2004 User Predictions - Discussion
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Author Topic: 2004 User Predictions - Discussion  (Read 866309 times)
ShapeShifter
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« Reply #1950 on: April 19, 2004, 08:01:47 AM »

current prediction, based on polls andpreminition Cheesy



Kerry 273-265 Bush.

Before you yell at me, look at Rassmussen-Michigan, Florida, PA, and OH. Whislt not based purely on Rassmussen (LOL), it was the main polling site I used. Alot is gut feeling-the least scientific, but often most accurate-measurement.

Why Michigan for bush?
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ShapeShifter
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« Reply #1951 on: April 19, 2004, 10:06:11 AM »

Current prediction:

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ShapeShifter
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« Reply #1952 on: April 19, 2004, 10:09:01 AM »

current prediction, based on polls andpreminition Cheesy



Kerry 273-265 Bush.

Before you yell at me, look at Rassmussen-Michigan, Florida, PA, and OH. Whislt not based purely on Rassmussen (LOL), it was the main polling site I used. Alot is gut feeling-the least scientific, but often most accurate-measurement.

Why Michigan for bush?

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Michigan%20March%2018.htm

In Michigan, Massachusetts Senator John F. Kerry leads President George W. Bush 48% to 44% as the election season begins.
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Rococo4
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« Reply #1953 on: April 19, 2004, 11:22:19 AM »

I cant really buy this NH going for Kerry argument that many people are using because they will vote for their next door neighboor.

I disagree.  I think it helps Kerry here to be next door rather than Texas.  But I think the real reason Kerry will win here if he does will be because of the buzz of the primaries that Bush didn't have this year but Kerry did.

If he wins NH the primary will have helped, but we would have been there no matter where he was from.
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JohnFKennedy
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« Reply #1954 on: April 19, 2004, 11:25:42 AM »

why have both of you given Kerry Ohio and Bush Pennsylvania? Surely if Bush wins PA he will win OH.
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dunn
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« Reply #1955 on: April 19, 2004, 11:25:51 AM »

LOVE your new signiture img. Shapy
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ShapeShifter
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« Reply #1956 on: April 19, 2004, 11:27:32 AM »

why have both of you given Kerry Ohio and Bush Pennsylvania? Surely if Bush wins PA he will win OH.

Just a gut feeling.

Pennsylvania because of NRA

Ohio because of the job situation and poll. Smiley
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ShapeShifter
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« Reply #1957 on: April 19, 2004, 11:27:47 AM »

LOVE your new signiture img. Shapy

Thanks Smiley
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dunn
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« Reply #1958 on: April 19, 2004, 12:46:27 PM »

Smiley
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #1959 on: April 19, 2004, 02:47:06 PM »

why have both of you given Kerry Ohio and Bush Pennsylvania? Surely if Bush wins PA he will win OH.

Not necessarily...depends how the philly latte-drinking liberals vote.  If they vote for Nader Kerry might not win PA.
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PeteLI66
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« Reply #1960 on: April 22, 2004, 09:05:17 AM »

I cant really buy this NH going for Kerry argument that many people are using because they will vote for their next door neighboor. If NH goes to Kerry, I doubt that will be the reason.  For instance, if it was Bayh v. Bush, no one in Ohio would vote for Bayh because he was from next door Indiana.  Gore didnt win any next door states in 2000.  I just dont see it.

Kerry may well win NH.  But it wont be because he is from MA.

I disagree, I think that more than a few people in NH have ties to MA. For example, they work in MA, watch the news out of Boston, etc. These new england states are small, and there is a lot of cross-commuting, travelling and interstate business.
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Rococo4
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« Reply #1961 on: April 23, 2004, 12:25:40 AM »

That is a valid point.  There is alot of travel between the states.  Maybe the people of NH will know Kerry better then, and that is worse for him.  I still think Bush wins NH.
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opebo
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« Reply #1962 on: April 23, 2004, 02:15:20 AM »

That is a valid point.  There is alot of travel between the states.  Maybe the people of NH will know Kerry better then, and that is worse for him.  I still think Bush wins NH.

Good point.  A lot of people in NH are escapees from Taxachusetts.  They moved to get away from the likes of Kerry and Kennedy.
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PeteLI66
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« Reply #1963 on: April 23, 2004, 08:51:54 AM »

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A lot of people in NH are escapees from Taxachusetts.  They moved to get away from the likes of Kerry and Kennedy.
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Federal elected officials do not set state tax rates.
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Rococo4
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« Reply #1964 on: April 23, 2004, 10:44:48 AM »

No, they dont , but they still associate their high taxes with all of their elected officials, fair or not.
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PeteLI66
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« Reply #1965 on: April 23, 2004, 12:25:30 PM »

No, they dont , but they still associate their high taxes with all of their elected officials, fair or not.

This is so untrue.
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opebo
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« Reply #1966 on: April 23, 2004, 10:22:47 PM »

No, they dont , but they still associate their high taxes with all of their elected officials, fair or not.

This is so untrue.

