2004 User Predictions - Discussion
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #1550 on: March 16, 2004, 03:57:18 PM »

Gore underperformed in Southern VA ("Southside")... a mix of his apparent stances on coal and tobacco.
If Kerry chooses a running mate who can appeal to these people he has a chance.



Gore lost the Panhandle, which is basically an extension of the coal mining part of WV.  But that area will not swing that state to Kerry.  Almost *all* of WV is 'that area', so Kerry will win there in all likelyhood.
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jmfcst
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« Reply #1551 on: March 16, 2004, 04:04:08 PM »

Gore underperformed in Southern VA ("Southside")... a mix of his apparent stances on coal and tobacco.
If Kerry chooses a running mate who can appeal to these people he has a chance.

I don't understand why VA and LA are at issue in this thread since, regardless of who wins them, they are NOT going to decide this election barring a Kerry VP nominee from either state.

The states that will decide the election are those states in 2000 that were decided by 6 or fewer points (FL, OR, NM, MO, IA, WI, OH, NH, WV, PA, MN).  And I excluded TENN and ARK from this list since they were the home states of Gore and Clinton.
 
I would think OH, PA, and FL are the keys.  Whoever wins 2 of the 3 will be extremely hard to beat.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #1552 on: March 16, 2004, 04:04:58 PM »

Gore underperformed in Southern VA ("Southside")... a mix of his apparent stances on coal and tobacco.
If Kerry chooses a running mate who can appeal to these people he has a chance.

I don't understand why VA and LA are at issue in this thread since, regardless of who wins them, they are NOT going to decide this election barring a Kerry VP nominee from either state.

The states that will decide the election are those states in 2000 that were decided by 6 or fewer points (FL, OR, NM, MO, IA, WI, OH, NH, WV, PA, MN).  And I excluded TENN and ARK from this list since they were the home states of Gore and Clinton.
 
I would think OH, PA, and FL are the keys.  Whoever wins 2 of the 3 will be extremely hard to beat.

Yep. Smiley
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1553 on: March 16, 2004, 04:06:02 PM »

He also underperformed in CD's 4 and 5 (mind you so did Clinton).

VA is swinging towards the Dems anyway (thanks the expansion of the liberal suburbs)... and picking up more votes in the rest of the state can't hurt.

Still a tossup mind.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #1554 on: March 16, 2004, 04:14:10 PM »

He also underperformed in CD's 4 and 5 (mind you so did Clinton).

VA is swinging towards the Dems anyway (thanks the expansion of the liberal suburbs)... and picking up more votes in the rest of the state can't hurt.

Still a tossup mind.

What's the defintion of underperforming here? Doing worse than FDR or what? Huh
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zachman
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« Reply #1555 on: March 16, 2004, 05:23:42 PM »

I think Virginia will be much more closer than some of the 5% and under states, like Missouri for Bush or Kerry in Washington and Maine.
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jmfcst
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« Reply #1556 on: March 16, 2004, 05:49:46 PM »

I think Virginia will be much more closer than some of the 5% and under states, like Missouri for Bush or Kerry in Washington and Maine.

If Kerry wins VA, then he have at least 350 electoral votes.  The state is simply not an issue.
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zachman
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« Reply #1557 on: March 16, 2004, 05:51:34 PM »

Its worth the effort over Misssouri.
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classical liberal
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« Reply #1558 on: March 16, 2004, 10:19:53 PM »
« Edited: March 16, 2004, 10:24:29 PM by RightWingNut »

Kerry will win VA before he wins MO, AR, or TN.  The political climate is shifting drastically.  I expect to see massive Democratic gains in the DC, Hampton, and Richmond suburbs, which have been getting increasingly liberal as time passes.  Farifax, Henrico, Virginia Beach, Chesapeake, and Prince William Counties will all go for the Dems this time, maybe Isle of Wight, Clarke, Warren, Albemarle, Nelson, Dinwiddie, and Loudon Counties too but probably not till '08.  That will probably shift the state.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #1559 on: March 17, 2004, 12:08:40 AM »

Gov. Richardson might give the Dems AZ and CO.  But that's a slim chance of happening.  Sen. Edwards might help the Dems in OH, IN, IA, TN, and MO.  Maybe VA and WV too.
Kerry winning without Ohio? It's you is the dreamer, my friend...
You're dreaming in both cases.  All the above mentioned states will go GOP, even in a Bush loss.

