2004 User Predictions - Discussion
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 10:49:45 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2004 U.S. Presidential Election
  2004 User Predictions - Discussion
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 71 72 73 74 75 [76] 77 78 79 80 81 ... 99
Author Topic: 2004 User Predictions - Discussion  (Read 866051 times)
© tweed
Miamiu1027
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,563
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1875 on: April 12, 2004, 10:04:26 AM »

Yeah grayraven is pretty good.  I like it better than Edwards' but not as much as I like Leip's.  Smiley

Suck-up! Smiley Btw, in 5 minutes is 2004! And they say "where America goes the world follows"... Smiley Not this time! I will be waiting for you to catch up! Happy new year everybody! Smiley Smiley Smiley
It is 2004 in about 5 hours here.  and I genuinely do like Leip's better thanthe other ones.

5 hours and 13 minutes until 2004.
I guess we are both on the east coast.  
that is why I have a blue pennsylvania under my name.
That's true.  I guess I just can't put 2 and 2 together.

The two of you are building another pyramid!
And you are contributing, Gustaf!  thanks!
You're welcome!

No problem.

But I insist.
How big do these pyramids get?
It depends on the number of posts.
I don't think that the pyramids get much better than this...see that solid line.
There is always room for improvement.
Not really.  Look closely.
weee
Every time I do this another quote disappears,t hus the pyramids are not improved.

You're right, they don't get any better... Sad Sad

Those were the days...
Logged
Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,770


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1876 on: April 12, 2004, 10:48:16 AM »

Yeah grayraven is pretty good.  I like it better than Edwards' but not as much as I like Leip's.  Smiley

Suck-up! Smiley Btw, in 5 minutes is 2004! And they say "where America goes the world follows"... Smiley Not this time! I will be waiting for you to catch up! Happy new year everybody! Smiley Smiley Smiley
It is 2004 in about 5 hours here.  and I genuinely do like Leip's better thanthe other ones.

5 hours and 13 minutes until 2004.
I guess we are both on the east coast.  
that is why I have a blue pennsylvania under my name.
That's true.  I guess I just can't put 2 and 2 together.

The two of you are building another pyramid!
And you are contributing, Gustaf!  thanks!
You're welcome!

No problem.

But I insist.
How big do these pyramids get?
It depends on the number of posts.
I don't think that the pyramids get much better than this...see that solid line.
There is always room for improvement.
Not really.  Look closely.
weee
Every time I do this another quote disappears,t hus the pyramids are not improved.

You're right, they don't get any better... Sad Sad

Those were the days...

Nostalgic?
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1877 on: April 12, 2004, 10:54:41 AM »

Yeah grayraven is pretty good.  I like it better than Edwards' but not as much as I like Leip's.  Smiley

Suck-up! Smiley Btw, in 5 minutes is 2004! And they say "where America goes the world follows"... Smiley Not this time! I will be waiting for you to catch up! Happy new year everybody! Smiley Smiley Smiley
It is 2004 in about 5 hours here.  and I genuinely do like Leip's better thanthe other ones.

5 hours and 13 minutes until 2004.
I guess we are both on the east coast.  
that is why I have a blue pennsylvania under my name.
That's true.  I guess I just can't put 2 and 2 together.

The two of you are building another pyramid!
And you are contributing, Gustaf!  thanks!
You're welcome!

No problem.

But I insist.
How big do these pyramids get?
It depends on the number of posts.
I don't think that the pyramids get much better than this...see that solid line.
There is always room for improvement.
Not really.  Look closely.
weee
Every time I do this another quote disappears,t hus the pyramids are not improved.

You're right, they don't get any better... Sad Sad

Those were the days...

Nostalgic?

Hell yeah!
Logged
Fritz
JLD
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,668
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1878 on: April 12, 2004, 06:14:22 PM »

Here is my official prediction right now:

Kerry manages to pick off West Virginia and New Hampshire, and hold on to all Gore 2000 states.  Florida and Ohio are very close, but Bush holds on to them in the end.  This results in an electoral tie.

