How did Youngkin turn out rural white low propensity voters?

[David Hume]

People keep saying these low propensity voters won't come out in the off year, without Trump on the ticket. But it turns out not the case.

[SnowLabrador]

Because they're not low-propensity voters. Knowing what we know now, the idea that they were seems ridiculous.

[Matty]

It was always a nonsense talking point.

Obama was unpopular among suburban whites and high income whites, so it was not surprising that during the obama midterms, that group would turn out at a high level, compared to groups in the obama coalition.

It didn't mean that it was a general rule that non college whites don't turn out during off year elections.

remember when blacks were said to "not turn out" during midterm elections. Then 2017 alabama and 2018 midterms happened, where black turnout soared.

[Kamala's side hoe]

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/11/05/youngkin-mcauliffe-politics-virginia-strategy-2021-upset-analysis-519622

TL;DR- McAuliffe kept comparing Youngkin to Trump on guns and abortion

[Bootes Void]

This was a nonsense talking point. Most of the rural voters are not low propensity or whatever nonsense being spewed out

[Adam Griffin]

There are previously low-propensity voters who have become increasingly activated, and the answer is a combination of "polarization" and "culture clash":

[David Hume]

It was always a nonsense talking point.

Obama was unpopular among suburban whites and high income whites, so it was not surprising that during the obama midterms, that group would turn out at a high level, compared to groups in the obama coalition.

It didn't mean that it was a general rule that non college whites don't turn out during off year elections.

remember when blacks were said to "not turn out" during midterm elections. Then 2017 alabama and 2018 midterms happened, where black turnout soared.

What about GA run-off? The rural white turn out rate did drop, resulting R losing both seats.

[Adam Griffin]

It was always a nonsense talking point.

Obama was unpopular among suburban whites and high income whites, so it was not surprising that during the obama midterms, that group would turn out at a high level, compared to groups in the obama coalition.

It didn't mean that it was a general rule that non college whites don't turn out during off year elections.

remember when blacks were said to "not turn out" during midterm elections. Then 2017 alabama and 2018 midterms happened, where black turnout soared.

What about GA run-off? The rural white turn out rate did drop, resulting R losing both seats.

Just to illustrate your point (and show why this trend should be terrifying for Democrats in terms of what's still out there/on the table for the GOP):

[David Hume]

This was a nonsense talking point. Most of the rural voters are not low propensity or whatever nonsense being spewed out

2012 statistics

[David Hume]

This was a nonsense talking point. Most of the rural voters are not low propensity or whatever nonsense being spewed out

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I'm glad, and we should all be glad that more people are taking a permanent interest in politics. The more turnout the better!

[Wormless Gourd]

I think some people had midterm/off-year electorates and coalition trends as being too strongly tied. Trump era midterms/off-year elections had dynamics where non-college whites were a smaller share of voters than the electorate at large and paid attention to politics less outside of presidential years, while minorities and college whites pay more attention.
Makes sense that under a Dem president with solid disapproval ratings this dynamic is almost flipped.

[ElectionsGuy]

Virginia just had 3.3 million people turnout and a Republican won in a D+6 state. Youngkin only got 300K less votes than Trump. McAuliffe got 800K less than Biden.

All indications are that 2022 is going to be a high turnout midterm and a Republican-leaning one at that. This is quite the blow to people that suggested turnout was going to go back down from 2018/2020 and that Democrats necessarily benefit from high turnout. You'd think after the 2020 election turnout was higher than anyone expected, and Trump did better than anyone expected, that this hypothesis would be busted. Now it's even more busted.

[Person Man]

Virginia just had 3.3 million people turnout and a Republican won in a D+6 state. Youngkin only got 300K less votes than Trump. McAuliffe got 800K less than Biden.

All indications are that 2022 is going to be a high turnout midterm and a Republican-leaning one at that. This is quite the blow to people that suggested turnout was going to go back down from 2018/2020 and that Democrats necessarily benefit from high turnout. You'd think after the 2020 election turnout was higher than anyone expected, and Trump did better than anyone expected, that this hypothesis would be busted. Now it's even more busted.

Really will be interesting what voting restrictions will do and whether then they will be repealed.

[ElectionsGuy]

Virginia just had 3.3 million people turnout and a Republican won in a D+6 state. Youngkin only got 300K less votes than Trump. McAuliffe got 800K less than Biden.

All indications are that 2022 is going to be a high turnout midterm and a Republican-leaning one at that. This is quite the blow to people that suggested turnout was going to go back down from 2018/2020 and that Democrats necessarily benefit from high turnout. You'd think after the 2020 election turnout was higher than anyone expected, and Trump did better than anyone expected, that this hypothesis would be busted. Now it's even more busted.

Really will be interesting what voting restrictions will do and whether then they will be repealed.

Given that we've seen nothing but turnout increases in recent elections, especially in states like Georgia and Texas, I can't imagine people view these as voting "restrictions" because they're definitely not successful in restricting the votes, and most people agree with the policies (voter ID, banning ballot harvesting, etc.).

[Person Man]

Virginia just had 3.3 million people turnout and a Republican won in a D+6 state. Youngkin only got 300K less votes than Trump. McAuliffe got 800K less than Biden.

