|           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 08, 2020, 12:12:17 am
News:
If you are having trouble logging in due to invalid user name / pass:

Consider resetting your account password, as you may have forgotten it over time if using a password manager.

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2004 U.S. Presidential Election
  2004 User Predictions - Discussion
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 62 63 64 65 66 [67] 68 69 70 71 72 ... 99 Print
Author Topic: 2004 User Predictions - Discussion  (Read 826851 times)
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 63,029
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1650 on: March 26, 2004, 06:11:16 pm »

He wants to set up an Islamic Caliphate. And kill everyone else.
Logged
opebo
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 47,053


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1651 on: March 26, 2004, 06:24:07 pm »

He wants to set up an Islamic Caliphate. And kill everyone else.

So Kerry would be preferred over Bush.
Logged
Platypus
hughento
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,457
Australia


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1652 on: March 26, 2004, 06:30:44 pm »

Bush would be preffered, because he isn't actually fighting a war on terror. I think that Kerry would be more active in getting rid of OBL then Saddam-both are truly evil, but OBL is worse, imho.
Logged
Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,602


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1653 on: March 26, 2004, 06:32:52 pm »

We all need to ask the question, who does UBL want to win the election?

He doesn't care. In his f***** up mind ALL Americans are "The Enemy"...

It depends if he wants us to roll over now, or if he wants to fight it out.  Kerry would roll over Spanish style, Bush would fight.  Which does UBL want?


Kerry would not roll over, it'd both be stupid and undoable in the current political climate.
Logged
opebo
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 47,053


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1654 on: March 26, 2004, 07:12:07 pm »

We all need to ask the question, who does UBL want to win the election?

He doesn't care. In his f***** up mind ALL Americans are "The Enemy"...

It depends if he wants us to roll over now, or if he wants to fight it out.  Kerry would roll over Spanish style, Bush would fight.  Which does UBL want?


Kerry would not roll over, it'd both be stupid and undoable in the current political climate.

Relative to Bush, he would roll over - its what his supporters want.
Logged
Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,602


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1655 on: March 26, 2004, 07:30:08 pm »

We all need to ask the question, who does UBL want to win the election?

He doesn't care. In his f***** up mind ALL Americans are "The Enemy"...

It depends if he wants us to roll over now, or if he wants to fight it out.  Kerry would roll over Spanish style, Bush would fight.  Which does UBL want?


Kerry would not roll over, it'd both be stupid and undoable in the current political climate.

Relative to Bush, he would roll over - its what his supporters want.

Relative to Bush, lol...and he won't care that much about his 'supporters', it's the swing voters who matter. The guy is not an idiot, I think he'll do what needs to be done. And anyway I don't think there'll be much need of invading countries again, for the purpose of terrorism, for some time to come.
Logged
opebo
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 47,053


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1656 on: March 26, 2004, 07:38:53 pm »

We all need to ask the question, who does UBL want to win the election?

He doesn't care. In his f***** up mind ALL Americans are "The Enemy"...

It depends if he wants us to roll over now, or if he wants to fight it out.  Kerry would roll over Spanish style, Bush would fight.  Which does UBL want?


Kerry would not roll over, it'd both be stupid and undoable in the current political climate.

Relative to Bush, he would roll over - its what his supporters want.

Relative to Bush, lol...and he won't care that much about his 'supporters', it's the swing voters who matter. The guy is not an idiot, I think he'll do what needs to be done. And anyway I don't think there'll be much need of invading countries again, for the purpose of terrorism, for some time to come.

No, he'll just do some very minimalist 'criminal justice' type efforts, which of course will do nothing at all.  

As for invasions, they're one of many tools that will have to be employed in the future - this is all out war.
Logged
Lunar
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,415
Ireland, Republic of
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1657 on: March 27, 2004, 01:42:32 pm »
« Edited: March 27, 2004, 01:48:11 pm by Lunar »

Read most of the latter part of the thread, and here are my predictions:



Dem - 275
Rep  - 263

Close ones being:



Dem- 231
Rep - 189
Tos  - 118

I think there will be a couple surprises,  so I made them CO and LA.  I'm expecting trends to continue, and unless Bush can bring up his dismal right-track and economics numbers, he's in for a close race.

