2004 User Predictions - Discussion
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 01:35:54 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2004 U.S. Presidential Election
  2004 User Predictions - Discussion
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 78 79 80 81 82 [83] 84 85 86 87 88 ... 99
Author Topic: 2004 User Predictions - Discussion  (Read 866246 times)
kelpie
Rookie
**
Posts: 113


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2050 on: May 09, 2004, 04:22:44 PM »

Updated prediction - getting tighter.  Bush 314, Kerry 224.  Thoughts?

Also showboating new picture posting capability...

Logged
Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,770


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2051 on: May 09, 2004, 04:35:34 PM »

Not at all unreasonable Kelpie. Smiley In fact, pretty likely.
Logged
Lunar
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,404
Ireland, Republic of
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2052 on: May 09, 2004, 05:48:15 PM »

If Bush wins then that is a very likely scenario.
Logged
ilikeverin
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 16,410
Timor-Leste


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2053 on: May 09, 2004, 06:15:53 PM »

Updated prediction - getting tighter.  Bush 314, Kerry 224.  Thoughts?

Also showboating new picture posting capability...



I like your Minnesota Wink Smiley Smiley
Logged
TeePee4Prez
Flyers2004
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,480


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2054 on: May 09, 2004, 09:05:25 PM »

Bush' approval is at 47% and I hope the EV totals are accurate.  
Logged
??????????
StatesRights
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,126
Political Matrix
E: 7.61, S: 0.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2055 on: May 10, 2004, 09:21:39 AM »


How?  Gore didn't even win a Nebraska county in 2000, and lost NE-02 by 18.4%.

Kerry ain't winning crap in Nebraska give that thought up. Maine might split, maybe.
Logged
classical liberal
RightWingNut
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,758


Political Matrix
E: 9.35, S: -8.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2056 on: May 10, 2004, 12:19:36 PM »

It would be funny if my scenario actually happened.
Logged
© tweed
Miamiu1027
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,563
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2057 on: May 10, 2004, 03:07:12 PM »

It would be funny if my scenario actually happened.

It would be verry cool.
Logged
© tweed
Miamiu1027
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,563
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2058 on: May 10, 2004, 03:08:20 PM »

Kerry ain't winning crap in Nebraska give that thought up. Maine might split, maybe.

Maine almost split last time, it took them a couple hours to call Maine's second district.
Logged
millwx
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 402


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2059 on: May 11, 2004, 08:21:16 AM »

Just randomly chiming in here after seeing lots of folks' predictions.  Just my two cents, but I think a lot of people are "missing" some standard, well known polling issues...

1) Third party candidates poll roughly double what they'll actually get.  The other half migrate to the major candidate most closely matching their's... In this case, about 50% of the polled Nader support will go to Kerry.

2) Undecideds go heavily (about 70-80%) to the challenger.

This means that almost every state polling even or with Bush up by 1-2% is actually, likely, leaning Kerry.  Zogby said some of this (more simply) on his site yesterday, and he's absolutely right.  This is Kerry's race to lose.  Due to these polling "issues" Kerry is likely ahead in all of the Gore states plus NH, OH, FL and AR... maybe more!  Obviously, many states are close; Bush coulde easily win... and by a lot... with only a slight surge.  But right now, Kerry is ahead... significantly... if one interprets the poll numbers properly.
Logged
elcorazon
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,402


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2060 on: May 11, 2004, 09:06:46 AM »

Just randomly chiming in here after seeing lots of folks' predictions.  Just my two cents, but I think a lot of people are "missing" some standard, well known polling issues...

1) Third party candidates poll roughly double what they'll actually get.  The other half migrate to the major candidate most closely matching their's... In this case, about 50% of the polled Nader support will go to Kerry.

2) Undecideds go heavily (about 70-80%) to the challenger.

This means that almost every state polling even or with Bush up by 1-2% is actually, likely, leaning Kerry.  Zogby said some of this (more simply) on his site yesterday, and he's absolutely right.  This is Kerry's race to lose.  Due to these polling "issues" Kerry is likely ahead in all of the Gore states plus NH, OH, FL and AR... maybe more!  Obviously, many states are close; Bush coulde easily win... and by a lot... with only a slight surge.  But right now, Kerry is ahead... significantly... if one interprets the poll numbers properly.

I tend to agree with you, although I'll reserve that opinion until I hear Vorlon's view of it.

QUESTION FOR VORLON:  How can you be so into the numbers, etc. of the election when you literally have no dog in the fight?  I have no problem with your voting liberatarian, but I just would think the whole battle would be more boring to you, given your disdain for both sides.  I'll hang up and listen for my answer.
Logged
??????????
StatesRights
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,126
Political Matrix
E: 7.61, S: 0.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2061 on: May 11, 2004, 09:58:36 AM »

Just randomly chiming in here after seeing lots of folks' predictions.  Just my two cents, but I think a lot of people are "missing" some standard, well known polling issues...

1) Third party candidates poll roughly double what they'll actually get.  The other half migrate to the major candidate most closely matching their's... In this case, about 50% of the polled Nader support will go to Kerry.

2) Undecideds go heavily (about 70-80%) to the challenger.

This means that almost every state polling even or with Bush up by 1-2% is actually, likely, leaning Kerry.  Zogby said some of this (more simply) on his site yesterday, and he's absolutely right.  This is Kerry's race to lose.  Due to these polling "issues" Kerry is likely ahead in all of the Gore states plus NH, OH, FL and AR... maybe more!  Obviously, many states are close; Bush coulde easily win... and by a lot... with only a slight surge.  But right now, Kerry is ahead... significantly... if one interprets the poll numbers properly.

