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  Talk Elections
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  2004 U.S. Presidential Election
  2004 User Predictions - Discussion
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Author Topic: 2004 User Predictions - Discussion  (Read 826800 times)
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StatesRights
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« Reply #2275 on: June 26, 2004, 02:05:32 am »

Im ot going to support John Kerry because I see a banner saying "VOTE KERRY" I would vote for Kerry because he has the best vision for the country.

Well, what exactly is his vision? Has anyone actually figured it out?
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Akno21
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« Reply #2276 on: June 26, 2004, 09:34:34 am »

Im not going to support John Kerry because I see a banner saying "VOTE KERRY" I would vote for Kerry because he has the best vision for the country.

Well, what exactly is his vision? Has anyone actually figured it out?

His vision is for a United States that does not render allies opinions meaningless, that does not distort the reasons why we invade another country and see our brave soldiers dying, that does not give unfair tax cuts to wealthy individuals, that provides health care for all elderly who need it- without lying about the costs, that punishes corporations from taking away American jobs for cheap ones overseas, that esnures women have the right to choose, and attempts to preserve the Environment- not destroy it.
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StatesRights
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« Reply #2277 on: June 26, 2004, 10:22:24 am »

Im not going to support John Kerry because I see a banner saying "VOTE KERRY" I would vote for Kerry because he has the best vision for the country.

Well, what exactly is his vision? Has anyone actually figured it out?

His vision is for a United States that does not render allies opinions meaningless, that does not distort the reasons why we invade another country and see our brave soldiers dying, that does not give unfair tax cuts to wealthy individuals, that provides health care for all elderly who need it- without lying about the costs, that punishes corporations from taking away American jobs for cheap ones overseas, that esnures women have the right to choose, and attempts to preserve the Environment- not destroy it.

So basically a liberal, tax hiking protectionist? Great we need one of those. Roll Eyes Yeah those "tax cuts for the wealthy" again. I didn't benefit at all from them. Roll Eyes
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Akno21
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« Reply #2278 on: June 26, 2004, 08:31:15 pm »

John Kerry would have gone into Iraq and Afghanistan. However, he would not have dismissed the UN, as Bush did. He would also not have gone in without as plan, as Bush has.
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PMMWolverhampton
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« Reply #2279 on: July 03, 2004, 03:23:06 pm »

Hi from Wolverhampton UK

I've just posted a prediction and I hope to keep my predictions updated in the run-up to November

At the moment, based on latest polls  I have Bush in by 76 in the College (34 states to 17) but I am amazed at how sensitive to change in so many states Bush's majority is. It seems to build mostly in rural USA, and any shift to Kerry from Gore's position in 2000 would have dramatic results, particularly in Florida. I only had to knock Bush's score in Rhode Island down by 25 votes to take Florida across to Democrats!

I have used Lotus 123 to build my forecast and I also have an Excel file for predicting the next UK General Election (slightly more complex in that there are 659 "states" up for grabs instead of your 51!) . I'm also trying to build a forecast file for the Australian Federal Election which will probably be on the Saturday after US Election day, and the Mauritian General Election in September - however there are different voting systems at play here and it may take some time.

Anyway, glad to be here.

Happy forecasting!
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StatesRights
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« Reply #2280 on: July 03, 2004, 04:14:37 pm »

Updated for your viewing pleasure/displeasure. Not sure about Washington. Still a What-If IMHO.

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« Reply #2281 on: July 03, 2004, 05:45:51 pm »

80% in Utah???
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StatesRights
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« Reply #2282 on: July 03, 2004, 06:42:18 pm »


Mid to high 70's.
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PMMWolverhampton
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« Reply #2283 on: July 03, 2004, 07:19:52 pm »

I've certainly got Utah as the safest Republican state. If current Green polls hold up it will be more like 60-65% Republican.
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StatesRights
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« Reply #2284 on: July 03, 2004, 07:27:18 pm »

I've certainly got Utah as the safest Republican state. If current Green polls hold up it will be more like 60-65% Republican.

Blue States = Safe states
Red  States = Semi-Safe states

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PMMWolverhampton
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« Reply #2285 on: July 03, 2004, 07:49:29 pm »

Is that Red = Semi-safe Republican?
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StatesRights
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« Reply #2286 on: July 03, 2004, 07:50:40 pm »


Yes, if their was some huge lanslide I believe all those would go to Kerry.
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PMMWolverhampton
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« Reply #2287 on: July 03, 2004, 07:58:43 pm »

The best maps I've seen on this site for Kerry are red on the West coast, dark red in the North east, and some of the other "big states" - but not all, and the interior is still blue for Bush. I have a feeling that Florida will see a lot of activity this year especially in the final weeks as it would be enough to swing it either way if every other state stayed solid for one side or the other. If it came down to a Florida fight though I would favour Bush.
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StatesRights
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« Reply #2288 on: July 03, 2004, 08:04:44 pm »

I think Florida will solidify for Bush by August. The state will be put in second and the dogfight will be the midwest states such as Ohio and PA. I still believe we will see a few shockers this year. I believe WA, OR, and MN will be shockers. NJ perhaps too.
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tweed
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« Reply #2289 on: July 03, 2004, 09:15:07 pm »

Updated for your viewing pleasure/displeasure. Not sure about Washington. Still a What-If IMHO.



