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Author Topic: 2004 User Predictions - Discussion  (Read 866150 times)
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StatesRights
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« Reply #2025 on: May 05, 2004, 12:48:48 AM »

I know you all keep dismissing my belief. But I continue to hear rumors of the higher up DNC members being very unsatisfied with Kerry as a candidate. I have heard rumors that Hillary and the DNC Chairman (sorry I can't remember his name at 2am) are not impressed with his campaigning ability. I have heard that it may be a open convention as in 1980 when they tried to dump Carter. I don't know why I catch so much heat for this.
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StatesRights
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« Reply #2026 on: May 05, 2004, 09:26:53 AM »

Revised again :



Bush - 338
Kerry - 199
Abstain - 1 D.C. Elector
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #2027 on: May 05, 2004, 10:15:44 AM »

Why the DC elector?
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StatesRights
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« Reply #2028 on: May 05, 2004, 10:25:40 AM »

He/She did last time.
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Lunar
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« Reply #2029 on: May 05, 2004, 04:48:08 PM »

Kerry losing Michigan but not Iowa?
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #2030 on: May 05, 2004, 05:08:23 PM »


Tey won't necessarily be the same people.
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StatesRights
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« Reply #2031 on: May 06, 2004, 01:27:38 AM »

Kerry losing Michigan but not Iowa?

Every election has its weird oddities. I still see a landslide in the making if things go right for Bush. But I wouldn't bet the farm on it yet.
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StatesRights
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« Reply #2032 on: May 06, 2004, 01:48:30 AM »

Here is a classic :

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/pred04.php?action=indpred&id=3359

Montana and Indiana going Democrat? lol
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #2033 on: May 06, 2004, 07:13:20 AM »


That guy gives comments too...there is a method to his madness.
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StatesRights
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« Reply #2034 on: May 06, 2004, 10:17:43 AM »

Montana, North Dakota, Indiana going Kerry? Sure. If you really believe that. I put as much faith in that as I put in the "fact" that most married women are ditching Bush. Patriotism will prevail in this election. No matter how much the Democrats try and Vietnamize this war and split the nation.
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cskendrick
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« Reply #2035 on: May 06, 2004, 06:58:19 PM »

History of George W. Bush, in average poll ratings

Date        Average    Stdev   Count

01/01/01    46.00    #DIV/0!   1
02/01/01    55.92     3.15    12
03/01/01    56.10     4.07    10
04/01/01    58.11     4.14    9
05/01/01    55.13     2.36    8
06/01/01    53.13     3.09    8
07/01/01    54.80     3.77    10
08/01/01    53.20     2.90    10
09/01/01    79.60     11.82    15
10/01/01    86.62     4.07    13
11/01/01    86.58     1.68    12
12/01/01    83.80     2.35    10
01/01/02    80.29     3.04    17
02/01/02    79.57     2.07    7
03/01/02    77.75     2.80    12
04/01/02    75.06     2.57    16
05/01/02    74.00     2.80    12
06/01/02    72.31     2.57    16
07/01/02    68.05     3.52    19
08/01/02    64.78     2.82    9
09/01/02    66.37     2.19    19
10/01/02    63.29     2.44    17
11/01/02    65.27     2.10    11
12/01/02    62.27     2.94    11
01/01/03    59.70     3.21    20
02/01/03    58.05     3.63    19
03/01/03    63.08     5.99    26
04/01/03    69.68     3.76    22
05/01/03    64.23     2.35    13
06/01/03    61.83     3.83    12
07/01/03    57.80     2.65    15
08/01/03    56.09     2.74    11
09/01/03    52.33     3.25    18
10/01/03    53.13     2.53    15
11/01/03    52.23     3.11    13
12/01/03    55.00     3.87    23
01/01/04    54.86     4.64    22
02/01/04    50.44     2.68    16
03/01/04    49.06     1.77    16
04/01/04    48.80     2.60    15
05/01/04    47.50     2.12    2

Note: All days converted to "01" for purposes of aggregation.
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cskendrick
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« Reply #2036 on: May 06, 2004, 07:06:56 PM »


EV Scenarios, by Bush approval rating

Bush
Approval   Nader EV   Kerry EV   Bush EV
71%   0   0   538
70%   0   3   535
65%   0   3   535
60%   0   19   519
55%   0   168   370
54%   0   168   370
53%   0   189   349
52%   0   221   317
51%   0   231   307
50%   0   248   290
49%   0   264   274
48%   0   300   238
47%   0   319   219
46%   0   359   179
45%   0   359   179
40%   0   454   84
35%   0   486   52
30%   0   526   12
25%   0   538   0
20%   0   538   0
15%   3   535   0
10%   50   488   0
5%   231   307   0
0%   264   274   0