Bush cruises to an easy win in the ensuing election in the House of Representatives.  In the Senate, however, Democrats have picked up seats in Alaska, Colorado, Illinois, and Oklahoma, while the Republicans only gain a seat in Georgia.  This results in a 51-48-1 Democratic majority in the Senate.  The new Senate elects John Edwards as Vice-President (ok, assuming Edwards is the nominee).

Winners:
George W Bush, President (R)
John Edwards, Vice-President (D)

IT COULD HAPPEN!


What do you think?
Logged
dunn
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,053


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1879 on: April 12, 2004, 06:15:32 PM »

Here is my official prediction right now:

Kerry manages to pick off West Virginia and New Hampshire, and hold on to all Gore 2000 states.  Florida and Ohio are very close, but Bush holds on to them in the end.  This results in an electoral tie.

Bush cruises to an easy win in the ensuing election in the House of Representatives.  In the Senate, however, Democrats have picked up seats in Alaska, Colorado, Illinois, and Oklahoma, while the Republicans only gain a seat in Georgia.  This results in a 51-48-1 Democratic majority in the Senate.  The new Senate elects John Edwards as Vice-President (ok, assuming Edwards is the nominee).

Winners:
George W Bush, President (R)
John Edwards, Vice-President (D)

IT COULD HAPPEN!


What do you think?
we had a thread or 2 for that somewhere
Logged
© tweed
Miamiu1027
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,563
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1880 on: April 12, 2004, 07:08:25 PM »

Fritz, that won't happen.
Logged
Fritz
JLD
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,668
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1881 on: April 12, 2004, 08:05:37 PM »


What won't happen?  There won't be a tie, or the Democrats won't take the Senate?  Or both?  Both things appear very possible.
Logged
© tweed
Miamiu1027
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,563
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1882 on: April 12, 2004, 08:06:39 PM »


What won't happen?  There won't be a tie, or the Democrats won't take the Senate?  Or both?  Both things appear very possible.

Both.  a tie is probably more likely than Dems winning the senate.
Logged
Fritz
JLD
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,668
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1883 on: April 12, 2004, 08:12:50 PM »

I haven't really been watching all the Senate races, I'm just going off of RightWingNut's predictions in the Senate prediction thread.  And he's Republican!
Logged
© tweed
Miamiu1027
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,563
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1884 on: April 12, 2004, 08:14:06 PM »

I haven't really been watching all the Senate races, I'm just going off of RightWingNut's predictions in the Senate prediction thread.  And he's Republican!

Dems will have trouble holding the southern open seats.
Logged
opebo
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 47,010


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1885 on: April 12, 2004, 10:22:03 PM »

I haven't really been watching all the Senate races, I'm just going off of RightWingNut's predictions in the Senate prediction thread.  And he's Republican!

Supposedly.
Logged
??????????
StatesRights
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,126
Political Matrix
E: 7.61, S: 0.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1886 on: April 12, 2004, 10:23:02 PM »
« Edited: April 12, 2004, 10:23:29 PM by StatesRights »

Right Wing Nut is a Democrat. A Troll.
Logged
Fritz
JLD
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,668
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1887 on: April 13, 2004, 07:07:45 AM »

Right Wing Nut is a Democrat. A Troll.

And you say that because.....he claims to be Republican, but makes a prediction favoring the Democrats?  Is that your definition of the word "troll"?  Maybe I should accuse Boss Tweed of trolling.

No offense intended Boss, just making a point.
Logged
??????????
StatesRights
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,126
Political Matrix
E: 7.61, S: 0.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1888 on: April 13, 2004, 07:45:26 AM »

It was more of a joke then anything else. Every time I see him post he is preaching Democrat Dogma. I think he may have messed up and meant to put a red avatar up is all.
Logged
??????????
StatesRights
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,126
Political Matrix
E: 7.61, S: 0.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1889 on: April 13, 2004, 02:25:45 PM »
« Edited: April 13, 2004, 02:26:55 PM by StatesRights »

This is my new confidence map. Is Kerry even a candidate anymore? I haven't heard much about him in almost a week.



