, Mitt. Drop the hell out," Donald Trump during a campaign rally in California (05/30/12)

"Trump 54 delegates away from securing nomination after wins in California and New Jersey," — AP (06/05/12)

"BREAKING: Romney finally concedes race, refuses to endorse Trump," — Washington Post (06/09/12)

Final GOP Primary Map

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Part Four: Fading Dream

Rick Dikeman/Wikimedia Commons

As Donald Trump became the presumptive Republican Nominee, his campaign shifted its attention towards the incumbent President Barack Obama. Obama's popularity remained low. Despite riding into the White House on a wave of optimism, many in Obama's 2008 collation had begun to become disillusioned with his promises of hope and change. Many believed that Obama did little to shake up the status quo in Washington. He was also viewed as an ineffective President by many since he failed to quickly recover the economy and continued to keep American troops in Afghanistan and Iraq. The Trump campaign sought to capitalize on these voters who voted for Obama in 2008 and were now disillusioned.

Trump's messaging began to shift towards Obamacare. He frequently criticized the legislation as ineffective and bloated, as many of his Republican rivals did during the primary, but he also called attention to Big Pharma's involvement and the benefits they received from Obamacare. He labeled Obamacare as a "handout to Big Pharma," messaging which resonated with a sizeable portion of moderate voters. Trump promised to repeal Obamacare and work with states to utilize Medicare in order to replace it. Many deficit hawks, including Ron Paul, were highly critical of Trump's proposed plan. However, the proposal was popular with moderate voters and even many within the GOP.

"Trump selects Former Governor Mike Huckabee as running mate," AP News (07/23/12)

"I have complete and total confidence that Donald Trump is going to bring the Republican Party back to the White House come November and make Barack Obama a one-term President," Mike Huckabee upon being selected as Trump's running mate (07/23/12)

2012 General Election Polling Average (as of 08/01/12) Obama +2.6

President Barack Obama/Vice President Joe Biden (D)- 47.6%
Mr. Donald Trump/ Fmr. Governor Mike Huckabee (R)- 44.9%

Obama Approval Rating (as of 08/01/12): Disapprove + 9.4
Disapprove: 55.5%
Approve: 46.7%

RCP Electoral Map (as of 08/01/22)

"OBAMA TO SUPPORTERS: YOU DIDN'T BUILD THAT," Brietbart (08/02/12)

"Trump creates "We Built That" merchandize in response to controversial Obama comment," Fox News (08/04/12)

"By the way, did you hear what Obama said the other day? 'You didn't build that,' absolute insanity. He's trying to say that people are not responsible for their own success, which of course is a complete lie," Donald Trump responding to President Obama's comment (08/06/12)

"Donald Trump is doing what he does best: lying. Of course, I did in no way mean to suggest that Americans are not responsible for their own success. But no matter what I say, the truth does not matter to Donald Trump," Barack Obama responding to Trump (08/09/12)

"Biden suggests Trump will put immigrants 'in chains' to mostly Latino audience," CNN (08/14/12)

"Mitt Romney refuses speaker slot at RNC," AP (08/16/12)

2012 Republican National Convention

By the time the 2012 RNC began, Trump's hold on the GOP solidified. Most prominent Republican politicians began to bregudingly support the presumptive nominee as the election drew nearer. While there were some notable figures such as Mitt Romney and Former President George W. Bush who refused to go to the convention, most within the party sought to unify around Trump in order to defeat Obama. The Trump Campaign also successfully influenced the party's platform. A proposed endorsement of guest worker visa expansions was shot down in favor of an endorsement for Trump's preferred immigration policies such as his signature border wall. A constitutional amendment protecting the santity of marriage and ending the Federal Income Tax were also added to the platform. The convention was centered around a theme of restoring America's prestige.