I view a least one upset as a certainty, so I'm trying to guess where they will occur.

Anyway:

West

I can assure you all that California is in no danger of going Republican.  If anything, it's been getting more Democratic.   People don't necessarily credit any of Arnold's successes with a Republican success.

I have kept Oregon and Washington Democratic.  The population centers such as around Seattle are Democratic strongholds and I think that'll outweigh the rural vote.

Southwest

I think Bush will be dumping his campaign war chest in the Southwest, making it very difficult for Kerry to progress.  However, I think Colorado will be slightly ignored and Kerry will push hard with the Hispanic vote here.  We'll have to see.  I know most people can't see Colorado switching with New Mexico staying blue, but I suspect a surprise.

Midwest

I have Iowa switching to the GOP, but maybe I'll be wrong since it had a lot of attention from the Dems in the primaries.  I think Bush will focus here and make it swing over.

Minnesota stays Democratic, I don't see it switching in this election.

Ohio goes Republican.  I can't see Kerry winning this state for some reason.  Another one that will simply be overwhelmed by money, combined with an edge to the GOP over social issues.

Northeast

Both Maine and New Hampshire will go Kerry.  He's from the area and Bush's popularity in New England has been dropping.

Pennsylvania goes Democratic.  I think this will be one of the main focuses of the Dems and from reading other posts in the thread, Philidelphia is strongly Democratic and it's unlikely for the rural areas to overcome this.  I don't think social issues are as big of a deal here.

South

West Virginia goes Democratic.  A large number of lower-class and unionized voters will turn this state back to its old owners.  

I suspect Missouri and Arkansas will stay GOP.   Too much for the Dems to overcome.

Florida will stay Republican simply because of the huge amount of attention it's getting.  There is a large grass-roots movement for the GOP forming as well.

I chose Louisiana as my second upset.  With some Democratic trends in local elections (for Southerners, not Kerry-types I'll admit), and with a large Catholic population, I can see this switching by November.  


Logged
JohnFKennedy
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 7,449


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1658 on: March 27, 2004, 01:46:25 pm »

I don't think Colorado will go democrat.

welcome to the board Lunar!
Logged
© tweed
Miamiu1027
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,597
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1659 on: March 27, 2004, 02:01:07 pm »

I don't think Colorado will go democrat.

welcome to the board Lunar!
Only if the VP is Richarson.
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 63,029
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1660 on: March 27, 2004, 02:08:56 pm »

Not a bad prediction, Lunar. I disagree about Colorado, but you give a good reason for why.
Welcome to the forum! Smiley
Logged
© tweed
Miamiu1027
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,597
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1661 on: March 27, 2004, 02:14:13 pm »

With Richardson:
Logged
klrbzzz
Rookie
**
Posts: 127


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1662 on: March 27, 2004, 02:21:45 pm »

I can see Ohio easliy falling into the Kerry column.  I am on the Kentucky side of the river in Cincinnati, and although Cincinnati is definately "Bush Country",  I do not believe the rest of Ohio will vote that way.  I hope Bush gives Ohio the attention it deserves.  As of last night, Kerry had a 48-46 lead over Bush in Ohio.  A marginal lead at best, and only time will tell.
Logged
Ben.
Ben
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,241


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1663 on: March 27, 2004, 02:24:50 pm »



