2004 User Predictions - Discussion

[Demrepdan]

Kerry will Lose in NH & Gepthart will lose in Iowa
Dean will win & Be the Nommie & Lose to Bush
49 to 41

Shut up! You always say Dean will win. And you give nothing to back it up. If you're going to say Dean will win, thats fine. But I notice you spread this in all the threads, as if Dean is already nominated. Explain yourself, and I won't be so mean.

[Nym90]

I've heard the poll in SC that had Sharpton in 2nd place, though, had a very high percentage of blacks polled. I didn't hear how high but I know I've heard experts say that they feel that black turnout was overestimated in that poll, and that others had Sharpton significantly lower.

[John]

Let the People Chose who they want in the White House in November 4 2004 i want Bush but if dose win thats fine too

[Demrepdan]

Let the People Chose who they want in the White House in November 4 2004 i want Bush but if dose win thats fine too

You seem very ambivalent. If you want Bush to win, you should definitely care if he loses. However, with ambivalence comes acceptance. You're willing to accept whatever happens, and that’s good.

[DarthKosh]

Kerry will Lose in NH & Gepthart will lose in Iowa
Dean will win & Be the Nommie & Lose to Bush
49 to 41

Shut up! You always say Dean will win. And you give nothing to back it up. If you're going to say Dean will win, thats fine. But I notice you spread this in all the threads, as if Dean is already nominated. Explain yourself, and I won't be so mean.

Dean has the support of major unions and the ultra left.  The will help him win the nom.

[agcatter]

Dean will win the nomination and go down in November something like 54 - 46.  Pretty substantial win considering we are a 50 - 50 nation.

[jravnsbo]

I'd say I've seen analysists predict the black turnout in SC could be as high as 49%

I've heard the poll in SC that had Sharpton in 2nd place, though, had a very high percentage of blacks polled. I didn't hear how high but I know I've heard experts say that they feel that black turnout was overestimated in that poll, and that others had Sharpton significantly lower.

[DarthKosh]

I'd say I've seen analysists predict the black turnout in SC could be as high as 49%

I've heard the poll in SC that had Sharpton in 2nd place, though, had a very high percentage of blacks polled. I didn't hear how high but I know I've heard experts say that they feel that black turnout was overestimated in that poll, and that others had Sharpton significantly lower.

Biggest Dem voting block in SC.

[ElectionAtlas]

There is a new "deluxe" version of the electoral college calculator in the 2004 section.  This includes a dynamic bar graph and a map generator. As I mention in the Weblog entry, the state-polygons are currently quite rough and will be refined in due time.
Enjoy,
Dave

[Demrepdan]

I applaud your Deluxe Version of the Electoral Vote calculator, Dave. But, it’s weird how the states of Michigan, Hawaii, and Alaska are so....”abstract”. lol

[zorkpolitics]

Update Forum Predicitons:
We now have a total of 68 2004 Predicitions and  the average is 270 for Bush and 268 for the Dem.  This shows a *tightening* of the race since Dec 1 when the average prediction was 282 for Bush.  However, the average masks a continuing divergence of predicitons, with a range from Bush 459 to Bush only 137.

[12th Doctor]

I'll throw in a prediction of my own.  This one is for a race between Bush and Dean.  I think that Bush will manage to retain every state that he won in 2000.  In, addition, he will pick up Minnisota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Oregon, Maine and perhapesd Washinton and Michigan.  My feeling is that even with Arnold, there won't be a Republican gain in California.  However, Arnold's presence and stumping for Bush will, I predict cause a rise in Bush's numbers in that, state, at least for a while, causing the Democrats to spend money their and considering thier already streached resources after a hard fought primary, that's something that will become a nessesary evil for them (if you recall, Gore didn't spend a dime in California in 2000).  So Bush will be able to pick up several states that he lost in 2000, even against a Dick Gephart or Joe Liebermann, let alone Howard Dean.

Bush won't carry California, but in the end, it will make a big difference in the election.

[Cairo_East]

IMO, all but 12 states are tossup at this stage.  There is just too much that can happen in 11 months.

[DarthKosh]

IMO, all but 12 states are tossup at this stage.  There is just too much that can happen in 11 months.

Maybe ten are toossups.

[© tweed]

Lets see:

Arizona, Arkansas, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, New Mexico,, Nevada, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania,
Tennessee, Washington, West Virginia, and Wisconsin could go either way in 2004.  27 states.

Bush best case scenario: 512-26 win
Dean best case scenario: 368-170 win

So there.

[jravnsbo]

encouraging to see wide poll with Bush ahead in NH.  Not all defining this early, but with Dean close by state wise and him leading by big numbers there and Dems pounding the airwaves all year, nice to see BUSH still way ahead.

I eventually think NH will come off the tossup board and go for GOP as NH is so anti-tax and won't stomach Dean's tax proposals.

[Saratoga2DM]

Greetings from the Empire State:

Well, things are heating up in this presidential campaign, and Gore endorsing Dean puts him in a very good position.  But its still early and anything could happen.   Some of my political friends think that with this endorsement, Dean may clinch the nomination, however I think they maybe jumping the gun a little.  

Personally, I am excited about the possibility of a Dean - Clark ticket, or vice versa.  If these two are on the same ticket then the Dems have the best shot at winning the White House.  The Dems still need to realize that they need Southern Electoral Votes in order to win the election.    

See you all later.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Dean is reported to be obsessed with the South

[DarthKosh]

Dean is reported to be obsessed with the South

Let him be.  He is not going to win it.

[Beet]

He should really concentrate on holding onto the Gore states. But by reaching out to the South, although he won't win it, he may just make himself moderate enough to win votes in the battleground states in the Midwest and West.

[DarthKosh]

He should really concentrate on holding onto the Gore states. But by reaching out to the South, although he won't win it, he may just make himself moderate enough to win votes in the battleground states in the Midwest and West.

By reaching into the unwinable for Dean he open himself to loose the close Gore states or more.

[jravnsbo]

Bring on DEAn, esp after today!  

That is if the Dems don't dump him now too.

[DarthKosh]

Bring on DEAn, esp after today!  

That is if the Dems don't dump him now too.

They  won't dump him they love him.

[jravnsbo]

Yep but so do we ; just different reasons.

[DarthKosh]

Yep but so do we ; just different reasons.

True.