2004 User Predictions - Discussion
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Author Topic: 2004 User Predictions - Discussion  (Read 866069 times)
Gustaf
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« Reply #1275 on: March 07, 2004, 03:11:07 PM »

And if you want to take it another step, the congress actually has more authority and influence then the President does. Gustaf have you ever traveled to the US?

No, but I will after I finish my current level of studies. Why?
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StatesRights
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« Reply #1276 on: March 07, 2004, 03:12:32 PM »

Just curious is all. I recommend touring Florida first. ;-)
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Gustaf
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« Reply #1277 on: March 07, 2004, 03:17:27 PM »

Just curious is all. I recommend touring Florida first. ;-)

Lol...I'll probably go to the Northeast first, since most places one would want to visit are nicely clustered there...but I should of course try and visit all states before I die...with an exception or two... Wink
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StatesRights
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« Reply #1278 on: March 07, 2004, 03:20:28 PM »

The Northeast? Hope you come armed. lol. BTW how do you do the graphic smiles?
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Gustaf
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« Reply #1279 on: March 07, 2004, 03:22:31 PM »

The Northeast? Hope you come armed. lol. BTW how do you do the graphic smiles?

You use combinaitons of :s and )s mostly. If you quote this post you'll see how they're written: Smiley Sad Wink Tongue Cheesy Grin etc
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StatesRights
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« Reply #1280 on: March 07, 2004, 03:26:08 PM »
« Edited: March 07, 2004, 03:27:33 PM by StatesRights »

The Northeast? Hope you come armed. lol. BTW how do you do the graphic smiles?

You use combinaitons of :s and )s mostly. If you quote this post you'll see how they're written: Smiley Sad Wink Tongue Cheesy Grin etc


Wink ok I was putting a - between the ; and the )

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Gustaf
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« Reply #1281 on: March 07, 2004, 03:35:08 PM »

The Northeast? Hope you come armed. lol. BTW how do you do the graphic smiles?

You use combinaitons of :s and )s mostly. If you quote this post you'll see how they're written: Smiley Sad Wink Tongue Cheesy Grin etc


Wink ok I was putting a - between the ; and the )



Ah, OK, now it works. Smiley

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afleitch
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« Reply #1282 on: March 07, 2004, 04:02:32 PM »

I hope to visit the US too. I'll head to NY, then New England before heading into Canada! Though I really should pay those relatives in San Diego a visit...
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Gustaf
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« Reply #1283 on: March 07, 2004, 05:24:57 PM »

Fair analysis Vorlon, but just to play Devil's advocate for a little while:

Oregon poll: Kerry +5%, with Nader at 5%

Wasington poll: Kerry +12%

Wisconsin poll: generic Dem +16%

Iowa poll: Kerry +7%

Minnesota poll: +2%
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Platypus
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« Reply #1284 on: March 07, 2004, 05:41:38 PM »

Iowa, NH and Minnesota will *probably* switch, the rest wll probably stay the same, IMHO. That said, there is a hell of a long time to go...
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Gustaf
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« Reply #1285 on: March 07, 2004, 05:43:58 PM »

Iowa, NH and Minnesota will *probably* switch, the rest wll probably stay the same, IMHO. That said, there is a hell of a long time to go...

It's way too much time left to make accurate predictions of swing states. However, I do think that Florida will be a tossup again, and that both the pacific and the Mid-West will be stronger for Kerry than people think. I also think Kerry has a chance in the South-West, but those states still lean Bush. I think Kerry will have a much harder time in the rust belt than people expect. PA could go for Bush.
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StatesRights
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« Reply #1286 on: March 07, 2004, 05:44:15 PM »

I want to see a 72 or 84 style election this year just for a laugh. Man I'd love that.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #1287 on: March 07, 2004, 05:44:48 PM »

I want to see a 72 or 84 style election this year just for a laugh. Man I'd love that.