All indications are that 2022 is going to be a high turnout midterm and a Republican-leaning one at that. This is quite the blow to people that suggested turnout was going to go back down from 2018/2020 and that Democrats necessarily benefit from high turnout. You'd think after the 2020 election turnout was higher than anyone expected, and Trump did better than anyone expected, that this hypothesis would be busted. Now it's even more busted.

Really will be interesting what voting restrictions will do and whether then they will be repealed.

Given that we've seen nothing but turnout increases in recent elections, especially in states like Georgia and Texas, I can't imagine people view these as voting "restrictions" because they're definitely not successful in restricting the votes, and most people agree with the policies (voter ID, banning ballot harvesting, etc.).

We have evidence?

[David Hume]

Virginia just had 3.3 million people turnout and a Republican won in a D+6 state. Youngkin only got 300K less votes than Trump. McAuliffe got 800K less than Biden.

All indications are that 2022 is going to be a high turnout midterm and a Republican-leaning one at that. This is quite the blow to people that suggested turnout was going to go back down from 2018/2020 and that Democrats necessarily benefit from high turnout. You'd think after the 2020 election turnout was higher than anyone expected, and Trump did better than anyone expected, that this hypothesis would be busted. Now it's even more busted.

Really will be interesting what voting restrictions will do and whether then they will be repealed.

Don't think so. Youngkin won by less than 2%. If the turnout rate is like NJ level, he might have win more.

[Indy Texas]

Democrats need to understand that raising turnout does not help them.

People cling to this theory that America's nonvoters are poor, dispossessed, disenfranchised people and if we just promise them more and more stuff (Medicare for All, free college, stimulus checks) they will be "mobilized" to turn out and vote for Democrats. And that if Democrats lose an election, it's because turnout wasn't high enough.

A lot of Democrats' outreach to nonvoters in 2020 had the perverse effect of holding people's hands and helping them get to the polls where they voted...for Trump.

Conversely, Republicans need to stop with their conviction that Democrats only win elections because of "voter fraud" and the best way to ensure GOP success is to make it harder for people to vote. They assume any unlikely voters who would be dissuaded by some red tape will be Democrats.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He said he wasn't gonna raise taxes which in age of inflation resonate with voters in VA not every blue state agree with that, and Terry was a retread if Bobby Scott or someone else ran they weren't gonna be seen as the incumbent

[Person Man]

Democrats need to understand that raising turnout does not help them.

People cling to this theory that America's nonvoters are poor, dispossessed, disenfranchised people and if we just promise them more and more stuff (Medicare for All, free college, stimulus checks) they will be "mobilized" to turn out and vote for Democrats. And that if Democrats lose an election, it's because turnout wasn't high enough.

A lot of Democrats' outreach to nonvoters in 2020 had the perverse effect of holding people's hands and helping them get to the polls where they voted...for Trump.

Conversely, Republicans need to stop with their conviction that Democrats only win elections because of "voter fraud" and the best way to ensure GOP success is to make it harder for people to vote. They assume any unlikely voters who would be dissuaded by some red tape will be Democrats.

We may not know for some time what the net effect of voter restrictions are.

[Blair]

I still stand by the view that T-Mac played a huge part in it.

[Blair]

People cling to this theory that America's nonvoters are poor, dispossessed, disenfranchised people

This is largely every (poor) political strategists view of non-voters; they're always just waiting for a reason to support us.

Ironically every time I've seen huge spikes in people who irregularly vote it's been done either accidently or by the opposite side being stupid.   

[Adam Griffin]

I agree with most of this, but:

People cling to this theory that America's nonvoters are poor, dispossessed, disenfranchised people

This part is at least significantly true enough to warrant discussion?

Breaking it down:

Group	% of People	% of Voters
<$30k	22%	15%
$30-49k	16%	20%
$50-99k	29%	39%
$100k+	33%	27%

This is a meaningful discrepancy. We can debate exactly how accurate these figures are in exit polling (the $100k+ figure doesn't match past exit polls, as an example; I'm willing to bet the 2 higher income categories were actually over/under-rep'd in this case), but since these broader patterns have existed in exit polling long before any partisan or education response bias became an issue, I'm skeptical they're off by a significant amount.

Taking exits at face value, we're looking at a reality where even in 2020 with unprecedented turnout, roughly 40% of eligible non-voters would come from households making less than $30k per year (compared to 15% of voters & 22% of population). Close to 55% of non-voters would have made less than $50k per year (compared to 35% of voters & 38% of population). It's not exactly an insignificant consideration.

*Assumes 2020 $100k+ turnout is 80% of VEP; $50-99k is 70%; $30-49k is 65%, which by default projects a 44% turnout for <$30k)

[Mr. Reactionary]

It wasn't Youngkin. It was the radical changes the Dems here pushed through over significant objections in such a short time. Anyone who is not like a partisan Dem or in NOVA has noticed. Hell, I've voted for State Senate in 4 separate elections in Virginia; I've never voted Republican for State Senate. I've already made my peace with my inevitable vote for my schithead Republic State Senator in 2023 since I doubt I'm ever voting Dem again despite splitting my ticket in 9 of the last 12 elections. Frankly I'd have probably voted for Gillespie this time to break the D trifecta. The federal and State Dems have really disqualified themselves these past 2 years.

[beesley]

There are previously low-propensity voters who have become increasingly activated, and the answer is a combination of "polarization" and "culture clash":

On a side note, do you have any more of these? I'd be interested to see ones for North Carolina and New Jersey, but only if you have already got the figures and map.