2004 User Predictions - Discussion
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 11:34:10 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2004 U.S. Presidential Election
  2004 User Predictions - Discussion
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 45 46 47 48 49 [50] 51 52 53 54 55 ... 99
Author Topic: 2004 User Predictions - Discussion  (Read 866061 times)
Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,770


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1225 on: March 04, 2004, 02:08:06 PM »

Yes, VORLON, excellent information on polls.  Can you share any websites where one can find these polls?


Three sites that list a lot of polls..

From waaaaaaay to the left...

http://prorev.com/amline.htm

From waaaaaaay to the right...

www.realclearpolitics.com

Just the numbers...

www.pollingreport.com

Do you need to pay anything at any of these sites?
Logged
dunn
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,053


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1226 on: March 04, 2004, 02:12:34 PM »

no
Logged
Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,770


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1227 on: March 04, 2004, 02:14:28 PM »


Good then. Smiley
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1228 on: March 04, 2004, 02:48:26 PM »
« Edited: March 05, 2004, 10:54:51 AM by Al »

Yes, VORLON, excellent information on polls.  Can you share any websites where one can find these polls?


Three sites that list a lot of polls..

From waaaaaaay to the left...

http://prorev.com/amline.htm

From waaaaaaay to the right...

www.realclearpolitics.com

Just the numbers...

www.pollingreport.com

Also:
www.dcpoliticalreport.com
Logged
CollectiveInterest
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 511


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1229 on: March 04, 2004, 11:03:39 PM »

Foreign policy? The economy? Culture wars?

I consider Kerry a weak candidate--too many votes on big issues based on political expediency--but what does Bush campaign on.

The Iraq War was based on fraud and exploded the deficit.

To the extent the tax cuts have affected the economy, it's been good for the rich and not helpful for middle class workers.

Bush has mismanaged the economy, although Kerry doesn't have much credibility on fiscal discipline.

Bush can run on his Gay marriage amendment, but I detect a lack of sincerity. Bush only believes in the amendment when it's good politics. This sort of duplicity enrages the TBs.

Bush will suffer from depressed turnout and outright defection by social reactionaries.

The big business people are going to defect because of the deficit and a loopy foreign policy.

With Bush's credibility shot, he will have trouble across the country. I predict he will lose at least one state the GOP has won in the last three presidential elections. Virginia? Indiana? one of the Carolinas?
Logged
opebo
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 47,010


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1230 on: March 05, 2004, 11:39:00 AM »

Foreign policy? The economy? Culture wars?

I consider Kerry a weak candidate--too many votes on big issues based on political expediency--but what does Bush campaign on.

The Iraq War was based on fraud and exploded the deficit.

To the extent the tax cuts have affected the economy, it's been good for the rich and not helpful for middle class workers.

Bush has mismanaged the economy, although Kerry doesn't have much credibility on fiscal discipline.

Bush can run on his Gay marriage amendment, but I detect a lack of sincerity. Bush only believes in the amendment when it's good politics. This sort of duplicity enrages the TBs.

Bush will suffer from depressed turnout and outright defection by social reactionaries.

The big business people are going to defect because of the deficit and a loopy foreign policy.

With Bush's credibility shot, he will have trouble across the country. I predict he will lose at least one state the GOP has won in the last three presidential elections. Virginia? Indiana? one of the Carolinas?

Bush doesn't have to worry about his base - either cultural conservatives or business people - for one big reason:  the alternative is so horrible.  The conservatives see that two or three Supreme Court justices will be appointed by the next President, and the business people see that Kerry will raise their taxes enormously.  For all Republicans, a Bush victory is vital.  
Logged
Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,770


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1231 on: March 05, 2004, 01:10:36 PM »

Foreign policy? The economy? Culture wars?

I consider Kerry a weak candidate--too many votes on big issues based on political expediency--but what does Bush campaign on.

The Iraq War was based on fraud and exploded the deficit.

To the extent the tax cuts have affected the economy, it's been good for the rich and not helpful for middle class workers.

Bush has mismanaged the economy, although Kerry doesn't have much credibility on fiscal discipline.

Bush can run on his Gay marriage amendment, but I detect a lack of sincerity. Bush only believes in the amendment when it's good politics. This sort of duplicity enrages the TBs.

Bush will suffer from depressed turnout and outright defection by social reactionaries.

The big business people are going to defect because of the deficit and a loopy foreign policy.

With Bush's credibility shot, he will have trouble across the country. I predict he will lose at least one state the GOP has won in the last three presidential elections. Virginia? Indiana? one of the Carolinas?

Bush doesn't have to worry about his base - either cultural conservatives or business people - for one big reason:  the alternative is so horrible.  The conservatives see that two or three Supreme Court justices will be appointed by the next President, and the business people see that Kerry will raise their taxes enormously.  For all Republicans, a Bush victory is vital.  

