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ilikeverin
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« Reply #1850 on: April 09, 2004, 09:07:48 PM »

Looking at the map in Vorlon's signature, his "marginal Bush" and "marginal Kerry" states include my 7 tossups, plus the 3 we've been disagreeing about.  Maybe I should ask Vorlon where he gets his information.

Other than that, my map agrees with Vorlon, except that he has Tennessee as solid for Bush.

I might put Tennessee in the solid Bush column, but I'm not
putting Iowa, Oregon, and Minnesota in the tossups!  No way.  Especially not Minnesota.  Smiley


I just noticed that since I posted this, Vorlon has changed his signature map!  He now has Minnesota and Oregon in the "likely Kerry" color (equates to my "lean Kerry").  Now our maps agree even more.  If Vorlon's "marginal" equals my "tossup", we only disagree on two states- Iowa and Tennessee.

Vorlon, you reading this?  Comment?

*hopeful look* Perhaps we have convinced him!
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #1851 on: April 09, 2004, 09:53:25 PM »
« Edited: April 09, 2004, 10:42:46 PM by The Vorlon »

Looking at the map in Vorlon's signature, his "marginal Bush" and "marginal Kerry" states include my 7 tossups, plus the 3 we've been disagreeing about.  Maybe I should ask Vorlon where he gets his information.

Other than that, my map agrees with Vorlon, except that he has Tennessee as solid for Bush.

I might put Tennessee in the solid Bush column, but I'm not
putting Iowa, Oregon, and Minnesota in the tossups!  No way.  Especially not Minnesota.  Smiley


I just noticed that since I posted this, Vorlon has changed his signature map!  He now has Minnesota and Oregon in the "likely Kerry" color (equates to my "lean Kerry").  Now our maps agree even more.  If Vorlon's "marginal" equals my "tossup", we only disagree on two states- Iowa and Tennessee.

Vorlon, you reading this?  Comment?

*hopeful look* Perhaps we have convinced him!

Re Minnesota - The Minni newspaper poll is, well, total crap.  In 2002 they had Mondale beating Coleman by 6 for the Senate seat.

My cat (who is not that bright, even for a cat) could do a better poll than the Minni nespaper.

Throw it out, or line you bird cage with it.  Check out "Freds 100% all beef super hotdog poll" instead - it is scientifically more valid...

(oh ya.. it was not a well done poll)

If it makes you feel better I have Minnesota about +3 - on the lean/likely line.

"Tossup" is just wimping out.. you have to make a call Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Marginal = 0% to 3% point lead
Likely = 3% to 6% point lead
Solid = 6+% lead

so marginal = tossup, or close enough anyway.

Tennessee...

Survey USA, (in a poll that had 7% more democrats in it than it should have) had Bush +11.

It won't be +11, but it's more than 6.

Unless Kerry picks Robert E Lee as his running mate, that state is done.

Iowa.

Both parties are polling the ^&^%^! out of Iowa, there have been 4 full sweeps that I am aware of, and likely a few more..

Both sides are spending very heavily.  Heck, the buzz is even the Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack is high up the Kerry VP list.

The war gets won/lost this year in Iowa/Wisconsin/Penn/Ohio/West Virginia (maybe Michigan, but I don't think so)

Iowa will be a war. Kerry is maybe 2 up right now, and I would even bet on that.

But your map is very sane and reasonable over all. Cheesy
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Fritz
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« Reply #1852 on: April 09, 2004, 10:06:29 PM »

I suppose it depends what poll you read.  As I mentioned earlier, Rasmussen has Kerry ahead in Iowa by 10.  That would make Iowa solid for Kerry, by your logic (if you believe Rasmussen).

The states I've designated tossups have some polls with Kerry leading, some with Bush leading.  Hmmmm, which poll to choose.  At this stage of the game, I think it's more sensible just to call them tossups, they could go either way.