People associate high taxes with Democrats and low taxes with Republicans, its that simple.  Its also highly accurate.
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Lunar
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« Reply #1967 on: April 23, 2004, 10:32:53 PM »

Yes, Republicans are more economically conservative.  This means that they usually prefer to have the government out of our life economically (but in socially).  Democrats are the reverse, preferring to pay for government programs like universal healthcare and whatnot.

However, I question whether or not this is what Bush is doing.  It seems he shifts more of the burden to indirect indicators, like college tuition among other things.
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TeePee4Prez
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« Reply #1968 on: April 24, 2004, 01:03:57 PM »

why have both of you given Kerry Ohio and Bush Pennsylvania? Surely if Bush wins PA he will win OH.

Not necessarily...depends how the philly latte-drinking liberals vote.  If they vote for Nader Kerry might not win PA.

Boss Tweed,
   Hi, Mr. Devils fan it's earth here.  Most Philly Democrats are not latte drinking liberals.  In fact a lot are pro-life and pro-Iraq war.  Ther reason Philly votes Dem is because of Jesse Jackson and the big unions.  The suburbs have a mix of union workers and bleeding hearts though.  I don't think those voters will be going Nader.  Maybe someone livingin Society HIll though.  
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solrac
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« Reply #1969 on: April 24, 2004, 03:48:58 PM »

I cant really buy this NH going for Kerry argument that many people are using because they will vote for their next door neighboor.

I disagree.  I think it helps Kerry here to be next door rather than Texas.  But I think the real reason Kerry will win here if he does will be because of the buzz of the primaries that Bush didn't have this year but Kerry did.

The fact of the matter is that every state where Nader was strong, and that state was close between Bush/Gore, will be leaning for a Kerry win this time around.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #1970 on: April 24, 2004, 04:04:26 PM »

why have both of you given Kerry Ohio and Bush Pennsylvania? Surely if Bush wins PA he will win OH.

Not necessarily...depends how the philly latte-drinking liberals vote.  If they vote for Nader Kerry might not win PA.

Boss Tweed,
   Hi, Mr. Devils fan it's earth here.  Most Philly Democrats are not latte drinking liberals.  In fact a lot are pro-life and pro-Iraq war.  Ther reason Philly votes Dem is because of Jesse Jackson and the big unions.  The suburbs have a mix of union workers and bleeding hearts though.  I don't think those voters will be going Nader.  Maybe someone livingin Society HIll though.  

He didn't say that most were...if one in 10 Gore+Nader votes vote for Nader again, that could be enough.
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solrac
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« Reply #1971 on: April 24, 2004, 04:32:36 PM »

why have both of you given Kerry Ohio and Bush Pennsylvania? Surely if Bush wins PA he will win OH.

Not necessarily...depends how the philly latte-drinking liberals vote.  If they vote for Nader Kerry might not win PA.

Boss Tweed,
   Hi, Mr. Devils fan it's earth here.  Most Philly Democrats are not latte drinking liberals.  In fact a lot are pro-life and pro-Iraq war.  Ther reason Philly votes Dem is because of Jesse Jackson and the big unions.  The suburbs have a mix of union workers and bleeding hearts though.  I don't think those voters will be going Nader.  Maybe someone livingin Society HIll though.  

He didn't say that most were...if one in 10 Gore+Nader votes vote for Nader again, that could be enough.

The electorate is aware of the very close 2000 election. There will be very-very-very little votes for Nader this time around.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #1972 on: April 24, 2004, 04:48:45 PM »

why have both of you given Kerry Ohio and Bush Pennsylvania? Surely if Bush wins PA he will win OH.

Not necessarily...depends how the philly latte-drinking liberals vote.  If they vote for Nader Kerry might not win PA.

Boss Tweed,
   Hi, Mr. Devils fan it's earth here.  Most Philly Democrats are not latte drinking liberals.  In fact a lot are pro-life and pro-Iraq war.  Ther reason Philly votes Dem is because of Jesse Jackson and the big unions.  The suburbs have a mix of union workers and bleeding hearts though.  I don't think those voters will be going Nader.  Maybe someone livingin Society HIll though.  

He didn't say that most were...if one in 10 Gore+Nader votes vote for Nader again, that could be enough.

The electorate is aware of the very close 2000 election. There will be very-very-very little votes for Nader this time around.


Oh, I agree. Note the 'if' in MiamiU's statement. Wink

Still, if the race is close, like in Florida-2000-close, every single vote could matter. If the margin of victory is around 0.01% like it was then, Nader could still give the race to Bush. In fact, latte-drinking liberals probably make up about 0.01% of the PA electorate... Sad

Wink
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #1973 on: April 24, 2004, 06:26:33 PM »

Most philly democrats are not latte drinking liberals.

Not most, but many.  I think PA will be within 2-3% (no matter who wins) so if they vote for Nader, that could be more than enough to swing it to Bush.

Western PA in Pop-u-list coal mining nation is a waaaaay different world.
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howardpearlman
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« Reply #1974 on: April 24, 2004, 06:56:47 PM »

I Predict that Kerry Wins by 500,000 votes.

Same as Al Gore did.
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