Not a chance. Or at least almost not a chance.
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StatesRights
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« Reply #1288 on: March 07, 2004, 05:46:28 PM »

Yeah I doubt that will ever happen again in my lifetime. Politicians nowadays are afraid to speak their mind! Its like the spoof the MAD TV did where the Democrat and Republican were saying the same things and then arguing with each other it.
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StatesRights
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« Reply #1289 on: March 07, 2004, 05:49:26 PM »

Forlon, how do you justify Florida going Democrat? JEB won in a landslide and is still very popular. The Gay Marriage issue is going to put Bush ahead of Kerry IMHO. I think Bush should definately make the Gay Marriage Issue a important part of his campaign. I'd generalize and say most Gays dont vote republican, so he doesnt have anything to lose by being against Gay Marriage.
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StatesRights
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« Reply #1290 on: March 07, 2004, 05:55:56 PM »

The schools are a big big big issue around here. JEBs school policies are liked by many. Kerry might want to steer clear of the education issue unless he supports vouchers.
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dunn
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« Reply #1291 on: March 07, 2004, 06:17:24 PM »

Yeah I doubt that will ever happen again in my lifetime. Politicians nowadays are afraid to speak their mind! Its like the spoof the MAD TV did where the Democrat and Republican were saying the same things and then arguing with each other it.
If the dems nominate Hillary it will. Any rep would beat her. A good rep will make it hurt
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StatesRights
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« Reply #1292 on: March 07, 2004, 07:57:19 PM »

Unlike many I dont really believe polls. Their are 15 million people that live in Florida. Eight Hundred is a small small small number.
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muon2
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« Reply #1293 on: March 07, 2004, 10:52:22 PM »

Vorlon - your map interests me.  Cool to see a map that has a GOP win without FL or OH.  Why do you think the GOP will win Oregon and more particularly Washington, while losing Florida, Ohio, and WV?


My thoughts as well. I see from your further posts some of your thinking. It would be an interesting campaign that can get out the Dem vote in OH yet leave WA suppressed so that it goes to the GOP.

I do think that the upper midwest states have a lot of possiblility to go GOP, despite the current surge for Kerry. The turnout in the cities of the upper midwest are the critical element for Democratic hopes. The rural/suburban vote tends to be more consistent in its turnout for the GOP.
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StatesRights
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« Reply #1294 on: March 07, 2004, 11:16:56 PM »

Thats how it has been as of late. States the contain the very largest cities have gone democrat. New York, PA, NJ, NY, CA, MI, and Ill.
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Beet
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« Reply #1295 on: March 08, 2004, 12:48:55 AM »

Thats how it has been as of late. States the contain the very largest cities have gone democrat. New York, PA, NJ, NY, CA, MI, and Ill.

Texas and Florida have some big-ass cities and they (the Florida ones) were decisive in the last election. Atlanta and Phoenix are also pretty big, not as big as Chicago and New York, but they can match up with Detriot easily.
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StatesRights
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« Reply #1296 on: March 08, 2004, 12:50:32 AM »

I agree large cities are ruling the roost right now. Thank God the framers were wise enough to put a system in that takes some of the edge off that influence (Electoral College).
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Beet
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« Reply #1297 on: March 08, 2004, 01:02:48 AM »

I agree large cities are ruling the roost right now. Thank God the framers were wise enough to put a system in that takes some of the edge off that influence (Electoral College).

Well theres a reason they're important. It's because the majority of the population either lives in one or works in the economic umbrella created by one. Actually I think the electoral college is outdated. One vote in Wyoming wields as much power as three votes in Georgia. Thats disenfranchising Georgia voters.
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StatesRights
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« Reply #1298 on: March 08, 2004, 01:08:04 AM »

IMHO 1 vote in a major city is worth 3 votes compared to Stick Town, North Dakota.
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Beet
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« Reply #1299 on: March 08, 2004, 01:10:07 AM »

IMHO 1 vote in a major city is worth 3 votes compared to Stick Town, North Dakota.

No, look at Dave's EV/population ratios. Its not about city vs country but big state vs small state.
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