You're probably right about Tennessee.  For some reason Zogby and a few other other pollsters consider the state "in play".

You forgot to mention Florida/New Hampshire/New Mexico Smiley  Thanks for the feedback
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opebo
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« Reply #1853 on: April 09, 2004, 10:23:33 PM »

Tennessee is solid Bush.
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #1854 on: April 09, 2004, 10:36:53 PM »
« Edited: April 09, 2004, 10:49:54 PM by The Vorlon »

I suppose it depends what poll you read.  As I mentioned earlier, Rasmussen has Kerry ahead in Iowa by 10.  That would make Iowa solid for Kerry, by your logic (if you believe Rasmussen).

The states I've designated tossups have some polls with Kerry leading, some with Bush leading.  Hmmmm, which poll to choose.  At this stage of the game, I think it's more sensible just to call them tossups, they could go either way.

You're probably right about Tennessee.  For some reason Zogby and a few other other pollsters consider the state "in play".

You forgot to mention Florida/New Hampshire/New Mexico Smiley  Thanks for the feedback

Florida is actually tending Bush's way.  It's kinda like Minnesota is for Kerry.. more than a lean, but not quite a likely...

New Hampshire - Bush is up in the current round of polls, hence my map.  My gut is that Kerry takes it in the end.

New Mexico - That state is unpollable for some reason - the polls just don't work right in that state.  (Louisiania is unpollable as well) Flip a coin.  I'll give it to Kerry based on Governor Richardson.

By the way, most state polls are pretty useless, be careful what you look at.

Right now the race is very volitile, and most firms frankly are not good enough to sort it out.

At the national level there are maybe 5 firms I would trust right now..
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Fritz
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« Reply #1855 on: April 10, 2004, 12:31:25 AM »
« Edited: April 10, 2004, 01:13:51 AM by Fritz »

And if you don't mind my asking, what are the 5 polls I should be looking at?  

OK, I've taken this one step further.  Assuming I'm right, and there are only 7 states in question.  Kerry needs 46 of those 92 votes to pull off a win.  This can be done in one of the following ways:

Florida, either Penn or Ohio
Florida, Wisconsin, 2 of WV/NM/NH
Penn, Ohio, 1 of Wisc/WV/NM (not NH, that produces a tie)

For all you Bush fans out there, he needs 48 of the 92, which can be done by:

Florida, Penn
Florida, Ohio, 1 other
Florida, Wisc, WV, NM, NH (a tie without NH)
Penn, Ohio, Wisc
Penn, Ohio, 2 of WV/NM/NH

For either side- if Florida is lost, both Pennsylvania and Ohio, and at least one other battleground state, are needed to win.

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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1856 on: April 10, 2004, 03:41:38 AM »

Tennessee is always considered in play, because the state is still divided on Civil War lines, making it winnable for either party if they throw enough resources at it.
Whether Kerry (or Bush for that matter) will is another matter.
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Lunar
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« Reply #1857 on: April 10, 2004, 03:44:01 AM »
« Edited: April 10, 2004, 03:44:53 AM by Lunar »

It has a very strong Republican edge.  This means that if Kerry spends here, Bush will counter that and make Kerry's spending almost useless.

 I think at the point where Kerry picks up TN he has the rest of the battleground states already in the bag, so there will be very little reason for him to focus there.  And because he's not focusing there, it goes Bush.  Hah.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1858 on: April 10, 2004, 03:48:36 AM »

It has a very strong Republican edge.  This means that if Kerry spends here, Bush will counter that and make Kerry's spending almost useless.

It's probably more likely to go for Bush than Kerry, but it's hard to be certain...
Basically if rural Mid TN can outvote rural East TN Kerry wins. If not Bush wins.
How many swing voters exist in TN?
4? Maybe 5? Wink
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Lunar
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« Reply #1859 on: April 10, 2004, 03:52:45 AM »

You can't compare this to 2000 because TN was Gore's home state.  So, unless Kerry has some kind of new advantage here, the Bush margin will increase.  Increased partisanship isn't enough in this case.
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opebo
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« Reply #1860 on: April 10, 2004, 06:54:06 AM »

It has a very strong Republican edge.  This means that if Kerry spends here, Bush will counter that and make Kerry's spending almost useless.