DcPoliticalReport.com has California, Maryland, NY, Wash, Oregon, all within the MOE for Kerry. That's scary you have to admit.
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1890 on: April 13, 2004, 02:44:16 PM »

DcPoliticalReport.com has California, Maryland, NY, Wash, Oregon, all within the MOE for Kerry. That's scary you have to admit.

But Bush's lead in NC is also within MoE
Logged
Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,770


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1891 on: April 13, 2004, 02:56:27 PM »

This is my new confidence map. Is Kerry even a candidate anymore? I haven't heard much about him in almost a week.



DcPoliticalReport.com has California, Maryland, NY, Wash, Oregon, all within the MOE for Kerry. That's scary you have to admit.

Nonsense. You have to look at the number of polls. And the actual MoE. Any state where the lead is not at least 6%, in most cases 8% or sometimes 10% will be within MoE. If Kerry is consistently between 8 and 14 points ahead, like in CA he's gonna win it easily. Tongue
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1892 on: April 13, 2004, 03:02:51 PM »

A poll from Louisiana:

Bush: 51.7%
Kerry: 37.6%

Meaningless... utterly meaningless... most polls from Louisiana are utter bullsh*t (LA is a very hard state to poll).
And when a poll is done by a group called: "Harris Deville and Associates/Southern Media and Opinion"...
---
LA remains NCF
Logged
??????????
StatesRights
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,126
Political Matrix
E: 7.61, S: 0.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1893 on: April 13, 2004, 03:09:17 PM »

I think most of the Democrats are upset because they are starting to realize it's like '84 all over again and they don't want to accept the fact of it yet.
Logged
Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,770


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1894 on: April 13, 2004, 03:13:50 PM »

I think most of the Democrats are upset because they are starting to realize it's like '84 all over again and they don't want to accept the fact of it yet.

That is very far from credible. It's not 1984 by a long-shot. If Bush does well and Kerry doesn't, which could happen, it could be 1988, but with more EVs for Kerry due to reginal polarization.
Logged
© tweed
Miamiu1027
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,563
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1895 on: April 13, 2004, 03:50:31 PM »

I think most of the Democrats are upset because they are starting to realize it's like '84 all over again and they don't want to accept the fact of it yet.

Nah...Bush is no reagan, the economy is no Reagan...
Logged
Lunar
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,404
Ireland, Republic of
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1896 on: April 13, 2004, 04:44:55 PM »
« Edited: April 13, 2004, 04:45:27 PM by Lunar »

Bush's approval ratings are nowhere near where other incumbants who've been elected have been.  It looks to be a close race and all indicators point to that.

Bush is not going to win in California unless he wins +12 nationally or something.  He can't just gain a million and a half voters for him in such a polarized political climate.  I also doubt that Maryland is a tossup.
Logged
ilikeverin
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 16,410
Timor-Leste


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1897 on: April 13, 2004, 04:51:43 PM »

Here's an interesting map:

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/pred04.php?action=indpred&id=2902

He has just about every state >70% or >80% for whichever candidate.  Oddly enough, some of those states are leaners (Maine, Washington) and one is a tossup (Oregon).
Logged
zachman
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,096


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1898 on: April 13, 2004, 05:01:49 PM »

I wish there was a 55% category for the predictions because otherwise 90% of the states come in +40 and +50.
Logged
© tweed
Miamiu1027
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,563
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1899 on: April 13, 2004, 05:42:31 PM »

Here's an interesting map:

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/pred04.php?action=indpred&id=2902

He has just about every state >70% or >80% for whichever candidate.  Oddly enough, some of those states are leaners (Maine, Washington) and one is a tossup (Oregon).

I don't think he understand what the percentages mean.  He thinks the percentages indicate the % chance one candidate has to win a state, and not the percent of vote the candidate will get.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 71 72 73 74 75 [76] 77 78 79 80 81 ... 99  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.062 seconds with 14 queries.