"For four years, we have been governed by a man with very little experience and since taking office, he has taken an interest in blaming his predecessor and political opposition for his problems rather than actually governing," Mike Huckabee upon accepting the nomination for Vice President (08/29/12)

Nicolas Pinault/Wikimedia Commons

"The Presidency of Barack Obama has completely weakened our country. He has made us poorer, weaker, and more dependent on foreign nations. He has accelerated America's worrying path towards embracing the dangerous ideology of globalism. Our enemies have sensed our weakness, and have taken advantage of us. I promise as president, I will put America First! We will become stronger, richer and more independent. I have complete confidence that all of this will be accomplished, not because of me, but because of you: the great men and women of this country who have been so restricted by this administration," Donald Trump upon accepting the Republican Nomination for President (08/30/12)

2012 General Election Polling Average (as of 08/31/12) Obama +0.8
President Barack Obama/Vice President Joe Biden (D)- 47%
Mr. Donald Trump/ Fmr. Governor Mike Huckabee (R)- 46.2%

2012 Democratic National Convention

As Barack Obama continued to lose momentum and popularity, the Democrats were hopeful that the convention would give him a much needed boost. Growing unrest on the left raised concerns of protests during the convention. The growing Occupy Wall Street Movement promised to have a presence at the convention, protesting the Obama Adminstration's embrace of the military industrial complex and corporate interests. Party elites became extremely concerned that these protests would create a media spetacle which would create an impression of a disunified party. More progressive politicans such as Elizabeth Warren were not given speaking slots at the convention due to these fears and steps were taken to protect the convention site from protests. Despite the efforts, protests from supporters of Occupy Wall Street broke out near the convention and caught the attention of the media. Some delegates at the convention were supportive of the protests and sought to disrupt convention activities.

"Progressive delegates disrupt convention during Senator John Kerry's speech," Washington Post (09/06/12)

"Occupy Wall Street supporters heckle Biden on convention floor for support of the Iraq War," CNN (09/06/12)

Courtesty of Voice of America/Wikimedia Commons

"We must reject the division and disunity that this election cycle has unfortunately given rise to. The only way that we are going to make our country better is if all Americans, regardless of race or political ideology, come together and face the challenges of our current day. My opponent seeks to exploit the worse of America. He preys on our anger, our fear of other cultures and our longing for a nostalglic past that never existed only to benefit himself," Barack Obama accepting the re-nomination for President (09/06/12)

"Obama and Biden escorted out of convention early after Occupy Wall Street led protests erupt on convention floor," AP News (09/06/12)

"Dozens injured on convention floor in aftermath of DNC protests," CNN (09/06/12)

"Right after Obama lectured us about 'coming together' and all of that nonsense, the Occupy Wall Street people began to riot on the convention floor. You cannot make this stuff up, folks," Rush Limbaugh (09/07/12)

"Debbie Wasserman Schultz resigns as DNC Chair after protests on convention floor," NBC (09/08/12)

"Trump Campaign uses footage of DNC Protests in newest attack ad, labels Democrats as 'violent and radical,'" New York Times (09/08/12)

"Obama Campaign silent on DNC floor protests and Schultz resignation," Fox News (09/08/12)

"White House Press Secretary Jay Carney REFUSES to answer question on Schultz resignation," Breitbart (09/09/12)

"Trump takes the lead in first national poll since the DNC," RealClearPolitics (09/09/12)

Pew Research 2012 Poll (09/08/12) Trump + 1.3
Mr. Donald Trump/ Fmr. Governor Mike Huckabee (R)- 49.4%
President Barack Obama/Vice President Joe Biden (D)- 48.1%

[OSR STANDS WITH PALESTINE]

Come on Barry! You can do it!

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Part Five: Say Their Names

Gage Skidmore/Wikimedia Commons

After violent protests on the floor of the DNC, the Democrats were in disarray. The protests led many to believe that the party was disunified and created a perception of larger civil unrest around the nation. Occupy Wall Street only became more vocal after the DNC and major protests broke out in Washington D.C. and New York City in the following weeks. The Obama Campaign tried hard to distance itself from the Occupy Wall Street movement and try to convey an image of stability within both his campaign and administration, but Obama's problems only worsened as he was about to face one of the biggest controversies of his entire administration.

