How did Youngkin turn out rural white low propensity voters?

[Adam Griffin]

On a side note, do you have any more of these? I'd be interested to see ones for North Carolina and New Jersey, but only if you have already got the figures and map.

They're easy enough to make via DRA, but limits on data and geographic delineation can make it more difficult to make equal comparisons (see below).

For NJ, there's no 2020-21 data, so I used 2018 compared to 2020 VAP. It does seem that the lower turnout areas in non-solid D areas saw the biggest swings to Rs this year, backing up the "low propensity" turnout effect.

NC is more difficult to do simply because there are tons of mid-sized metro areas and with what's left, it's hard to group disparate rural areas into one "region" that makes cultural sense. However, it's pretty easy to see a difference in turnout between the most D part of the state versus places like the southeastern part of the state (where Ds have hemorrhaged most over the past few years).

[lfromnj]

On a side note, do you have any more of these? I'd be interested to see ones for North Carolina and New Jersey, but only if you have already got the figures and map.

They're easy enough to make via DRA, but limits on data and geographic delineation can make it more difficult to make equal comparisons (see below).

For NJ, there's no 2020-21 data, so I used 2018 compared to 2020 VAP. It does seem that the lower turnout areas in non-solid D areas saw the biggest swings to Rs this year, backing up the "low propensity" turnout effect.

NC is more difficult to do simply because there are tons of mid-sized metro areas and with what's left, it's hard to group disparate rural areas into one "region" that makes cultural sense. However, it's pretty easy to see a difference in turnout between the most D part of the state versus places like the southeastern part of the state (where Ds have hemorrhaged most over the past few years).

Put Brunswick with the Coastal for NC pls

[Adam Griffin]

Put Brunswick with the Coastal for NC pls

Yeah, that makes more sense (and has a pretty big impact on turnout for the two affected regions).

[New England Fire Squad]

Previously non voting or former Democrat voting rural or blue collar people were activated by Trump, and this is starting to look like a permanent shift. It's been incredibly evident in my home region of Eastern CT as well.

[beesley]

On a side note, do you have any more of these? I'd be interested to see ones for North Carolina and New Jersey, but only if you have already got the figures and map.

They're easy enough to make via DRA, but limits on data and geographic delineation can make it more difficult to make equal comparisons (see below).

For NJ, there's no 2020-21 data, so I used 2018 compared to 2020 VAP. It does seem that the lower turnout areas in non-solid D areas saw the biggest swings to Rs this year, backing up the "low propensity" turnout effect.

NC is more difficult to do simply because there are tons of mid-sized metro areas and with what's left, it's hard to group disparate rural areas into one "region" that makes cultural sense. However, it's pretty easy to see a difference in turnout between the most D part of the state versus places like the southeastern part of the state (where Ds have hemorrhaged most over the past few years).

Thank you!

[pbrower2a]

The bogey of Critical Race Theory?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

DS held onto Gov for 8 years, they lost the Gov after 8 yrs 2001/2009, 2013/2021 it was going til happen anyways

In 22 except for the Prez Biden Fed Candidates are gonna run with our Gov candidates T Mac only lost by 4 pts, it wasn't a landslide


We're gonna have a larger D Machine turnout in 22 and 24, Newsom won with almost 70 percent

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

It was always a nonsense talking point.

Obama was unpopular among suburban whites and high income whites, so it was not surprising that during the obama midterms, that group would turn out at a high level, compared to groups in the obama coalition.

It didn't mean that it was a general rule that non college whites don't turn out during off year elections.

remember when blacks were said to "not turn out" during midterm elections. Then 2017 alabama and 2018 midterms happened, where black turnout soared.

What about GA run-off? The rural white turn out rate did drop, resulting R losing both seats.

Just to illustrate your point (and show why this trend should be terrifying for Democrats in terms of what's still out there/on the table for the GOP):

-maps-

Those are some ugly maps, but isn't rural Georgia's population declining rather quickly? Abrams lost several rural counties that Carter won four years ago. IIRC either you or someone else here said that rural black voters are fleeing to Atlanta.

This could be Sanford Bishop's undoing at some point, assuming those rural white voters are mostly staying put.

[Schiff for Senate]

Democrats need to understand that raising turnout does not help them.

People cling to this theory that America's nonvoters are poor, dispossessed, disenfranchised people and if we just promise them more and more stuff (Medicare for All, free college, stimulus checks) they will be "mobilized" to turn out and vote for Democrats. And that if Democrats lose an election, it's because turnout wasn't high enough.

A lot of Democrats' outreach to nonvoters in 2020 had the perverse effect of holding people's hands and helping them get to the polls where they voted...for Trump.

Conversely, Republicans need to stop with their conviction that Democrats only win elections because of "voter fraud" and the best way to ensure GOP success is to make it harder for people to vote. They assume any unlikely voters who would be dissuaded by some red tape will be Democrats.

These are good points.

[Calthrina950]

It was always a nonsense talking point.

Obama was unpopular among suburban whites and high income whites, so it was not surprising that during the obama midterms, that group would turn out at a high level, compared to groups in the obama coalition.

It didn't mean that it was a general rule that non college whites don't turn out during off year elections.

remember when blacks were said to "not turn out" during midterm elections. Then 2017 alabama and 2018 midterms happened, where black turnout soared.

What about GA run-off? The rural white turn out rate did drop, resulting R losing both seats.

Just to illustrate your point (and show why this trend should be terrifying for Democrats in terms of what's still out there/on the table for the GOP):

-maps-

Those are some ugly maps, but isn't rural Georgia's population declining rather quickly? Abrams lost several rural counties that Carter won four years ago. IIRC either you or someone else here said that rural black voters are fleeing to Atlanta.

This could be Sanford Bishop's undoing at some point, assuming those rural white voters are mostly staying put.

It's possible that Bishop retires sometime this decade. He's been in office for nearly thirty years, and since John Lewis' death last year, has been the Dean of Georgia's congressional delegation. In fact, he is the only remaining member of the delegation who was elected prior to 2000. Bishop has generally run ahead of the presidential ticket (and he ran ahead of Abrams in 2018), but crossover appeal is declining and as you note, the Black Belt is becoming more Republican.