Why does Kerry win New Mexico but lose Michigan and Washington?
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Akno21
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« Reply #2290 on: July 03, 2004, 09:28:40 pm »

The best maps I've seen on this site for Kerry are red on the West coast, dark red in the North east, and some of the other "big states" - but not all, and the interior is still blue for Bush. I have a feeling that Florida will see a lot of activity this year especially in the final weeks as it would be enough to swing it either way if every other state stayed solid for one side or the other. If it came down to a Florida fight though I would favour Bush.

The best possible scenerio for Kerry would be:
Kerry:370
Bush:168

Best possible for Bush:
Bush:355
Kerry:183
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ATFFL
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« Reply #2291 on: July 03, 2004, 09:30:11 pm »

Best Bush includes Washington and 1 EV from Maine.
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TommyC1776
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« Reply #2292 on: July 06, 2004, 09:00:48 am »

How do I get a s/n and a password for my own prediction page?
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True Federalist
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« Reply #2293 on: July 06, 2004, 07:46:33 pm »

It's weird how such a predictable event as Edwards getting the VP nomination has made such a difference in the collective opinion here in under a day.  Ohio has swung back to being seen as a Kerry tossup and the Median projection has gone from 280-258 Kerry-Bush to 284-254 Kerry-Bush.  Granted, I changed my own prediction, but that was because my prediction was based upon a generic VP.  A lot of people had said they were basing theirs on Edwards as VP, so they shouldn't have had any reason to change their prediction today.
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ThePrezMex
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« Reply #2294 on: July 07, 2004, 02:34:04 pm »

The best maps I've seen on this site for Kerry are red on the West coast, dark red in the North east, and some of the other "big states" - but not all, and the interior is still blue for Bush. I have a feeling that Florida will see a lot of activity this year especially in the final weeks as it would be enough to swing it either way if every other state stayed solid for one side or the other. If it came down to a Florida fight though I would favour Bush.

The best possible scenerio for Kerry would be:
Kerry:370
Bush:168

Best possible for Bush:
Bush:355
Kerry:183

The best scenario for Kerry includes also NC and Louisiana.
The best scenario for Bush includes also WA, CA and Maine.
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PMMWolverhampton
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« Reply #2295 on: July 07, 2004, 05:48:47 pm »

I've just posted another forecast - Kerry by 44 - on the back of the Princeton MSNBC overnight poll 6 July which gives Kerry 49 Bush 41. I would have expected some kind of Kerry boost from a Southerner (and previous favourite for the D nomination) joining the camp as Veep, though not quite that big, and this may well even out.

In any case the big question mark for me rests over Florida, so with the EC votes at stake their Kerry by 44 could just as easily be Bush by 10.

I would now expect a bit of evening out and it may be a couple of weeks before we really see the effect of the Edwards factor.

For now though my forecast is very much moving back towards Akno 21's best Kerry outcome - red west coast and I have good deal of grey down going from Minnesota - Wisconsin down the Mississippi spine.
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PMMWolverhampton
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« Reply #2296 on: July 07, 2004, 05:58:22 pm »

I just want to make one statement about my assumptions before we go any further. I respect any opinion put to me in disagreement with my forecasts as regards individual states or regional polling. But my central assumption is simple:

You're a martyr to the national swing, mate.

I certainly think that's true in the UK. How true it is in the US I would be interested to find out - I've never done this before as scientifically as I am doing now - and I will be quite happy to compare my final forecast with the actual outcome.

This is a learning experience for me - I'm aiming to use what I learn here for our General Election (probably next year).
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TeePee4Prez
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« Reply #2297 on: July 10, 2004, 12:36:13 am »

I would even add NJ, DE, and CT to Bush's best.

NC, SC, LA, and TN to Kerry best
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AuH2O
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« Reply #2298 on: July 10, 2004, 12:14:17 pm »

Bush technically could win 48 states. 'Best' and 'Worst' isn't a very valuable discussion.

Though Kerry's "best" is not nearly Bush's...
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minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
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« Reply #2299 on: July 15, 2004, 09:31:19 am »

Best Bush includes Washington and 1 EV from Maine.
best Bush includes all Maine, as well as Washington. Similarly, best Kerry inculdes Louisiana. Neither is at all probable, though.
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