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Author Topic: 2004 User Predictions - Discussion  (Read 865937 times)
Fritz
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« Reply #1900 on: April 13, 2004, 06:40:49 PM »

I think most of the Democrats are upset because they are starting to realize it's like '84 all over again and they don't want to accept the fact of it yet.


Dream on....this is not going to be anything like 1984.  It's going to be more like 2000, possibly even with a state needing to be recounted. (Hopefully not Florida this time.)  You are living in a complete Fantasyland if you really think Bush is gonna stomp on Kerry that drastically.  Oh wait, you're from Florida....maybe your address actually is in Fantasyland.    Smiley
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Lunar
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« Reply #1901 on: April 13, 2004, 07:37:46 PM »
« Edited: April 13, 2004, 07:45:41 PM by Lunar »

DcPoliticalReport.com has California, Maryland, NY, Wash, Oregon, all within the MOE for Kerry. That's scary you have to admit.

They have a month-old poll with a margin of error of 5% (!) that only has Kerry up 9 points.  Not something to sweat over considering that it's just as likely that he's actually up 14 as losing.

Washing they have a poll from late last month with a MoE of 4.5% showing Kerry only 6 points up with 4% for "other" which will likely filter back to him anyway.

Maryland Kerry's only 5 up, but I'm a bit skeptical with the firm of "Gonzales Research"

Oregon has Kerry up 5 with 5 for other.  Pollster is "Tim Hibbits."

The New York one isn't even a poll versus Kerry, only a "democratic nominee" taken in January.
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Lunar
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« Reply #1902 on: April 14, 2004, 01:02:27 AM »
« Edited: April 14, 2004, 01:05:14 AM by Lunar »

Ok, updated my map to be more normal.  Predicts a strong Kerry in the Midwest but not strong enough in the Southwest.  I think the national vote will be about 50% in favor of the winner (Kerry), +/- 2%.

From my old prediction:

Kerry:
+Ohio
+Iowa

Bush:
+New Mexico
+Lousiana
+Colorado
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muon2
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« Reply #1903 on: April 14, 2004, 11:32:11 AM »

I think most of the Democrats are upset because they are starting to realize it's like '84 all over again and they don't want to accept the fact of it yet.

Nah...Bush is no reagan, the economy is no Reagan...
I don't expect a 1984, and I agree that Bush is no Reagan, but the economy is not so different than 1984. The early eighties featured a significant recession, especially in the Midwest. Think Farm-Aid concert and "Rain on the Scarecrow" by John Mellencamp. Many other parts of the mdwestern economy were also suffering. The economy was picking up by 1984, but by no means were all doing well.
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elcorazon
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« Reply #1904 on: April 14, 2004, 11:44:48 AM »

I think Bush is in a similar position (though not as bad) as Carter in 1980.  I suspect the swing voters will wind up overwhelmingly in Kerry's camp in the end, causing Kerry to win Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, NH, WV, OR, MN, Iowa, NM and to make it a race in Florida, AZ, CO, LA, VA, AR, MO, maybe a few others...

PV:

Kerry 51%
Bush 45%
Nader 2-3%
Other the rest
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #1905 on: April 14, 2004, 02:46:36 PM »
« Edited: April 14, 2004, 02:46:57 PM by Boss Tweed »

UPDATED Kerry vs. Bush:


Bush/Cheney 51.5%, 306 EV's
Kerry/Edwards 48.0%, 232 EV's

---

Kerry could lose the PV by 5% and still win the election; expect Bush to rack up votes in the south.
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ilikeverin
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« Reply #1906 on: April 14, 2004, 04:28:46 PM »

UPDATED Kerry vs. Bush:


Bush/Cheney 51.5%, 306 EV's
Kerry/Edwards 48.0%, 232 EV's

---

Kerry could lose the PV by 5% and still win the election; expect Bush to rack up votes in the south.

Oh good.  Your prediction is slightly more optimistic than some Republicans' now! *whew*
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Fritz
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« Reply #1907 on: April 14, 2004, 04:48:17 PM »

UPDATED Kerry vs. Bush:


Bush/Cheney 51.5%, 306 EV's
Kerry/Edwards 48.0%, 232 EV's

---

Kerry could lose the PV by 5% and still win the election; expect Bush to rack up votes in the south.

Bush won't win Iowa.  Mark my words.
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« Reply #1908 on: April 14, 2004, 07:29:47 PM »

Kerry will win Illinois and that's it in the Mid-west. Democrats are fooling themselves if they think this will be a repeat of 2000. Kerry is getting hammered right now w/very little response. And Kerry winning Florida? I doubt it, he'd actually have to campaign and run ads here. I've seen 4 Kerry ads since the primaries.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #1909 on: April 14, 2004, 07:49:42 PM »

Kerry is getting hammered right now w/very little response.