It's probably more likely to go for Bush than Kerry, but it's hard to be certain...
Basically if rural Mid TN can outvote rural East TN Kerry wins. If not Bush wins.
How many swing voters exist in TN?
4? Maybe 5? Wink

Aside from the fact that I think TN leans heavily Republican in any election, its hard to imagine any Tennesseans, even these rural mid-state ones, being particularly eager to vote for a Northeastern liberal.
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muon2
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« Reply #1861 on: April 10, 2004, 08:30:23 AM »

And if you don't mind my asking, what are the 5 polls I should be looking at?  

OK, I've taken this one step further.  Assuming I'm right, and there are only 7 states in question.  Kerry needs 46 of those 92 votes to pull off a win.  This can be done in one of the following ways:

Florida, either Penn or Ohio
Florida, Wisconsin, 2 of WV/NM/NH
Penn, Ohio, 1 of Wisc/WV/NM (not NH, that produces a tie)

For all you Bush fans out there, he needs 48 of the 92, which can be done by:

Florida, Penn
Florida, Ohio, 1 other
Florida, Wisc, WV, NM, NH (a tie without NH)
Penn, Ohio, Wisc
Penn, Ohio, 2 of WV/NM/NH

For either side- if Florida is lost, both Pennsylvania and Ohio, and at least one other battleground state, are needed to win.


That's why Bush will put whatever resources are needed into Florida.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1862 on: April 10, 2004, 08:43:11 AM »

Aside from the fact that I think TN leans heavily Republican in any election,

Since when? TN is close at most levels.

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But they [people in rural Mid TN] will vote for Kerry anyway... he's got a big "D" next to his name... East TN is the same but GOP...
If either candidate got under 45% I'd be suprised...
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khirkhib
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« Reply #1863 on: April 11, 2004, 03:01:01 PM »

OK so I don't think it will happen but I was reading today about a possible 3 way race between Kerry Bush and McCain (4 way if you count Nader but a McCain independent canadcy would probably obscure any Nader influence.  Any predictions as to what the map would be.  I think McCain could grab Arizona, maybe New Mexico and probably California.  McCain would grab many centrists but I don't think he would split the Republican party in half a lot of toss-ups could change directions and even some solid states could become toss-ups.
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opebo
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« Reply #1864 on: April 11, 2004, 03:07:54 PM »

Aside from the fact that I think TN leans heavily Republican in any election,

Since when? TN is close at most levels.

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But they [people in rural Mid TN] will vote for Kerry anyway... he's got a big "D" next to his name... East TN is the same but GOP...
If either candidate got under 45% I'd be suprised...

The state has two GOP senators.  Its a lot like Missouri - close, but definitely tips towards conservatism.  It has more Dem Representatives than we do, but votes slightly more GOP presidentially.

Republican presidential candidates usually win from 45-55% of the vote in TN, while Democrats have not broken 50% since Jimmy Carter in 1976.  So the state is clearly a strong GOP lean.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1865 on: April 11, 2004, 03:47:39 PM »

The state has two GOP senators.  Its a lot like Missouri - close, but definitely tips towards conservatism.  It has more Dem Representatives than we do, but votes slightly more GOP presidentially.

Republican presidential candidates usually win from 45-55% of the vote in TN, while Democrats have not broken 50% since Jimmy Carter in 1976.  So the state is clearly a strong GOP lean.