I think Opebo must ahve misread something...but this is a not too unlikely scenario in which the above happens:


The Dems might even keep Minnesota and gain New Hampshire. So yeah, I admit it's possible. I probably believed Florida was also mentioned or something...
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« Reply #1560 on: March 17, 2004, 02:07:36 AM »

Kerry will win VA before he wins MO, AR, or TN.  The political climate is shifting drastically.  I expect to see massive Democratic gains in the DC, Hampton, and Richmond suburbs, which have been getting increasingly liberal as time passes.  Farifax, Henrico, Virginia Beach, Chesapeake, and Prince William Counties will all go for the Dems this time, maybe Isle of Wight, Clarke, Warren, Albemarle, Nelson, Dinwiddie, and Loudon Counties too but probably not till '08.  That will probably shift the state.

The state is largely military. You think the large military populations of the state are going to go Democrat?
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #1561 on: March 17, 2004, 08:05:19 AM »

I agree, Virginia is not in play.
In 2008, it will be.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1562 on: March 17, 2004, 09:11:45 AM »

What's the defintion of underperforming here? Doing worse than FDR or what? Huh

He didn't do as well as he should have done
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DrumBucket
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« Reply #1563 on: March 17, 2004, 10:11:59 AM »

Neither Florida nor Virginia are or will be in play.  Rack up both for Bush.
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CTguy
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« Reply #1564 on: March 17, 2004, 10:21:18 AM »

Florida will definitely be in play.  And I think it is more likely Kerry will win it for 2 reasons:

1.) The cuban vote, which Bush won in 2000 by an 8-1 margin, is not nearly as energized because of some refugee policies.  

2.) The new voters in the state since 2000 seem more likely to vote for Kerry since 3 groups that have increased their ratio of the population are blacks, non-cuban hispanics, and jewish americans.  

Why else would Bush be spending so much money there 8 months before the election?
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zachman
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« Reply #1565 on: March 17, 2004, 04:06:12 PM »

In the last 15 years, Florida has accelerated to become far more democratic. It is not a traditional Southern state, and the high migration rates to there will keep benefiting the Democrats. Ohio and Pennsylvania seem to have opposite trends, and will start becoming harder for the Democrats.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #1566 on: March 17, 2004, 05:05:14 PM »

Updated:



Bush 319
Kerry 219
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Gustaf
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« Reply #1567 on: March 17, 2004, 05:06:04 PM »

You lost faith in Kerry all  in a sudden? So have I, but I haven't got around to changing my map yet...
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #1568 on: March 17, 2004, 05:08:25 PM »

You lost faith in Kerry all  in a sudden?

Yes.  He is a god damned joke.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #1569 on: March 17, 2004, 05:08:50 PM »
« Edited: March 17, 2004, 05:09:44 PM by Gustaf »

I was wrong, I had alraedy changed my map...



Bush wins 302-236
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Gustaf
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« Reply #1570 on: March 17, 2004, 05:10:14 PM »

You lost faith in Kerry all  in a sudden?

Yes.  He is a god damned joke.

Not a funny one though...
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #1571 on: March 17, 2004, 05:14:32 PM »

I think John "Unnamed foreign leaders want me to win" Kerry will win WV pretty easily...
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jmfcst
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« Reply #1572 on: March 17, 2004, 05:17:04 PM »

You lost faith in Kerry all  in a sudden?

Yes.  He is a god damned joke.

You and Gustaf need to clue me in to your problems with Kerry.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #1573 on: March 17, 2004, 05:18:09 PM »


I think it has been quite obvious for months now that I dislike Kerry.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #1574 on: March 17, 2004, 05:21:19 PM »

You lost faith in Kerry all  in a sudden?

Yes.  He is a god damned joke.

You and Gustaf need to clue me in to your problems with Kerry.

He makes gaffes, he has no back-bone (not necessarily a bad thing though), lacks charisma and is a rich senator from Massachusetts with a very liberal record. I am not willing to call the race yet, but Bush reelection chances are going up again. Even though the Libya-man-woman incident was kind of embarrasing to Bush. Says a lot of the Republican view of women, lol. Smiley
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