"BREAKING: American compound attacked in Benghazi, Libya," CNN (09/11/12)

"Absolutely tragic and horrific to hear about what happened in Benghazi today. My thoughts and prayers and with the victims and the families of the four Americans who lost their lives today," @realdonaldtrump (09/11/12)

"Obama Administration blames release of anti-Muslim video on Benghazi attack," New York Times (09/17/12)

Lawrence Jackson/Wikimedia Commons

"Extremists used this video as a justification to attack our embassies. The video was extremely offensive to those who practice the Muslim religion, but of course, that is no excuse for the violence we saw," Barack Obama during an interview on the Late Show with David Letterman (09/18/12)

"Trump slams Obama's response to Benghazi attack in Virginia rally," Fox News (09/19/12)

"President Obama, Susan Rice, and others are going around to all of these television stations and blaming an online video for this terrorist attack. Let's call it what it is: a terrorist attack because no one is calling it that. This was not some spontaneous reaction to a video, like Obama and the lying mainstream media want you to believe, this was a pre-planned and coordinated attack against our nation," Donald Trump speaking during a rally in Charlottesville, Virginia

"Trump makes unsubstituted claim that attack on Benghazi was pre-planned," CNN (09/20/12)

"Spokesman for Director of National Intelligence refutes Trump's claim of pre-planned attack in Benghazi," Washington Post (09/21/12)

"President Obama denounces Middle Eastern unrest in speech before United Nations General Assembly," BBC (09/25/12)

"This crude and disgusting video sparked outrage throughout the Muslim world, and in part lead to the violence and unrest that we saw in Libya a few weeks ago. No video can justify the spontaneous violence and killings of the innocent," President Obama before the United Nations General Assembly (09/25/12)

"New footage of Benghazi compound shows no protests prior to embassy attack, contradicting Obama administration's claims," Fox News (09/26/12)

Fox News has obtained amateur footage from the night of the Benghazi Attack which shows there were no protests preceding the assault on the compound. The footage contradicts claims made by prominent Obama Administration officials that the attack was originated from spontaneous protests outside of the compound.

"State Department: No protests outside Benghazi compound," CNN (09/28/12)

A senior State Department official confirmed today that there were no protests outside of the Benghazi embassy on the night of Sep. 11. This contradicts initial statements by the administration which suggested the attacks were a reaction to an anti-Muslim online video.

"Barack Obama lied to the American people. Susan Rice, Sneaky Susan I call her, went on dozens of news networks and told everyone that this attack happened because of a video. Now, the state department admitted that was a complete and total lie. All of these lies because Obama does not want to claim responsibility for completely botching his response to this terrorist attack. How incredibly disrespectful to the four brave Americans who lost their lives," Donald Trump during a rally in Celina, Ohio (09/30/12)

"Mr. Trump is incorrect when he says that the President lied to the American people. When the President said that the attack was a spontaneous reaction to an anti-Islamic video, he was going off what was at the time believed to be the best information provided to him by both the State Department and the CIA," Press Secretary Jay Carney (10/01/12)

"Security beefed up for first Presidential Debate in Denver," New York Times (10/02/12)

Jamelle Bouie/Wikimedia Commons

Security measures are now being prepared in anticipation of tomorrow's first Presidential Debate at the University of Denver in Denver, Colorado. Roads within a three-mile radius have of the university have been blocked off in preparation for expected demonstrations from both Occupy Wall Street and Tea Party supporters. Police in the area have also been equipped with riot controlling equipment such as riot shields and tear gas.