...So why isn't he down double digits in the polls?
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ilikeverin
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« Reply #1910 on: April 14, 2004, 07:52:33 PM »

Old 'uns:

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/pred04.php?action=indpred&id=130

NC is strong Dem... CA is a lean Dem... NH is a toss going to Bush. ?!?
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #1911 on: April 14, 2004, 08:15:27 PM »


that's CM!
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ilikeverin
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« Reply #1912 on: April 14, 2004, 08:24:34 PM »

Silly CM Smiley
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #1913 on: April 14, 2004, 08:28:08 PM »


That's back when he thought the ticket would be Clark/Edwards...so it *almost* explaina the prediction.
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kelpie
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« Reply #1914 on: April 15, 2004, 05:30:52 AM »

Here's a prediction from a Scottish Conservative.

I'm pretty sure both the economy and Iraq will have improved come November, and I'm pretty uninspired by Kerry as a candidate.

Thoughts?

Also, how do I post the image rather than just the link?
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StatesRights
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« Reply #1915 on: April 15, 2004, 06:11:13 AM »

Here's a prediction from a Scottish Conservative.

I'm pretty sure both the economy and Iraq will have improved come November, and I'm pretty uninspired by Kerry as a candidate.

Thoughts?

Also, how do I post the image rather than just the link?


Very reasonable map, and close to what I think is going to happen as well.
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Ben.
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« Reply #1916 on: April 15, 2004, 06:18:27 AM »

UPDATED Kerry vs. Bush:


Bush/Cheney 51.5%, 306 EV's
Kerry/Edwards 48.0%, 232 EV's

---

Kerry could lose the PV by 5% and still win the election; expect Bush to rack up votes in the south.

Pretty much agree, the popular vote I would place closer however, But I think Bush will rack up votes in the south this time, it all comes down to PA and OH really... but imho Kerry will take IA if he takes WI and i expect both states to go for him by slim margins.    
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #1917 on: April 15, 2004, 07:01:21 AM »

Here's a prediction from a Scottish Conservative.

I'm pretty sure both the economy and Iraq will have improved come November, and I'm pretty uninspired by Kerry as a candidate.

Thoughts?

Also, how do I post the image rather than just the link?

Pretty good...I think Kerry will win Oregon now that Nader looks to be off the ballot.  Other than that, I can't find fault with it.
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dg
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« Reply #1918 on: April 15, 2004, 08:51:11 AM »

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/pred04.php?action=indpred&id=2958

I think the hope that Iraq will have improved by November is misplaced. I don't see any hope, at least in the medium term. The administration has been claiming that improvement was on the way for quite a while and things just appear to be spiraling out of control. I would very gladly be proved wrong on this, but sadly think that not the case.

As for the election, I think it unfortunate for Bush that the election will be fought on foreign policy. Although a very strong 'defence' president and presiding over a strengthening economy, foreign policy is not his strongest card.

My predictions can be found at the above link. Kerry by a nose...
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1919 on: April 15, 2004, 09:25:46 AM »

I'd say your being a tad bit optimistic with NM... but other than that it looks sane Smiley
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Gustaf
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« Reply #1920 on: April 15, 2004, 11:51:50 AM »

Here's a prediction from a Scottish Conservative.

I'm pretty sure both the economy and Iraq will have improved come November, and I'm pretty uninspired by Kerry as a candidate.

Thoughts?

Also, how do I post the image rather than just the link?

Pretty good...I think Kerry will win Oregon now that Nader looks to be off the ballot.  Other than that, I can't find fault with it.

It's reasonable, the only thing I really disagree with is giving MN to Kerry and not Iowa. I think he'll win Iowa before he wins MN. And Oregon too.
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Siege40
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« Reply #1921 on: April 15, 2004, 03:15:57 PM »

I just wanted to point this out because I had a startling revelation in History Class today, is it me or does General/President Andrew Jackson and Senetor John Kerry look similar?

They keep pointing out Kerry's likeness to Kennedy, maybe Jackson would be a better idea, lol.

Siege
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1922 on: April 15, 2004, 03:44:16 PM »

I just wanted to point this out because I had a startling revelation in History Class today, is it me or does General/President Andrew Jackson and Senetor John Kerry look similar?

They keep pointing out Kerry's likeness to Kennedy, maybe Jackson would be a better idea, lol.

Siege

It might help in Tennessee Wink
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #1923 on: April 15, 2004, 08:34:17 PM »

UPDATED Kerry v. Bush:



Kerry/Freudenthal  288
Bush/Ashcroft 250
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Platypus
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« Reply #1924 on: April 16, 2004, 12:54:35 AM »

it hurts my eyes, mummy....

is Blue democrat or republican in this?
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