Having any idea who is going to win this thing in May is like sitting back and trying to predict who is going to the World Series. You can make a lot of good guesses but will probably be wrong in the end. We still have conventions and debates yet to go! Thats a lot of stuff still a long time off.
Logged
millwx
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 402


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2062 on: May 11, 2004, 10:31:05 AM »

Having any idea who is going to win this thing in May is like sitting back and trying to predict who is going to the World Series. You can make a lot of good guesses but will probably be wrong in the end. We still have conventions and debates yet to go! Thats a lot of stuff still a long time off.

While I completely agree with that notion, the fact is, many people ARE trying to make such a prediction.  So, I was just trying to point out that if anyone has any hope at all of doing that, they need to at least understand how to interpret the polls. (That comes off as rather "holier than thou"; sorry, it is not intended to... I'm merely trying to point out, from a lot of poll-parsing I've done, as well as taking advise from the polling experts themselves, that there is more to polling data than the mere straight-up numbers.)
Logged
??????????
StatesRights
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,126
Political Matrix
E: 7.61, S: 0.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2063 on: May 11, 2004, 10:34:57 AM »

I like to look at state polls more then one big national poll. Yes it looks bad for Bush right now but I know that will change as the summer wears on. I really don't put faith in polls as I don't believe the sample enough people. In this modern age we could easily sample 500,000 registered voters. Just my opinion, it may not be feasible I don't know.

BTW, what part of MD are you from? I grew up in N.E. Baltimore City. Franklin Square Hospital is where I was born.
Logged
millwx
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 402


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2064 on: May 11, 2004, 12:03:01 PM »

I like to look at state polls more then one big national poll. Yes it looks bad for Bush right now but I know that will change as the summer wears on. I really don't put faith in polls as I don't believe the sample enough people. In this modern age we could easily sample 500,000 registered voters. Just my opinion, it may not be feasible I don't know.

BTW, what part of MD are you from? I grew up in N.E. Baltimore City. Franklin Square Hospital is where I was born.
I agree (about state polls).  I think national polls are important in that if someone has a wide lead, then, don't bother parsing the state data... that candidate will win.  But when it's close (like this), the state polls are the key.

As for Bush improving over the summer, I'm not so sure.  News continues to be bad for him (except for some jobs data), and I see no reason why it won't continue.  Meanwhile, Kerry hasn't even really begun his campaign (o.k., well, he JUST has - as he's launched an ad buy).  By the way, I'm not spouting this as just some personal preference.  Frankly, I don't like either candidate.

Anyway, I agree that it's early and much can change.  There are so many tight battleground states that any significant improvement by either candidate could easily result in a landslide.  To my original point, though, to me it doesn't matter whether the election is 6 months or 6 days away... if one uses polling data to make their prediction, they should use it with the best knowledge of the polling biases/errors/tendencies possible.

Incidentally, I'm originally from Massachusetts (I'm a "Northeast Republican"... which makes me more libertarian or independent in the rest of the country :-) ), but now living in SoMD (PG Co.).  I did recently live in Baltimore City, though (north of Canton/Fells Point).
Logged
??????????
StatesRights
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,126
Political Matrix
E: 7.61, S: 0.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2065 on: May 11, 2004, 12:11:14 PM »

Updated for your viewing pleasure/displeasure :



R - 345
D - 192*



*D.C. Electors Abstains
Logged
The Dowager Mod
texasgurl
Moderators
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,973
United States


Political Matrix
E: -9.48, S: -8.57

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2066 on: May 11, 2004, 12:17:09 PM »

Tongue
Logged
John
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,088


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2067 on: May 11, 2004, 12:25:28 PM »

BUSH WILL WIN A CLOSE ONE
327 EC VOTES FOR BUSH CARRYING PA,WI,
211 EC VOTES FOR KERRY
Logged
© tweed
Miamiu1027
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,563
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2068 on: May 11, 2004, 02:52:30 PM »


Your percentages are messed up
Logged
The Dowager Mod
texasgurl
Moderators
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,973
United States


Political Matrix
E: -9.48, S: -8.57

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2069 on: May 11, 2004, 02:53:27 PM »

so?
got a point?
Logged
© tweed
Miamiu1027
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,563
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2070 on: May 11, 2004, 02:55:58 PM »


How the hell will Bush get 80% in Texas?  And 60% in the upper south?  And Kerry 60% in WI?
Logged
The Dowager Mod
texasgurl
Moderators
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,973
United States


Political Matrix
E: -9.48, S: -8.57

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2071 on: May 11, 2004, 02:57:19 PM »

since it makes no difference to me what margins they get i didn't even try to guess them.
winning a state by 80% is no different than winning by 1%.
Logged
© tweed
Miamiu1027
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,563
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2072 on: May 11, 2004, 03:06:02 PM »

since it makes no difference to me what margins they get i didn't even try to guess them.
winning a state by 80% is no different than winning by 1%.

Bush got 59% in TX in 2000, he would need 21% more to reach 80%.

I don't think he will even reach 60% there.  He runs pretty poorly in the urban areas, which are growing.
Logged
The Dowager Mod
texasgurl
Moderators
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,973
United States


Political Matrix
E: -9.48, S: -8.57

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2073 on: May 11, 2004, 03:08:15 PM »

i was pretty much just fooling around with the percentages.
i'm just interested in who wins a state,not by how much.
Logged
© tweed
Miamiu1027
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,563
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2074 on: May 11, 2004, 03:09:44 PM »

i was pretty much just fooling around with the percentages.
i'm just interested in who wins a state,not by how much.


Heh.  I win.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 78 79 80 81 82 [83] 84 85 86 87 88 ... 99  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.056 seconds with 10 queries.