General Election Polling Average (as of 10/02/12): Obama + 1.2

President Barack Obama/ Vice President Joe Biden (D)- 47.8%
Mr. Donald Trump/ Fmr. Governor Mike Huckabee (R)- 46.6% 

Obama Approval Rating: Disapprove + 4.5

Disapprove: 49.8%
Approve: 45.3%

RCP Electoral Map (as of 10/02/12)

Changes to Electoral Map since 08/01/12:

Trump: + 16 Electoral Votes
Obama: -16 Electoral Votes

Nevada: Tossup to Lean Dem
Colorado: Lean Dem to Tossup
Missouri: Likely Rep to Safe Rep
Iowa: Lean Dem to Tossup
Indiana: Lean Rep to Likely Rep
Pennsylvania: Lean Dem to Tossup
Virginia: Tossup to Lean Dem
North Carolina: Tossup to Lean Rep
Minnesota: Likely Dem to Lean Dem

[paxamericana]

Part Six: The Race Tightens

The Benghazi attacks raised the stakes of the 2012 election significantly. Republicans of all ideological strides came together to criticize the Obama administration's response to the attacks. The revelation that there were no protests outside of the compound, which contradicted what the administration had doubled down on in the days following the attack, further hurt the Obama campaign and further united the Republicans in opposition of Obama. The Democrats became extremely defensive towards Trump's increased attacks of Obama, which increased tensions on both sides of the political aisle. The Occupy Wall Street movement had also been gaining momentum from the attack, lending credence to the argument that the system does not value them in the eyes of many leftists.

Because of the increase of tensions and division, many were afraid that the tensions would boil over into physical violence in a similar fashion to the 2012 DNC protests. The nation held its breath as both Occupy Wall Street and the Tea Party movement announced their plans to protest the first Presidential Debate.

First Presidential Debate

University of Denver- October 03, 2012

Hosted by: Jim Lehrer of PBS

The first presidential debate focused on the economy, healthcare and the role of government. Lehrer did not ask President Obama any questions regarding the attack in Benghazi, something which Trump was critical of both during and after the debate. Ultimately, most watchers of the debate believed that Trump had the better performance. Many pointed to Trump's energetic performance as compared to Obama's more melancholy rhetoric during the debate. Obama also refused to address direct challenges from Trump regarding the inconsistencies in the administration's response to the Benghazi attacks, which many observers tallied as a point against the incumbent president. A common criticism of Trump's performance was that he frequently disrupted Obama during the debate. Many on the left also argued that he focused too much on Benghazi and failed to flesh out his own policy proposals. 

Notable Statements

"Because of the resilience and the determination of the American people, we have begun to fight our way back. Over the last 30 months, we have seen 5 million new jobs in the private sector created, the auto industry has come roaring back and the housing industry has recovered significantly. But, we all know that we have a lot of work to do," Barack Obama addressing a question on the economy. 

"Unlike my opponent, I have actually spoken to people who have lost their jobs. All over the country, people still cannot find work. Factories are shutting down and our jobs are being shipped overseas to Mexico, China and many other places. I am going to put a stop to that. As President, I will penalize companies who ship their jobs overseas, decrease worker visas and give tax incentives to companies who chose to build things here in this country," Donald Trump addressing his economic policy.     

"We did work on this [healthcare] alongside working on jobs because this is part of making sure that middle class families are secure in this country. Unlike what Mr. Trump is trying to argue, the program is working," Barack Obama addressing a question on healthcare.

"I'm not sure what numbers you are looking at, Barack but your healthcare plan is not working. Premiums are through the roof, taxes have been raised by a trillion dollars, Big Pharma has more influence on our healthcare system than ever before. No one in congress knew what was even in the bill until they voted on it, so it's hard to blame them, frankly. Obamacare has not worked in the slightest," Donald Trump addressing a question on healthcare.

"Why aren't you asking Obama about Benghazi? Four Americans died and no one is talking about it anymore. Why is that? Are you trying to make Obama look good, Jim?" Donald Trump criticizing Jim Lehrer's performance as moderator. 