You said it was "heavily Republican", a statement that is untrue.
It's not a good idea to generalise about a state as divided as Tennessee... some of it is extremly conservative, some of it is extremly populist...
---
BTW, although it currently has two GOP Senators, Frist is retiring in 2006 and the Dems have a good chance at picking up the seat (hopefully with Harold Ford jr)... and Lamar Alexander is a "wet" (ie: moderate. The phrase is from the UK) Republican.
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opebo
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« Reply #1866 on: April 11, 2004, 04:02:09 PM »

The state has two GOP senators.  Its a lot like Missouri - close, but definitely tips towards conservatism.  It has more Dem Representatives than we do, but votes slightly more GOP presidentially.

Republican presidential candidates usually win from 45-55% of the vote in TN, while Democrats have not broken 50% since Jimmy Carter in 1976.  So the state is clearly a strong GOP lean.

You said it was "heavily Republican", a statement that is untrue.
It's not a good idea to generalise about a state as divided as Tennessee... some of it is extremly conservative, some of it is extremly populist...
---
BTW, although it currently has two GOP Senators, Frist is retiring in 2006 and the Dems have a good chance at picking up the seat (hopefully with Harold Ford jr)... and Lamar Alexander is a "wet" (ie: moderate. The phrase is from the UK) Republican.

Point taken - I overstated the case.  I stand by the strong lean case I made above.  A more interesting question might be - which way is it trending?  I say gradually more GOP.
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Ben.
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« Reply #1867 on: April 11, 2004, 06:51:48 PM »

The state has two GOP senators.  Its a lot like Missouri - close, but definitely tips towards conservatism.  It has more Dem Representatives than we do, but votes slightly more GOP presidentially.

Republican presidential candidates usually win from 45-55% of the vote in TN, while Democrats have not broken 50% since Jimmy Carter in 1976.  So the state is clearly a strong GOP lean.

You said it was "heavily Republican", a statement that is untrue.
It's not a good idea to generalise about a state as divided as Tennessee... some of it is extremly conservative, some of it is extremly populist...
---
BTW, although it currently has two GOP Senators, Frist is retiring in 2006 and the Dems have a good chance at picking up the seat (hopefully with Harold Ford jr)... and Lamar Alexander is a "wet" (ie: moderate. The phrase is from the UK) Republican.

Point taken - I overstated the case.  I stand by the strong lean case I made above.  A more interesting question might be - which way is it trending?  I say gradually more GOP.

Opebo I would tend to agree that Tennessee leans solidly to Bush in November… however it is a (very) Probable Bush rather than a solid Bush IMHO… I think that Tennessee is not tending towards either party directly, the growing populations in Nashville, Humboldt and Memphis should help the moderate Dems and more generally there is still a solid base for the Democratic Party but as Al said this is more than countered by the populations in the east of the state and cities such as Tullahoma, Chattanooga and Knoxville, ultimately I think Tennessee will remain a moderately GOP leaning state however this does not mean it is unattainable for the Democrats in the near future, for Kerry I agree it is very much out of reach, but for Harold Ford in 2006 (Please GOD!!!) and perhaps in 2008 (depending on the situation) it will be winnable for the Democrats in a similar way to how PA is winnable for the GOP this November… actually in terms of how both party’s stand TN is a lot like PA reversed, PA has a strong, solid conservative “T” in its centre and GOP victories rest on big turnout here and solid showings in the more moderate suburban areas around Philly and the “blue collar” districts in the west of the state… Likewise Democrat wins in TN depend on a solid turnout in the rural, populist interior of the state, boosted by large turnouts from the minority populations in places such as Memphis and the west of the state and more generally winning in the suburban areas in the north and west of the state… on balance in a match up between generic candidates I’d say both where tossups and will continue to be so imho… however in this election I’d say it would be much easier for the GOP to win PA than for Kerry to take TN…            
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Lunar
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« Reply #1868 on: April 11, 2004, 08:22:34 PM »

Recents:

****
http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/pred04.php?action=indpred&id=2861

Ah, a serious one that has California, Rhode Island, New York, Vermont all tossups.  Kind of strange that  New Mexico is as well since if Bush has caught up 10+ points in Cali and 20+ in Rhode Island, he should be stomping the Southwest.

