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Author Topic: 2004 User Predictions - Discussion  (Read 866157 times)
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #1450 on: March 14, 2004, 12:14:40 PM »


Cheesy Cheesy

Anyway, updated prediction today:



Bush/Cheney 282
Kerry/Edwards 256
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Siege40
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« Reply #1451 on: March 14, 2004, 01:00:38 PM »

The Republicans will win Pennsylvania and Louisiana? I don't know... I don't know much but that sounds a little crazy to me. And Kerry wins California but not the election? Madness is rife in this discussion.

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zachman
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« Reply #1452 on: March 14, 2004, 01:01:57 PM »

Ohio will go for Kerry, only if Pennsylvania does.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #1453 on: March 14, 2004, 01:03:14 PM »

Ohio will go for Kerry, only if Pennsylvania does.

JOBS

Ohio don't got em
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zachman
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« Reply #1454 on: March 14, 2004, 01:11:03 PM »

Pennsylvania hasn't been hard hit by jobs?

We're out of the recession belt AND anti-Bush.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #1455 on: March 14, 2004, 01:12:28 PM »

Pennsylvania hasn't been hard hit by jobs?

We're out of the recession belt AND anti-Bush.

Rural Central-Western PA yes, which is heavily GOP for the most part.
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StatesRights
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« Reply #1456 on: March 14, 2004, 02:05:57 PM »

Miami, it sounds like you almost hope Bush will win. But I agree with you Dean would have been a better candidate. I hope Bush wins but I don't think over the next 8 months Kerry will be much of a challenge. I dont know the job situation in Ohio, but in the Presidents speech the other day things sounded pretty good or recovering at least. If Bush is only a 1 termer he will be the most successful 1 termer in U.S. History. Everything about the U.S. Economy is growing but the job growth is slow. Consumer Confidence is higher now then when Clinton ran for re-election, unemployment is lower then when Clinton ran. Clintons unemployment rate was 6.4% compared to Bushs' 5.5%.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #1457 on: March 14, 2004, 02:10:38 PM »

Miami, it sounds like you almost hope Bush will win. But I agree with you Dean would have been a better candidate. I hope Bush wins but I don't think over the next 8 months Kerry will be much of a challenge. I dont know the job situation in Ohio, but in the Presidents speech the other day things sounded pretty good or recovering at least. If Bush is only a 1 termer he will be the most successful 1 termer in U.S. History. Everything about the U.S. Economy is growing but the job growth is slow. Consumer Confidence is higher now then when Clinton ran for re-election, unemployment is lower then when Clinton ran. Clintons unemployment rate was 6.4% compared to Bushs' 5.5%.

Clinton ran with an economy that had been improving constantly wince he took office, Bush is doing the opposite. And that Bush says things are going great in his speech doesn't really say too much, he isn't the most objective person in the world, you know... Tongue

And the economy should be doing good, considering how badly it's been going before and the constant technological progress.
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StatesRights
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« Reply #1458 on: March 14, 2004, 02:13:36 PM »

I do not see a bad economy right now. Every since mid-2002 tourism is back up and they are flocking our state. The U.S. has taken a while to get over the 9/11 shock and the Clinton inherited recession.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #1459 on: March 14, 2004, 02:14:00 PM »

The Republicans will win Pennsylvania and Louisiana? I don't know... I don't know much but that sounds a little crazy to me. And Kerry wins California but not the election? Madness is rife in this discussion.

Siege40

Siege40,

The Republicans should win Lousiana without too much problem, it went for Bush by a margin of almost 6%. While not out of reach, it's definitely lean GOP. Pennsylvania was very close in 2000 and recent polls confirm that it's a tossup. And Gore won CA without winning the election...in fact CA is almost certain to go Dem, but not at all enough to win them the election.
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StatesRights
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« Reply #1460 on: March 14, 2004, 02:15:42 PM »

I had a "dream" last night that Bush wins in a landslide. Though a few come true, I think that dream was biased lol.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #1461 on: March 14, 2004, 02:20:03 PM »

I do not see a bad economy right now. Every since mid-2002 tourism is back up and they are flocking our state. The U.S. has taken a while to get over the 9/11 shock and the Clinton inherited recession.

It doesn't matter what you 'see' but how things actually are. I don't what you mean by 'Clinton inherited', but the economy was not actually going down when he left office. And 9/11 has little or nothing to do with the problems that the US and the rest of the Western world are expereinceing in economy.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #1462 on: March 14, 2004, 02:20:22 PM »

I had a "dream" last night that Bush wins in a landslide. Though a few come true, I think that dream was biased lol.

Man, you should try and improve your dreams... Wink
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12th Doctor
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« Reply #1463 on: March 14, 2004, 02:22:21 PM »

Ohio will go for Kerry, only if Pennsylvania does.