"Several injured during clashes with police outside of University of Denver," CNN (10/03/12)

"Dozens of Occupy Wall Street protestors arrested in aftermath of debate protests," Fox News (10/04/12)

"Obama criticizes Occupy Wall Street in statement," NBC (10/04/12)

Pete Souza/Wikimedia Commons

"Not all in the Occupy movement are violent people, but there has clearly been a problem within their movement of violence. For the sake of all Americans, Occupy Wall Street must create concise leadership and purge these extremists from their ranks," Barack Obama during a campaign stop in Virginia (10/04/12) 

"Trump calls for government to designate Occupy Wall Street a domestic terrorist organization," ABC (10/05/12)

Marc Nozell/Wikimedia Commons

"Enough is enough. These people have proven themselves to be violent radicals, they are terrorists. As President, we will crack down on Occupy Wall Street and similar radical leftist organizations and designate them as terrorist organizations," Donald Trump during a campaign stop in New Hampshire (10/05/12)

"Republican attack ad revives birther conspiracy," Washington Post (10/06/12)


An ad created by a Republican PAC revives the conspiracy theory that President Barack Obama was not born in the United States. The ad features debunked claims that Obama was born in Kenya and claims that his long form birth certificate was a forgery. Neither the RNC or the Trump Campaign have commented on the advertisement. It is unclear at this time if the advert was made under the approval of the Trump Campaign.

"Trump Campaign denies involvement in birther ad in a statement ," Fox News (10/08/12)

"Key Republicans pull endorsements of Trump in aftermath of birther ad," CNN (10/09/12)

"Huckabee doges questions about birther conspiracy during Vice Presidential Debate," ABC (10/11/12)

"Trump distances himself from birther movement during Florida Rally," Fox News (10/12/12)

"Barack Obama was born in the United States. Period. That has been settled. They released the birth certificate, in part because of me by the way. In the beginning, there were concerns and questions but we have all of the evidence now that Obama was telling the truth," Donald Trump during a rally in Florida (10/12/12)

General Election Polling Average: Obama + 2.5

President Barack Obama/Vice President Joe Biden (D)- 48.9%

Mr. Donald Trump/Fmr. Governor Mike Huckabee (R)- 46.4%

Obama Approval Rating: Disapprove +2.9

Disapprove: 48.5%

Approve: 45.6%

RCP Electoral Map (as of 10/15/12)

Changes to Electoral Map Since 10/02/12

Trump: - 2 Electoral Votes

Obama: + 13 Electoral Votes

Virginia: Lean Dem to Tossup
Pennsylvania: Tossup to Lean Dem
Iowa: Tossup to Lean Dem
Nebraska's 2nd CD: Lean Rep to Tossup
Maine's 2nd CD: Lean Rep to Tossup
Michigan: Lean Dem to Likely Dem

[paxamericana]

Part Seven: Showtime

After a long and devisive campaign cycle, the presidential campaign had entered its final week at last. Obama had gained support in the final weeks of October, boosted by recent signs of economic growth and controversies from his opponent. Trump had continued to make controversial statements that alienated many moderate voters. His performances at the last two presidential debates were controversial, as he interrupted more frequently and used controversial rhetoric. Obama's campaign pushed a highly offensive strategy in the last stretch of the campaign, using Trump's debate performances and frequent bombastic comments to argue that he would run a chaotic administration. Meanwhile, Trump doubled down on his attacks towards Obama and argued that the country was less safe, free and prosperous because of him.  