I think vital is a bit of an overstatement. Politicians have relatively little effect, moreso in the US than anywhere else.
Logged
Mort from NewYawk
MortfromNewYawk
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 399


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1232 on: March 05, 2004, 01:29:21 PM »


Bush doesn't have to worry about his base - either cultural conservatives or business people - for one big reason:  the alternative is so horrible.  The conservatives see that two or three Supreme Court justices will be appointed by the next President, and the business people see that Kerry will raise their taxes enormously.  For all Republicans, a Bush victory is vital.  

I think vital is a bit of an overstatement. Politicians have relatively little effect, moreso in the US than anywhere else.
A change from the Bush administration to a Kerry administration would mean a turnaround in foreign policy. The people advising the President in national security, a completely appointed area, would be completely different.
Logged
opebo
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 47,010


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1233 on: March 05, 2004, 01:33:44 PM »

Not so Gustaff - theres a big difference in a 10-20% higher tax rate on the rich, or in having or not having a capital gains tax, or estate tax, or tort reform, or in the Supreme Court.
Logged
Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,770


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1234 on: March 05, 2004, 01:34:10 PM »


Bush doesn't have to worry about his base - either cultural conservatives or business people - for one big reason:  the alternative is so horrible.  The conservatives see that two or three Supreme Court justices will be appointed by the next President, and the business people see that Kerry will raise their taxes enormously.  For all Republicans, a Bush victory is vital.  

I think vital is a bit of an overstatement. Politicians have relatively little effect, moreso in the US than anywhere else.
A change from the Bush administration to a Kerry administration would mean a turnaround in foreign policy. The people advising the President in national security, a completely appointed area, would be completely different.

Ywah, I agree foreign policy might change some, but most politicians are rather pragmatic and end up doing very much the same things anyway. Especially in the US, since you're so big, have a realtively weak goverment and a lot of checks and balances in the system.
Logged
??????????
StatesRights
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,126
Political Matrix
E: 7.61, S: 0.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1235 on: March 06, 2004, 03:06:57 PM »

I have my map ready. This is what I think will happen. Democrats are fooling themselves.
Logged
WalterMitty
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,572


Political Matrix
E: 1.68, S: -2.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1236 on: March 06, 2004, 04:05:07 PM »

alright guys, i entered my map.  let me know what you think.
Logged
© tweed
Miamiu1027
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,563
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1237 on: March 06, 2004, 10:10:52 PM »

alright guys, i entered my map.  let me know what you think.

You just took the 2000 map and switched NH...that's no fun Tongue
Logged
© tweed
Miamiu1027
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,563
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1238 on: March 06, 2004, 10:16:40 PM »

I have my map ready. This is what I think will happen. Democrats are fooling themselves.

I don't see your prediction.
Logged
??????????
StatesRights
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,126
Political Matrix
E: 7.61, S: 0.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1239 on: March 06, 2004, 10:44:51 PM »
« Edited: March 06, 2004, 10:45:28 PM by StatesRights »

Here it is :

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/USERMAPS/pe20041170P1
Logged
© tweed
Miamiu1027
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,563
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1240 on: March 06, 2004, 10:46:57 PM »

Link doesn't work
Logged
??????????
StatesRights
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,126
Political Matrix
E: 7.61, S: 0.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1241 on: March 06, 2004, 10:52:31 PM »

Miami you posted your map on this board earlier how'd you do that?

BTW, Canes stink, go Hokies!
Logged
© tweed
Miamiu1027
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,563
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1242 on: March 06, 2004, 11:22:32 PM »

I see it now, I didn't type in the speace before.

You ask me how to post an image, and then you say that my Hurricanes suck?  Try again Smiley

You do it like this:

put [ img] and [ /img ] tags around the web adress of the image you want to post, minus the spaces.
Logged
CollectiveInterest
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 511


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1243 on: March 06, 2004, 11:31:50 PM »

Bush doesn't have to worry about his base - either cultural conservatives or business people - for one big reason:  the alternative is so horrible.  The conservatives see that two or three Supreme Court justices will be appointed by the next President, and the business people see that Kerry will raise their taxes enormously.  For all Republicans, a Bush victory is vital.  

One, Bush can't win with just his base; he needs swing voters. You know the people that bought his line about being a "united not a divider".

But beyond Bush getting weak with swing voters he's gonna have trouble with his base.

The business people are jittery about deficits. They probably think divided gov't helps with fiscal discipline. But there's a long list of reasons business people might want to let the Dems run the show.

1. Single-payer health care looks like a good way to cut off a number of labor disputes before they happen.
2. In the tension between optimizing the economy between the stock market and employment, it may make sense to shift toward the employment-centered management.
3. WTO and NAFTA is not working for all industries. There are losers as well as winners.
4. Bush's radical foreign policy is probably making it harder for Americans to do business overseas. Int'l business types also might be nervous about "invade first; ask questions later". There's a bunch of foreign policy issues that aren't being handled well.
5. Bush's strong ideological bent to management and surrounding himself with "yes men" looks like bad management.
6. People may have nostalgia for the Clinton years when everybody was better off.

