2004 User Predictions - Discussion

[??????????]

You could look at it that way or you could look at it like this. Bush says we are in a continuing fight against terrorists and we need to keep the pressure on. If we are attacked he could just say "This is why you need to stick with me, what would Kerry do in this situation?"

[muon2]

I've followed some of the work of Dr. McDonald since he was located in IL until recently. He has studied both redistricting as well as voter turnout. If I recall the trend to lower turnout was due to both immigration and incarceration.

You're right - he does talk about all of that. And he had, by far, the most interesting site on the 2000 (well, 2001-3) redistricting...pretty accurate, too. A pity it doesn't appear to exist any more...

He stopped updating the redistricting scorecard after he moved to GMU. He has some interesting work at elections.gmu.edu/enhancing.htm.

[Gustaf]

You could look at it that way or you could look at it like this. Bush says we are in a continuing fight against terrorists and we need to keep the pressure on. If we are attacked he could just say "This is why you need to stick with me, what would Kerry do in this situation?"

Bush would be all: 'We said from the beginning that this would be a tough fight. But, my fellow Americans, we're not giving in. We will not falter, we will not retreat, we will not fail. This does nothing to our morale and our determination. We stand as firmly now as we have ever done. We will not be intimidated or blackmailed by terrorists. 3 years ago America was attacked. We proved then that we will not be defeated. I intend to continue this fight, etc,etc'

He could easily make it work. I think most Amiercans would buy the message, not the hard-core Dems maybe, but they were never in the equation anyway.

[muon2]

You could look at it that way or you could look at it like this. Bush says we are in a continuing fight against terrorists and we need to keep the pressure on. If we are attacked he could just say "This is why you need to stick with me, what would Kerry do in this situation?"

Bush would be all: 'We said from the beginning that this would be a tough fight. But, my fellow Americans, we're not giving in. We will not falter, we will not retreat, we will not fail. This does nothing to our morale and our determination. We stand as firmly now as we have ever done. We will not be intimidated or blackmailed by terrorists. 3 years ago America was attacked. We proved then that we will not be defeated. I intend to continue this fight, etc,etc'

He could easily make it work. I think most Amiercans would buy the message, not the hard-core Dems maybe, but they were never in the equation anyway.

I think this is Bush's strongest message. It also seems to be the item on which he consistently polls best.

[??????????]

You could look at it that way or you could look at it like this. Bush says we are in a continuing fight against terrorists and we need to keep the pressure on. If we are attacked he could just say "This is why you need to stick with me, what would Kerry do in this situation?"

Bush would be all: 'We said from the beginning that this would be a tough fight. But, my fellow Americans, we're not giving in. We will not falter, we will not retreat, we will not fail. This does nothing to our morale and our determination. We stand as firmly now as we have ever done. We will not be intimidated or blackmailed by terrorists. 3 years ago America was attacked. We proved then that we will not be defeated. I intend to continue this fight, etc,etc'

He could easily make it work. I think most Amiercans would buy the message, not the hard-core Dems maybe, but they were never in the equation anyway.

Their is a lot of truth in his messages to us about Americas resolve and the way the terrorists think.

[josh c]

BUSH WILL WIN IN NOV!! AND ALL THE DEMOCARTS NEED TO STOP CRYING OVER IT!!!

[Gustaf]

BUSH WILL WIN IN NOV!! AND ALL THE DEMOCARTS NEED TO STOP CRYING OVER IT!!!

John is that you?

[Gustaf]

You could look at it that way or you could look at it like this. Bush says we are in a continuing fight against terrorists and we need to keep the pressure on. If we are attacked he could just say "This is why you need to stick with me, what would Kerry do in this situation?"

Bush would be all: 'We said from the beginning that this would be a tough fight. But, my fellow Americans, we're not giving in. We will not falter, we will not retreat, we will not fail. This does nothing to our morale and our determination. We stand as firmly now as we have ever done. We will not be intimidated or blackmailed by terrorists. 3 years ago America was attacked. We proved then that we will not be defeated. I intend to continue this fight, etc,etc'

He could easily make it work. I think most Amiercans would buy the message, not the hard-core Dems maybe, but they were never in the equation anyway.

This is a bit unrelated - but I though the way spain has reacted to the terrorist event with something like 8 to 11 MILLION people protesting/demonstratind (roughly 1/4 to 1/3 of the entire population!) was pure and total class.

Millions of people getting together to collectively give Bin Laden (or whoever?) the  Middle Finger Salute - well done Spain!

This too is a bit off topic, but back in the late 80s when the communists running El-salvador were silly enough to actually hold semi-fair elections I remember seeing a documentary film.  You had hundreds of poor peasants waiting hours in line to vote while the communists were LITERALLY shelling the polling station with mortars - Turn out in that election was over 95%+

Here, despite every effort to make it as easy as possible to vote, we barely get 50% - Half our politicians think this is some kind of case for the FBI and not a war, and way too few seem to be willing to say that there is some sacrifice and price to be paid for our freedom.