General Election Polling Average (10/30/12): Obama +3.4

President Barack Obama/Vice President Joe Biden (D)- 50.5%
Mr. Donald Trump/ Fmr. Governor Mike Huckabee (R)- 47.1%

Map with Tossups:

Map without Tossups:

"Obama, Trump visit New York and New Jersey in aftermath of Hurricane Sandy," NPR (10/31/12)

"Mitt Romney gives speech urging Republicans to 'carefully consider' presidential vote, suggests third party vote is best option," Fox News (11/01/12)

"Tea Party advocates hold massive D.C. rally in support of Trump," Politco (11/02/12)

"Dozens arrested as progressive advocates clash with Tea Party in D.C.," AP (11/02/12)

"National Guard deployed in D.C. as protests outside White House become more hostile, D.C. under state of emergency," Washington Post (11/02/12)

"Obama decries Trump's 'tolerance of violence' during Tea Party D.C. demonstration," CNN (11/03/12)

"Former Governor Jeb Bush calls on Trump to denounce violent pro-Trump protestors in D.C, withdraws endorsement," New York Times (11/03/12)

"Anaylsis: Trump's silence on D.C. Tea Party Protest could hurt him in critical suburban areas," FiveThirtyEight (11/04/12)

"Red Hot Chilli Peppers, Pink, Jay-Z to headline final Obama rally in Florida," (11/05/12)

Becker1999/Wikimedia Commons

"Despite what Donald Trump tells you, we have made extraordinary progress during my administration. Our economy is recovering and more Americans are on health insurance than ever before thanks to the Affordable Care Act. Mr. Trump wants to undo all of this progress and, most concerning of all, undo all of the progress and strides we have made towards equality over the last 60 years," Barack Obama during his final campaign rally (11/06/12)  

"Trump hammers culture war messaging in the final stretch of the campaign, despite violent protests days earlier" The Guardian (11/06/12)

"The American Dream is dead and our country is being taken advantage of like never before.  Our culture is decaying, our country is being stolen from us, our cities are burning and our economy is collapsing. The Obama administration sits by and lets it happen. That's not going to happen under our watch. We will take it back. We will make America strong again. We will make America safe again. We will make America great again," Donald Trump during his final campaign stop in Ohio (11/06/12)

Election Night

After a seemingly endless campaign cycle, the night of the election finally arrived. The Obama Campaign became extremely optimistic in the final days, despite polling showing a higher than expected race. The Tea Party protests had dominated the news cycle in the final days of the campaign and Trump refused to accept the accusations that he had supported the violence. Obama hammered this point home and believed that portraying Trump as a radical and alienating figure would help him with critical swing voters. Trump called the accusations "a complete farce" and targeted his growing number of Republican critics.

"Good evening, America and welcome to Fox News's coverage of the 2012 Presidential Election. I am Bret Baier. We are minutes away from the first polls in the nation closing in one of the most expensive and divisive elections to date. Barack Obama is battling for a second term while his challenger, Donald Trump, seeks to completely upend conventional trends. By the end of the night, one of these men will be declared the winner of the 57th Presidential Election in American history," Brett Baier (5:50 PM)

"Fox News can now project that Donald Trump will win the states of Kentucky and Indiana," Megan Kelly (6:00 PM)

"It is now 7:00 PM on the east coast and polls have closed in several states, including the crucial swing state of Florida where the race is excruciatingly close, so close that Fox News exit polls cannot characterize if either candidate has a slight lead. We also cannot make any projections at this time in the crucial state of Virigina, though Obama is leading at this time. We can project that Donald Trump will win the state of South Carolina and that President Obama will win the state of Vermont," Brett Baier (7:00 PM)

Editors Note: States with over a five percent lead for one candidate is shaded in light red or light blue. "Too Close to Call" indicates no candidate is within a five percent lead at that time.

"Looking at the map so far in Florida, it looks like Trump is hitting those necessary margins so far. He is underperforming in those more suburban counties, but is improving on McCain's margins nevertheless. The real story is his performance in the rural continues, especially on the panhandle. He has overperformed McCain in almost every single county along the panhandle so far, which could spell trouble for the Obama campaign. It is still too early to decide, but there are a lot of positive indicators for Mr. Trump in this state," Bill Hemmer (7:24 PM)

"We now have about 20 percent of the vote counted in Virgina and President Obama is still in the lead. However, Trump is catching up with the President and those marigns are thinning. Most troubling for the President, he is so far underperforming in historically Democratic counties in the Southwest of the state. Similar to what we have been seeing throughout the night, Trump is overperforming in the rural counties and underperforming in the suburbs," Bill Hemmer (7:25 PM)