JOBS

Ohio don't got em

Ohio is far more socially conservative on the whole though.  Ohio even has major cities that are conservative.  ie Culumbus and Cinncinati

Pittsburgh is fairly liberal and Philadelphia is very liberal.  Not to mention the Hienz family connections in Pittsburgh.  It you look at my prediction map you will see that I grudgingly gave my homestate to Kerry.  I think he will win here.  On the other hand, I don't think that Kerry has much of a chance of taking West Virginia unless he puts a Pennsylvainian, Ohioan, West Virginian, Virginian or Kentuckyan on the ticket, which isn't likely.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1464 on: March 14, 2004, 02:23:10 PM »

Gustaf... what you have to remember about Louisiana is that Gore did very badly in the Cajun area (which even Micheal Dukakis did well in).
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Gustaf
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« Reply #1465 on: March 14, 2004, 02:23:38 PM »

Ohio will go for Kerry, only if Pennsylvania does.

JOBS

Ohio don't got em

Ohio is far more socially conservative on the whole though.  Ohio even has major cities that are conservative.  ie Culumbus and Cinncinati

Pittsburgh is fairly liberal and Philadelphia is very liberal.  Not to mention the Hienz family connections in Pittsburgh.  It you look at my prediction map you will see that I grudgingly gave my homestate to Kerry.  I think he will win here.  On the other hand, I don't think that Kerry has much of a chance of taking West Virginia unless he puts a Pennsylvainian, Ohioan, West Virginian, Virginian or Kentuckyan on the ticket, which isn't likely.

W-A-R-N-E-R Wink
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StatesRights
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« Reply #1466 on: March 14, 2004, 02:24:50 PM »
« Edited: March 14, 2004, 02:26:28 PM by StatesRights »

I do not see a bad economy right now. Every since mid-2002 tourism is back up and they are flocking our state. The U.S. has taken a while to get over the 9/11 shock and the Clinton inherited recession.


Actually I think most voters look at how THEY are doing when they go to the polls and not what some economist says. And the Dot.coms blew up after Clinton left. All the scandals that happened under the Clinton admin with big business were revealed. Enron, etc. And 9/11 having no effect on the economy? Hooey.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #1467 on: March 14, 2004, 02:27:10 PM »

I do not see a bad economy right now. Every since mid-2002 tourism is back up and they are flocking our state. The U.S. has taken a while to get over the 9/11 shock and the Clinton inherited recession.

Actually I think most voters look at how THEY are doing when they go to the polls and not what some economist says. And the Dot.coms blew up after Clinton left. All the scandals that happened under the Clinton admin with big business were revealed. Enron, etc. And 9/11 having no effect on the economy? Hooey.


Yeah, well, my point was that even though YOUR personal situation might look good, if the overall economy is doing badly people somewhere will be doing badly.

Tell me how 9/11 caused the recession.
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StatesRights
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« Reply #1468 on: March 14, 2004, 02:31:01 PM »

The thing is are those people who are affected going to vote? And are they a large enough majority to kick Bush out? And after 9/11 a LOT of people were scared to death. A lot of people stayed home instead of coming to Florida to Disney or wherever. That caused these companies to lose a lot of business.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #1469 on: March 14, 2004, 02:32:17 PM »

The thing is are those people who are affected going to vote? And are they a large enough majority to kick Bush out? And after 9/11 a LOT of people were scared to death. A lot of people stayed home instead of coming to Florida to Disney or wherever. That caused these companies to lose a lot of business.

From what I recall there was some worry about that, but it didn't materialize. Consumption remained high, the Christmas sales were record high, I believe.
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Siege40
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« Reply #1470 on: March 14, 2004, 02:32:34 PM »

I had a "dream" last night that Bush wins in a landslide. Though a few come true, I think that dream was biased lol.

That sounds like a nightmare to me...

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StatesRights
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« Reply #1471 on: March 14, 2004, 02:33:35 PM »

I said Bush not Kerry lol. I heard Kerrys running mate is going to be Jane Fonda! Any truth? lol
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Siege40
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« Reply #1472 on: March 14, 2004, 02:41:39 PM »

Doesn't matter to me, I don't like Kerry, Bush or Nader very much. Any of them winning in a landslide is a bad idea. Minority Governments in Canada tend to work best, I don't know the equivalent in the U.S. though.

Siege40
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Gustaf
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« Reply #1473 on: March 14, 2004, 02:50:17 PM »

Doesn't matter to me, I don't like Kerry, Bush or Nader very much. Any of them winning in a landslide is a bad idea. Minority Governments in Canada tend to work best, I don't know the equivalent in the U.S. though.

Siege40

There is no equivalent. Without PP there will never be.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #1474 on: March 14, 2004, 03:02:09 PM »

Miami, it sounds like you almost hope Bush will win. But I agree with you Dean would have been a better candidate. I hope Bush wins but I don't think over the next 8 months Kerry will be much of a challenge. I dont know the job situation in Ohio, but in the Presidents speech the other day things sounded pretty good or recovering at least. If Bush is only a 1 termer he will be the most successful 1 termer in U.S. History. Everything about the U.S. Economy is growing but the job growth is slow. Consumer Confidence is higher now then when Clinton ran for re-election, unemployment is lower then when Clinton ran. Clintons unemployment rate was 6.4% compared to Bushs' 5.5%.

A few things.

-I do not hope Bush will win, rather, I am a pessimist.
-Dean is a weaker candidate in the general election than Kerry.
-Clinton's unEmp rate was very good considering it constantly decreased from the point he took office.  It approached nearly 8% during the Bush41 presidency.
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