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The Vorlon
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« Reply #2037 on: May 06, 2004, 07:10:04 PM »


EV Scenarios, by Bush approval rating

Bush
Approval   Nader EV   Kerry EV   Bush EV
71%   0   0   538
70%   0   3   535
65%   0   3   535
60%   0   19   519
55%   0   168   370
54%   0   168   370
53%   0   189   349
52%   0   221   317
51%   0   231   307
50%   0   248   290
49%   0   264   274
48%   0   300   238
47%   0   319   219
46%   0   359   179
45%   0   359   179
40%   0   454   84
35%   0   486   52
30%   0   526   12
25%   0   538   0
20%   0   538   0
15%   3   535   0
10%   50   488   0
5%   231   307   0
0%   264   274   0



Pretty darn close !
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ilikeverin
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« Reply #2038 on: May 06, 2004, 08:44:18 PM »

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/pred04.php?action=indpred&id=2857

HA!  An older version of his.  MD, PA, WV Bush, MT, ND, Kerry.  Nevada: 'Nevada is a ifx against Bush, the whole thing with Yucca Mountain has made that a guaranteed Dem state for at least a few more elections, maybe more if it gets really bad.'

Cheesy
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ilikeverin
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« Reply #2039 on: May 06, 2004, 08:54:18 PM »

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/pred04.php?action=indpred&id=970

ND & SD Strong Dem...

But OH & PA Tossups for Bush

Tongue
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Lunar
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« Reply #2040 on: May 06, 2004, 08:58:04 PM »
« Edited: May 06, 2004, 08:58:16 PM by Lunar »

I'd almost think that map was based on local power (who are the senators and governer) but WV isn't Dem there.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #2041 on: May 07, 2004, 07:13:14 AM »


Maine also.
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JohnFKennedy
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« Reply #2042 on: May 07, 2004, 11:00:51 AM »
« Edited: May 07, 2004, 11:01:29 AM by John F. Kennedy »

Here's a prediction from a Scottish Conservative.

I'm pretty sure both the economy and Iraq will have improved come November, and I'm pretty uninspired by Kerry as a candidate.

Thoughts?

Also, how do I post the image rather than just the link?

OMG, A Scottish Conservative?!?!?!?!?!?!

Impossible! lol

Welcome to the forums, if I haven't already welcomed you somewhere else.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #2043 on: May 07, 2004, 01:42:26 PM »


EV Scenarios, by Bush approval rating

Bush
Approval   Nader EV   Kerry EV   Bush EV
71%   0   0   538
70%   0   3   535
65%   0   3   535
60%   0   19   519
55%   0   168   370
54%   0   168   370
53%   0   189   349
52%   0   221   317
51%   0   231   307
50%   0   248   290
49%   0   264   274
48%   0   300   238
47%   0   319   219
46%   0   359   179
45%   0   359   179
40%   0   454   84
35%   0   486   52
30%   0   526   12
25%   0   538   0
20%   0   538   0
15%   3   535   0
10%   50   488   0
5%   231   307   0
0%   264   274   0

Good work! Smiley
Nice to see you back, BTW
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cskendrick
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« Reply #2044 on: May 07, 2004, 08:36:00 PM »

Thanks!

To be honest, I lost my link to this site!

How embarrassing. Sad
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #2045 on: May 08, 2004, 03:02:44 AM »

Thanks!

To be honest, I lost my link to this site!

How embarrassing. Sad

I've done that sort of thing before...
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classical liberal
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« Reply #2046 on: May 08, 2004, 03:16:27 PM »

I think that DC is the only place that will break 60%. So, I am using the colors to represent the range within the 60% max range. The colors from lightest to darkest represent: <50%, 50%-53.3%, 53.4%-56.6%, and 56.7%-59.9%.

Here's my election night prediction:

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Gustaf
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« Reply #2047 on: May 08, 2004, 04:06:15 PM »

I think that DC is the only place that will break 60%. So, I am using the colors to represent the range within the 60% max range. The colors from lightest to darkest represent: <50%, 50%-53.3%, 53.4%-56.6%, and 56.7%-59.9%.

Here's my election night prediction:



And then that one CD in NE goes to Kerry, right? Smiley
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classical liberal
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« Reply #2048 on: May 08, 2004, 10:19:26 PM »

Yep, the NE-02
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #2049 on: May 09, 2004, 08:38:22 AM »


How?  Gore didn't even win a Nebraska county in 2000, and lost NE-02 by 18.4%.
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