"The next round of polls have just closed and Fox News can now project that Trump will carry the state of West Virigina with its 5 electoral votes. The two crucial battleground states of Ohio and North Carolina remain too close to call at this hour," Brett Baier (7:30 PM)

"Donald Trump has taken the lead in Florida with almost 65 percent of the vote counted. At this hour, Fox News can project that Republicans will maintain control of the House of Representatives. We can also project that Trump will win Georgia's 16 electoral votes," Megan Kelley (7:43 PM)

"I wouldn't panic just yet if I was on Obama's campaign. He's still got a lead in Ohio with 50 percent of the vote counted, there's a lot of votes left uncounted in North Carolina and he's so far running even with his performance four years ago in a lot of those key counties. Virigina is also looking very good for the President, almost 70 percent counted there. Trump's performing better than anyone could have imagned, but the race is far from over," Bob Becknel (7:51 PM)

"A huge slew of poll closures at this hour and lots of projects at this hour. President Obama will handly win the states of Maryland, Delaware, Connecticut, Massachusetts and Rhode Island. Mr. Trump will take the states of Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kansas, and Oklahoma. The states of Missouri, New Jeresey, New Hampshire and Texas are too close to call," Brett Baier (8:00 PM)

"We have a major projection at this hour: President Obama will very narrowly win the state of Virginia. A relief for the Obama campaign and a major blow to Trump's path to victory," Megan Kelley (8:07 PM)

"It's looking like Obama is going to win Virginia by an extremely slim margin, probably less than a percentage point by the time all of the votes have been counted. Trump still has some paths to victory, but there are not too many without Virginia," Britt Hume (8:10 PM)

"It is now 8:30 and another round of polls have closed. With this, we can project that Donald Trump will win the state of Arkansas and the state of North Dakota. We can also project at Mr. Trump will win the state of Texas and President Obama will win the state of New Jersey at this hour," Brett Baier (8:30 PM)

"With 55 percent of the vote counted in Ohio, Donald Trump has now taken the lead in the critical swing state. 90 percent of the vote has now been counted in Florida, but it still remains too close to call. Mr. Trump has a slim lead over President Obama. Most of the vote outstanding is coming from urban counties, with some of the vote left uncounted in Republican-friendly panhandle counties," Megan Kelley (8:39 PM)

[Independents for George Santos]

Glad I caught this TL! Intrigued to see how it plays out.

[paxamericana]

"Another major projection can now be made: Donald Trump will win the state of Florida with its 29 electoral votes. A must-win state for Mr. Trump," Bret Baier (8:45 PM)

Final Florida Results: Trump + 2.4

Trump: 4,317,890 (50.5%)
Obama: 4,005,678 (48.1%)

"I am shocked that we were able to call the state this early. It is also significant that all of the votes were counted this early on into the night, very surprising for the state of Florida. Trump's margin in Florida, 2.4 points, is extremely shocking as well. Obama had a narrow lead in the polling, many of us foresaw that Trump had a slight advantage here despite that, but none of us saw this coming. Now, Obama can still win without Florida. However, if the results and trends of this state is an indication for what is to come, President Obama should be very worried," Britt Hume (8:51 PM)

"It is now 9 o'clock on the east coast and more polls across the nation have closed. The states of Louisiana, South Dakota, Wyoming and Nebraska at-large will all fall in Mr. Trump's column. Fox News also projects President Obama will win the state of New York, Donald Trump's home state and his home state of Illinois. At this time, we cannot call Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District, Minnesota, Colorado, Michigan, New Mexico, Maine, Pennsylvania or Wisconsin," Brett Baier (9:00 PM)

"Fox News can now project that Donad Trump will win Maine's Second Congressional District.  A surprising victory for the Republican Nominee," Brett Baier (9:13 PM)