Do we really have the stomach to win this war? -
Sometimes I am afraid we do not..

I agree on the Spain thing. That was very impressive indeed. The picures in the papers this morning of it made you pause and think.

And a good point on turnout as well. I remember the long lines ov voters in the Zimbabwe election as well, where the government closed down polling stations in opposition areas.

[Siege40]

Firstly I am not a Democrat, and I am not crying over the Republican numbers. Less than 50% is not something to be sad about. Many polls predict a loss for Bush, some for Kerry. Though your confidence, and capitalization is impressive, it isn't over until the fat lady sings.

Siege40

[??????????]

Protests are nice, but it wont stop terrorists attacks. You stop force with force.

[Gustaf]

Protests are nice, but it wont stop terrorists attacks. You stop force with force.

Nonsense. A psycological war is primarily won by psychology, not force. And is essentially a war of minds and hearts. Look at Vietnam.

[??????????]

Ok, so you think we can beat Osama and his dogs by protesting them and just arresting a few of them? When they come and kill us we need to go to them and kill three times more of them. We need to obliterate the killers hideouts, hate temples, caves, any other place they hide. The problem w/the military today is they want to "pussyfoot" around and not show some muscle. The U.S. showed muscle in Europe and Asia and we subdued them sure enough.

[opebo]

Protests are nice, but it wont stop terrorists attacks. You stop force with force.

Nonsense. A psycological war is primarily won by psychology, not force. And is essentially a war of minds and hearts. Look at Vietnam.

Psychology is greatly influenced by, say, blowing up the enemy's grandmother while she sleeps at night - this was the rational behind firebombing Dresden and Tokyo, or nuking Hiroshima and Nagasaki.  Americans had the right attitude during that war.

[Gustaf]

Ok, so you think we can beat Osama and his dogs by protesting them and just arresting a few of them? When they come and kill us we need to go to them and kill three times more of them. We need to obliterate the killers hideouts, hate temples, caves, any other place they hide. The problem w/the military today is they want to "pussyfoot" around and not show some muscle. The U.S. showed muscle in Europe and Asia and we subdued them sure enough.

I don't know what you're talking about in that last sentence. If you're talking about the World Wars, it's not the same thing. And I don't think you won wars by killing a certain amount of people. That's what you did in Vietnam and guess what? Doesn't work. You need to win the psycholgical war, that's the only way you can lose, in all certainity.

[zachman]

America needs to focus more effort on reshaping the education system in the middle east, and allowing Westernization there. Without that I'd say terrorists and suicide bombers would exist in that region for another 20-50 years.

[dunn]

America needs to focus more effort on reshaping the education system in the middle east, and allowing Westernization there. Without that I'd say terrorists and suicide bombers would exist in that region for another 20-50 years.

true

[Gustaf]

America needs to focus more effort on reshaping the education system in the middle east, and allowing Westernization there. Without that I'd say terrorists and suicide bombers would exist in that region for another 20-50 years.

true

It's not you who'll be doing that 'allowing' of Wstern influences, though.

[??????????]

Change will need to start in the Mosques as well. They have to try to get away from the parts of their Koran that are violent. Anyone who says that Islam is the religion of "peace" are flat out lying to themselves.

[dunn]

America needs to focus more effort on reshaping the education system in the middle east, and allowing Westernization there. Without that I'd say terrorists and suicide bombers would exist in that region for another 20-50 years.

true

It's not you who'll be doing that 'allowing' of Wstern influences, though.

??

[zachman]

We need to care for both Pakistan and India, and control what people think there. That will become the most dangerous place on Earth.

[Gustaf]

Change will need to start in the Mosques as well. They have to try to get away from the parts of their Koran that are violent. Anyone who says that Islam is the religion of "peace" are flat out lying to themselves.

The Koran is about as violent as the Bible, i think. It's all a mtter of interpretation. Look at the inqustion.

[Gustaf]

America needs to focus more effort on reshaping the education system in the middle east, and allowing Westernization there. Without that I'd say terrorists and suicide bombers would exist in that region for another 20-50 years.

true

It's not you who'll be doing that 'allowing' of Wstern influences, though.

??

The governments of those countries are so far preventing Western influences.

[Gustaf]

We need to care for both Pakistan and India, and control what people think there. That will become the most dangerous place on Earth.

Yeah, you can use the mind control machine that I built. It works like a clock...

[dunn]

We need to care for both Pakistan and India, and control what people think there. That will become the most dangerous place on Earth.

Yeah, you can use the mind control machine that I built. It works like a clock...

lol

[zachman]

Interpreting religion as a plan of action is never a good idea. If you can reduce religion to only the 10 commandments, you would have a better world. The idea of religious perfection is saddening to me.