Kerry will not lose all of the steel states added to that i really doubt that Kerry will lose WI and i think he will be very strong in NH...what would you prediction be with Edwards on the ticket?... furthermore I donít see AZ and NV going to the Dems just because Richardson is on the ticket... also ultimately i doubt FL will go to Kerry (though it will be close) we will probably be spared a repeat of the "recount debacle"... the results you suggest would really require Kerry to effectively abandon the steel states i doubt that Bush will sweep them the political terrain in all three (OH, PA and WV) favours Kerry and Bush is in for a tough fight in each of them...but Kerry will win PA and OH before he wins WV IMHO...        
Logged
© tweed
Miamiu1027
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,597
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1664 on: March 27, 2004, 02:29:12 pm »

edwards on the ticket?  Maybe take away NM, AZ, FL, and NV, and add OH, WI, and IA.
Logged
klrbzzz
Rookie
**
Posts: 127


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1665 on: March 27, 2004, 02:29:26 pm »

Kerry might be able to "steal" a couple of Southern states with Edwards on the ticket.  I could see South Carolina putting Kerry over the top with this scenario, even though Kerry has minimal chances in the South.
Logged
JohnFKennedy
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 7,449


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1666 on: March 27, 2004, 02:30:37 pm »

I can see Ohio easliy falling into the Kerry column.  I am on the Kentucky side of the river in Cincinnati, and although Cincinnati is definately "Bush Country",  I do not believe the rest of Ohio will vote that way.  I hope Bush gives Ohio the attention it deserves.  As of last night, Kerry had a 48-46 lead over Bush in Ohio.  A marginal lead at best, and only time will tell.


welcome to the forums klrbzzz!
Logged
klrbzzz
Rookie
**
Posts: 127


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1667 on: March 27, 2004, 02:33:42 pm »

Thanks JohnFKennedy!!!!!
Logged
JohnFKennedy
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 7,449


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1668 on: March 27, 2004, 02:34:53 pm »


I bet you thought I was dead till you came here, lol Wink
Logged
zachman
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,097


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1669 on: March 27, 2004, 02:36:14 pm »

Edwards' message speaks best about free trade which makes him stongest in the midwest. He would put Tennessee, Virginia and Louisiana well into play though.
Logged
klrbzzz
Rookie
**
Posts: 127


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1670 on: March 27, 2004, 02:37:10 pm »

I guess those history classes i took were a waste of  time Smiley
Logged
JohnFKennedy
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 7,449


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1671 on: March 27, 2004, 02:39:42 pm »

I guess those history classes i took were a waste of  time Smiley

He who does not learn from history is doomed to repeat it.

So they weren't a waste of time!
Logged
Kghadial
Rookie
**
Posts: 224


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1672 on: March 27, 2004, 02:43:21 pm »

Southwest

I think Bush will be dumping his campaign war chest in the Southwest, making it very difficult for Kerry to progress.  However, I think Colorado will be slightly ignored and Kerry will push hard with the Hispanic vote here.  We'll have to see.  I know most people can't see Colorado switching with New Mexico staying blue, but I suspect a surprise.



I think Kerry was born in Colorado. If I had to pick a state that almost everyone thinks is safe, and put it in the other column, I would pick Colorado too.
Logged
klrbzzz
Rookie
**
Posts: 127


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1673 on: March 27, 2004, 02:48:48 pm »

Just joking about that history thing, even though I have repeated past mistakes, as minor as they were.  Being that I am in a heavy GOP area, some of my acquaintances actually think Bush will win CA.  To set the record straight, Bush will win CA the day that Kerry wins TX.
Logged
Ben.
Ben
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,241


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1674 on: March 27, 2004, 02:49:40 pm »

I can see Ohio easliy falling into the Kerry column.  I am on the Kentucky side of the river in Cincinnati, and although Cincinnati is definately "Bush Country",  I do not believe the rest of Ohio will vote that way.  I hope Bush gives Ohio the attention it deserves.  As of last night, Kerry had a 48-46 lead over Bush in Ohio.  A marginal lead at best, and only time will tell.


welcome to the forums klrbzzz!

Where are my manners!.... yeah welcome to the forum... where politics comes alive!... or so I'm told...
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 62 63 64 65 66 [67] 68 69 70 71 72 ... 99 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines