2004 User Predictions - Discussion
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Author Topic: 2004 User Predictions - Discussion  (Read 866090 times)
JohnFKennedy
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1675 on: March 27, 2004, 02:50:37 PM »

I can see Ohio easliy falling into the Kerry column.  I am on the Kentucky side of the river in Cincinnati, and although Cincinnati is definately "Bush Country",  I do not believe the rest of Ohio will vote that way.  I hope Bush gives Ohio the attention it deserves.  As of last night, Kerry had a 48-46 lead over Bush in Ohio.  A marginal lead at best, and only time will tell.


welcome to the forums klrbzzz!

Where are my manners!.... yeah welcome to the forum... where politics comes alive!... or so I'm told...

and all those you thought were dead do too.
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klrbzzz
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« Reply #1676 on: March 27, 2004, 02:54:10 PM »

Thank you all Smiley
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Platypus
hughento
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« Reply #1677 on: March 27, 2004, 04:26:59 PM »

See the Democrats are nice Wink

welcome Smiley

Back to predicting-Richardson would win NM, maybe NV, maybe FL and maybe AZ. Edwards wouldn't help in any specific states, but would nationally. I think if I had to give states he would help in, it would be here in IA, WI, MN, WV and maybe even FL.

I'll post my updates prediction in a moment.
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Platypus
hughento
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« Reply #1678 on: March 27, 2004, 04:32:49 PM »
« Edited: March 27, 2004, 04:33:47 PM by hughento »

Kerry/Richardson


Kerry 267-Bush 271.
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Lunar
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« Reply #1679 on: March 27, 2004, 04:34:12 PM »

Kerry might be able to "steal" a couple of Southern states with Edwards on the ticket.  I could see South Carolina putting Kerry over the top with this scenario, even though Kerry has minimal chances in the South.

I doubt South Carolina would put the Democrats over the top with Edwards on the top of the ticket, let alone the bottom.  I'd be surprised if Kerry chose him, mostly because everything Edwards has going for him (populist, charisma, Southern) mostly does nothing if he's only a VP.  

Kerry would do best by choosing a VP from either the Southwest or Midwest, as those regions are most likely to switch over with a small boost from a VP from the region.

This dicussion of likely VP candidates seems pretty cool:
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/pres_veep2.htm
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/pres_veep2-table.htm

I disagree with them about Wes Clark and Max Cleland (opposite views on both), but still interesting.
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Platypus
hughento
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« Reply #1680 on: March 27, 2004, 04:35:18 PM »

Keryy/Edwards
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Platypus
hughento
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« Reply #1681 on: March 27, 2004, 04:39:10 PM »

Kerry/Vilsack (I can Dream)

Kerry 254-284 Bush

BTW, Kerry/Edwards has Kerry winning 284-254)
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Platypus
hughento
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« Reply #1682 on: March 27, 2004, 04:41:15 PM »

Last one, Kerry/Warner


Kerry 270-268 Bush
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1683 on: March 27, 2004, 05:15:25 PM »

The Carolina's are possible upsets... both will depend on jobs.
Now if Kerry picks Edwards, he could make him spend all his time in the South Atlantic
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Gustaf
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« Reply #1684 on: March 27, 2004, 05:16:29 PM »

It seems all Kerry has to do is pick a VP and he wins. Smiley
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Platypus
hughento
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« Reply #1685 on: March 27, 2004, 05:21:23 PM »

sssh Cheesy

If he chooses Howard Dean he loses, if that helps.

He also loses with Richardson and Vilsack on my maps, I think.
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zachman
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« Reply #1686 on: March 27, 2004, 05:33:05 PM »

Richardson would certainly help Kerry. I'm against Vilsack, Bayh, or Gephardt. I really don't like the old Democrats and I don't want two on the ticket.
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Ben.
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« Reply #1687 on: March 27, 2004, 05:36:38 PM »

Last one, Kerry/Warner


Kerry 270-268 Bush

I really need to learn how to use pictuers...
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Gustaf
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« Reply #1688 on: March 27, 2004, 05:39:11 PM »

Last one, Kerry/Warner


Kerry 270-268 Bush

I really need to learn how to use pictuers...

It's easy. Smiley
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zachman
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« Reply #1689 on: March 27, 2004, 05:39:48 PM »

Warner is popular among rural voter, right? Put Iowa in the Kerry column. I'd like to hear Warner speak, I still haven't, but he looks and sounds like a strong VP pick.
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Platypus
hughento
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« Reply #1690 on: March 27, 2004, 05:41:52 PM »

I don't think Warner would help in IA because we don't like southerners here at all. Edwards is an exception because he spent SO much time here, and got to know us.

We are very isolationist here-Virginia isn't our concern, and Illinois is only slightly on the radar Tongue
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Lunar
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« Reply #1691 on: March 27, 2004, 07:18:19 PM »



I think Kerry was born in Colorado. If I had to pick a state that almost everyone thinks is safe, and put it in the other column, I would pick Colorado too.

Just checked and that's correct.  Not quite Bush's situation in his birthplace (Connecticut) so he might be able to push that in Colorado if he does it right.
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zachman
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« Reply #1692 on: March 27, 2004, 07:22:41 PM »

Birth place or former residence doesn't matter. The Bush's are no longer popular in Connecticut, and Gore couldn't win Tennessee in 2000.
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dunn
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« Reply #1693 on: March 27, 2004, 07:30:38 PM »

His father, Richard, served in CO and he happen to be born there. Few weeks after Kerry's birth, his family returned to Massachusetts.
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Lunar
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« Reply #1694 on: March 27, 2004, 07:37:09 PM »

I know, I know.  But I think it will give him a few votes if he can appear to be more regional than Bush.
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Rococo4
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« Reply #1695 on: March 28, 2004, 01:43:46 AM »

I know, I know.  But I think it will give him a few votes if he can appear to be more regional than Bush.

i think your predictions are dead on for now...except Louisana, which would give us the same result as 2000 (I hope)
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Rococo4
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« Reply #1696 on: March 28, 2004, 01:50:11 AM »

I know, I know.  But I think it will give him a few votes if he can appear to be more regional than Bush.

i think your predictions are dead on for now...except Louisana, which would give us the same result as 2000 (I hope)

sorry, it would be 272 not 271, but still a win
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Lunar
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« Reply #1697 on: March 28, 2004, 01:53:34 AM »
« Edited: March 28, 2004, 01:54:31 AM by Lunar »

Yeah I'm not sure about LA either, but I think there is a reasonable chance and I want to take a gamble, heh.  All depends on how Kerry plays the cards he has at the moment.
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Platypus
hughento
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« Reply #1698 on: March 28, 2004, 03:35:54 AM »

I still can't see Kerry winning both CO and LA but losing IA-very unlikely.
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Ben.
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« Reply #1699 on: March 28, 2004, 04:10:44 AM »



How?
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