Justification is that the Ahnuld will get votes for Bush in California and Kerry's too liberal for New England.

****

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/pred04.php?action=indpred&id=2857

Kerry with Montana, North Dakota, the entire Southwest, Arkansas and Missouri but somehow still losing Maryland (!?) West Virginia and Pennsylvania.
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« Reply #1869 on: April 11, 2004, 08:53:45 PM »

Recents:

****
http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/pred04.php?action=indpred&id=2861

Ah, a serious one that has California, Rhode Island, New York, Vermont all tossups.  Kind of strange that  New Mexico is as well since if Bush has caught up 10+ points in Cali and 20+ in Rhode Island, he should be stomping the Southwest.

Justification is that the Ahnuld will get votes for Bush in California and Kerry's too liberal for New England.

****

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/pred04.php?action=indpred&id=2857

Kerry with Montana, North Dakota, the entire Southwest, Arkansas and Missouri but somehow still losing Maryland (!?) West Virginia and Pennsylvania.

At least those people left comments to justify their idiacy.
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Lunar
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« Reply #1870 on: April 11, 2004, 08:57:49 PM »

Yes, both were serious and thought-out which makes it all the more interesting since they are obviously very wrong.
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« Reply #1871 on: April 11, 2004, 10:07:51 PM »

Here is a really whacky one! What was this dude thinking?

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/pred04.php?action=indpred&id=2571
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #1872 on: April 11, 2004, 10:12:31 PM »


LOL!
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Lunar
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« Reply #1873 on: April 11, 2004, 11:10:56 PM »
« Edited: April 11, 2004, 11:17:12 PM by Lunar »


Youch.  Colorado and Lousiana aren't as off the wall as Montana.  For example, there are plenty with Kerry taking Arizona, but Colorado is the same in the latest polls.  I'm not posting people who just have Kerry winning Missouri, but those who have that and have him picking up Montana but losing Maryland.

And of course, I know mine is a stretch.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1874 on: April 12, 2004, 06:11:19 AM »
« Edited: April 12, 2004, 09:10:28 AM by Al »

Opebo I would tend to agree that Tennessee leans solidly to Bush in November… however it is a (very) Probable Bush rather than a solid Bush IMHO… I think that Tennessee is not tending towards either party directly, the growing populations in Nashville, Humboldt and Memphis should help the moderate Dems and more generally there is still a solid base for the Democratic Party but as Al said this is more than countered by the populations in the east of the state and cities such as Tullahoma, Chattanooga and Knoxville, ultimately I think Tennessee will remain a moderately GOP leaning state however this does not mean it is unattainable for the Democrats in the near future, for Kerry I agree it is very much out of reach, but for Harold Ford in 2006 (Please GOD!!!) and perhaps in 2008 (depending on the situation) it will be winnable for the Democrats in a similar way to how PA is winnable for the GOP this November… actually in terms of how both party’s stand TN is a lot like PA reversed, PA has a strong, solid conservative “T” in its centre and GOP victories rest on big turnout here and solid showings in the more moderate suburban areas around Philly and the “blue collar” districts in the west of the state… Likewise Democrat wins in TN depend on a solid turnout in the rural, populist interior of the state, boosted by large turnouts from the minority populations in places such as Memphis and the west of the state and more generally winning in the suburban areas in the north and west of the state… on balance in a match up between generic candidates I’d say both where tossups and will continue to be so imho… however in this election I’d say it would be much easier for the GOP to win PA than for Kerry to take TN…            

Bush is *probably* more likely to take PA than for Kerry to take TN, but I have both as "NCF" due to the politics of turnout in both states that make them unpredictable.
(In fact if I didn't have them both as NCF I would be going against my methodology).
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