"Another major projection at this hour: The state of New Mexico can now be called by the Fox News Decision Desk by Barack Obama," Megan Kelley (9:23 PM)

"We have nearly 75 percent of the vote counted in Ohio and Donald Trump is still in the lead. This is a must-win state for both candidates and so far, Trump is looking very good here. Several rural counties that voted for Obama in 2008 have flipped. Now, there is a lot of votes left to count in urban areas, there could a chance for the President to gain the lead. The President's path is looking narrower and narrower as the night pushes on," Chris Wallace (9:45 PM)

"10:00 o'clock on the east coast now and polls have closed in several more states. The states of Montana, Utah, Arizona, and Idaho will go to Donald Trump. The critical swing states of Nevada and Iowa are too close to call at this hour," Brett Baier (10:00 PM)

"The state of Michigan can now be called for President Obama at this hour. Much more close than expected," Brett Baier (10:11 PM)

"Fox News has a major call to make at this hour: the state of North Carolina will go to Donald Trump. A major battleground state, this gives Trump 206 electoral votes to Obama's 123," Megan Kelley (10:23 PM)

Final North Carolina Results: Trump + 3.5

Trump: 2,467,495 (51.3%)
Obama: 2,049,451 (47.8%)

"Fox News can now project President Obama will win the states of Minnesota and Maine at Large. This gives the President 149 Electoral Votes to Donald Trump's 233," Brett Baier (10:33 PM)

"It is now 11:00 o'clock and polls have closed in all but two states. With this, we can now project that President Obama will win the states of California, Oregon, and Washington. This gives the President 225 Electoral votes compared to Mr. Trump's 233," Megan Kelley (11:00 PM)

"Major projection at this hour: the state of New Hampshire will go to Donald Trump. This places Trump back in the Electoral lead with 237 electoral votes," Brett Baier (11:12 PM)

Final New Hampshire Results: Trump + 0.5

Trump: 347,524 (48.9%)
Obama: 345,426 (48.4%)

"The state of Wisconsin can now be called for President Obama. A sign of hope for the Obama campaign," Megan Kelley (11:31 PM)

Final Wisconsin Results: Obama + 0.2

Obama: 1,403,457 (49.8%)
Trump: 1,395,452 (49.6%)

"The state of Iowa can now be called for Donald Trump. Trump will win the state by a surprisingly wide margin," Brett Baier (11:43 PM)

Final Iowa Results: Trump + 5.7

Trump: 792,346 (51.3%)
Obama: 661,472 (45.6%)

"Another major projection: Donald Trump will carry the critical battleground state of Ohio. After leading throughout the night, Trump looks to carry the state by a margin of at least 6 points. An extremely surprising margin for Mr. Trump," Meagan Kelley (11:51 PM)

Final Ohio Results: Trump + 6.1

Trump: 2,673,598 (50.9%)
Obama: 2,209,476 (44.8%)

"Look, we are looking at a situation where there are only a couple of battleground states still out there. We basically know how the rest of the country has gone. The President will have to win every single remaining state if he wants to win reelection. Now, that is not impossible, but that is a very tight path of victory. It is safe to say things are not looking good for President Obama," Britt Hume (11:53 PM)

"We now have a major call to make: Donald Trump has won the state of Colorado, tipping him over the edge to 270 electoral votes. Fox News can now project that Donald Trump will become the 45th President of the United States. Trump pulling off a shocking victory to end an unreal, surreal election cycle," Brett Baier (12:34 AM)

Gage Skidmore/Wikimedia Commons

"Today is not just a victory for my campaign, but more importantly, a long overdue victory for the forgotten men and women of this country who have for too long been left behind by the elites of this country who are more interested in furthering globalism than American prosperity," Donald Trump delivering his victory speech (11/07/12)

[Vice President Christian Man]

I was close with my original prediction. I look forward to reading what Trump's first term looks like.

[BigVic]

My original Romney win scenario prediction swap VA with ME-02