Cultural reactionaries may defect from Bush for the following reasons.
1. Bush's immigration policies are optimized around business and pandering to Latino voters. He has sold out the cultural reactionaries on this issue.
2. On gay marriage Bush mouths the words, but it's easy to get the impression he's just saying it during an election year and has no intent to push the issue after the election.
3. If any cultural reactionaries haven't been converted from worrying about "Zionist Occupied Government" to thinking greater Israel needs to be achieved before the Second Coming, it would be easy to think that Bush is having his strings pulled by the Sharon gov't.
4. There isn't a political issue that really galvanizes anti-Black sentiment. So it's hard to stir this pot.
5. Members of Right Wing organizations, including socially reactionary organizations, are nervous about the implementation of the PATRIOT Act. I even saw the PATRIOT Act covered in a skeptical light in an evangelical Christian mag being passed at street corners.
Logged
muon2
Moderators
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 16,788


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1244 on: March 06, 2004, 11:52:55 PM »

Ok go to the predictions part and type in

States Rights  as the user name. It works for me.
I can't complain about the map. It is almost the same as my update after the Tuesday results. Just switch WI for PA and NH. I figure I'll make adjustments when the VP is announced as it may carry some weight in a state or two.
Logged
??????????
StatesRights
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,126
Political Matrix
E: 7.61, S: 0.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1245 on: March 06, 2004, 11:55:41 PM »
« Edited: March 06, 2004, 11:56:56 PM by StatesRights »

Here we go :



Any chance of California ever going Republican again?
Logged
CollectiveInterest
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 511


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1246 on: March 07, 2004, 12:00:53 AM »

Here we go :

Any chance of California ever going Republican again?

I'll bite. Why do you think Bush is popular? Why will people vote for him?
Logged
??????????
StatesRights
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,126
Political Matrix
E: 7.61, S: 0.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1247 on: March 07, 2004, 12:03:16 AM »
« Edited: March 07, 2004, 12:03:45 AM by StatesRights »

Bringing morality back to the oval office, cutting taxes, and fighting terrorism. Clinton whereas  brought shame to the oval office, hiked taxes (the largest tax hike in US history), and did very very little about terrorism. Most people dont want to change horses during wartime either.
Logged
Kghadial
Rookie
**
Posts: 223


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1248 on: March 07, 2004, 12:22:18 AM »

Bringing morality back to the oval office, cutting taxes, and fighting terrorism. Clinton whereas  brought shame to the oval office, hiked taxes (the largest tax hike in US history), and did very very little about terrorism. Most people dont want to change horses during wartime either.

Clinton actually came close to killing Osama, i think the missile arrived 90 minutes late. Its much Closer than dubya's done. Although we may very likely capture or kill osama this year, but so far dubya hasn't got close.  

Clinton presided over the greatest economy in modern US history. If you look at the lowest employment rate that certain states have ever had you see that many have '99 , '00 or early '01 as the lowest unemployment rates in their modern history. His tax hike allowed a balanced budget.
Dubya is doing much obscene spending, with a half trillion dollar deficit. Its either pay now , or pay twice as much through interest over the years. Thanks to the Vietnam war and Reagan and now Bush roughly 1/6 (estimation on my part I can't remember the actually fraction) of the federal government's expenditures are to paying off the national debt.

So Clinton lied about getting a Blow Job from an relatively unattractive girl, hell most guys would lie about that too. Clinton's lies hurt basically only himself and Hillary. Dubya's lies about Iraq has cost the US its credibility abroad .

A vote for Bush is a vote to increase the National Debt over 9 trillion (1.5 trillion his next term, and .5 trillion for someone to bring it under control), and increase hatred for the US the world over, among other bad things.
Logged
CollectiveInterest
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 511


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1249 on: March 07, 2004, 12:25:07 AM »

Bringing morality back to the oval office, cutting taxes, and fighting terrorism. Clinton whereas  brought shame to the oval office, hiked taxes (the largest tax hike in US history), and did very very little about terrorism. Most people dont want to change horses during wartime either.

If Bush lied to get us into a war we didn't need to fight and cost a bunch of money, would that qualify as being immoral?

What's the virtue of cutting taxes if it's just putting the bill on the credit card? Didn't the GOP used to complain about Dems doing this?

Are there more people taking up arms against the United States today than there were when Bush took office? How many "terrorists" do you reckon have been captured, killed or quit for personal reasons? How many new "terrorists" have joined organizations or taken up arms against the USA freelance?

Why do you think Clinton getting blown in the White House will have any bearing on the 2004 election? Are you really that uptight about sex? Do you feel like you can't ask your wife for what you want sexually?

You can criticize Clinton taxing and spending, but it worked better. Deficits were down; economic growth and jobs were up. By what measure is Bush tax/spending policy a success?

Clinton foreign policy stunk. I didn't vote for him in 96 and didn't vote for Gore in 2000. I'm leaning toward not voting for Kerry either. But if you're gonna beat-up on Clinton on terrorism, what do you think Bush is trying to hide by limiting his and Condie Rice's testimony to the 9/11 commission?

If the policies aren't working--and Bush's policies aren't addressing the big threats--why not change leadership?
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 45 46 47 48 49 [50] 51 52 53 54 55 ... 99  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.063 seconds with 14 queries.