2004 User Predictions - Discussion

[Filuwaúrdjan]

MN will be close, like it usually is, although I think it leans Democrat as there isn't going to be a strong Greenie standing this year.
The GOP can only win if turnout is low in strongly Democrat areas.
I actually think that the GOP have a better chance at winning in Wisconsin than MN.

[NHPolitico]

Bush at 59% in Gallup Poll as 1/11...

Bush is in a good position at this time. With the capture of Saddam Hussein, and improvements in the economy, his job approval rating -- currently at 59% -- and his electoral strength against possible Democratic candidates have improved.

Although the results presented here are for "likely" voters, the poll shows little difference between the preferences of likely voters (representing about half the adult population) and the preferences of the larger population of "registered" voters.

Bush's advantage over Dean among registered voters has been as low as 3 percentage points (last September), and as high as 23 points (in mid-December).

Shortly after Clark announced his candidacy, he enjoyed a 3-point margin among registered voters over Bush (in a Sept. 19-21 poll), but in mid-December, Bush's advantage was 16 points.

While some political observers, as well as Democratic candidates, have suggested that Dean is less electable than other Democrats, the poll provides no corroborating evidence. At this point of the campaign, each of the major candidates appears about as strong as the other.

Americans like Bush's qualities, poll says
Yet Democrats said to have edge on many domestic issues

(CNN) --Two-thirds of Americans think President Bush has the right personal qualities for the presidency, yet nearly half or more think the Democratic Party would do a better job on major domestic issues, according to a new poll.

A CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll released Tuesday interviewed 1,003 adult Americans last weekend on Bush and national issues ranging from the environment to security.

The poll indicated that Bush's favorable standing with most Americans on his personal qualities is a main reason for his job approval rating of 59 percent in the most recent CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll and similar high marks in other polls.

The poll also showed that 55 percent of those interviewed agree with Bush on the issues that matter to them.

"With previous polls showing that voters are paying more attention to personal qualities than issues right now, it looks as if Bush's strength is who he is, more than what he stands for," CNN pollster Keating Holland said.

Split on issues
The poll showed that though most Americans give the edge to the Democratic Party on domestic issues, the Republican Party retains an advantage on security issues and world affairs, and Bush gets credit for that.

At least 50 percent or more of those interviewed said the Democratic Party would do a better job on such issues as the environment, health care and education.

Nearly 50 percent preferred the Democrats on issues such as the budget deficit, the economy and taxes.

But on issues such as terrorism, the Iraq war, world affairs and gun policy, those interviewed gave the nod to the Republicans.

On other questions, less than half of those interviewed said they thought a terrorist attack is likely in the United States in the next few weeks.

But that is not a personal concern for many Americans -- only about one in nine of those interviewed said they thought terrorism was likely in their community.

Three-quarters said they think Bush has addressed the fundamental security risks the country faces.

The poll had a margin of error of plus-or-minus 3 percentage points.

[© tweed]

I don't vote on if a candidate is personally likeable [I voted for gore ], but rather if they can get the job done.  I don't think GWB is personally likeable, but I can see how some people would say he is.

[jravnsbo]

either one would be a huge win for GOP>

MN will be close, like it usually is, although I think it leans Democrat as there isn't going to be a strong Greenie standing this year.
The GOP can only win if turnout is low in strongly Democrat areas.
I actually think that the GOP have a better chance at winning in Wisconsin than MN.

[jravnsbo]

Besides politics I always have the "4 year test" can I stand to have this person speak to me for 4 years from the Oval office.  Gore failed that test with me.  

By far not the only factor for me, but sit back , close your eyes and visualize each candidate addressingthe nation and see if they fit the job.

[Gustaf]

MN will be close, like it usually is, although I think it leans Democrat as there isn't going to be a strong Greenie standing this year.
The GOP can only win if turnout is low in strongly Democrat areas.
I actually think that the GOP have a better chance at winning in Wisconsin than MN.

So do I.

[Gustaf]

Besides politics I always have the "4 year test" can I stand to have this person speak to me for 4 years from the Oval office.  Gore failed that test with me.  

By far not the only factor for me, but sit back , close your eyes and visualize each candidate addressingthe nation and see if they fit the job.

That's why I'm against Bush...

[jravnsbo]

But Bush is doing the job and shows he can, he has already checked this block.

[Gustaf]

But Bush is doing the job and shows he can, he has already checked this block.

Hm, I am still not convinced. He is allright as a texas governor or an oil tycoon, but I wouldn't really want him to be my president. Which he isn't, so I guess I shouldn't complain too much...

[© tweed]

But Bush is doing the job and shows he can, he has already checked this block.

Hm, I am still not convinced. He is allright as a texas governor or an oil tycoon, but I wouldn't really want him to be my president. Which he isn't, so I guess I shouldn't complain too much...

Haha...
The only Dem is would have trouble voting for is Kerry.

[jravnsbo]

I think i got your point, but you are missing a few words

But Bush is doing the job and shows he can, he has already checked this block.

Hm, I am still not convinced. He is allright as a texas governor or an oil tycoon, but I wouldn't really want him to be my president. Which he isn't, so I guess I shouldn't complain too much...

Haha...
The only Dem is would have trouble voting for is Kerry.

[© tweed]

I think i got your point, but you are missing a few words

But Bush is doing the job and shows he can, he has already checked this block.

Hm, I am still not convinced. He is allright as a texas governor or an oil tycoon, but I wouldn't really want him to be my president. Which he isn't, so I guess I shouldn't complain too much...

Haha...
The only Dem is would have trouble voting for is Kerry.

I am missing words?  What does that mean?

[jravnsbo]

Reread your own sentence, to get what i am saying.




The only Dem is would have trouble voting for is Kerry

[© tweed]

Oh, I wrote 'is' instead of 'I'.

[Gustaf]

Reread your own sentence, to get what i am saying.




The only Dem is would have trouble voting for is Kerry

Look who's talking! If there is anyone on this forum (except for trolls of course) who does that it's you! ()No offense, JR)

[jravnsbo]

Hey no problem.  Call me on it.  Mine is b/c I type fast usually.  I really didn't know what he meant for a bit.

Reread your own sentence, to get what i am saying.




The only Dem is would have trouble voting for is Kerry

Look who's talking! If there is anyone on this forum (except for trolls of course) who does that it's you! ()No offense, JR)

[jravnsbo]

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/


good site with lots of political info.

[Huckleberry Finn]

I just added my prediction map!

This is Dean scenario with successful campaign and situation where Bush has troubles with economy and Iraq. Dean would get most of Nader's votes = pretty solid victory in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Oregon and Maine and lean victory in New Hampshire and New Mexico. Result in Ohio and West Virginia would be very tight. In Iowa and Nevada Dean's victory would be slightly bigger. Connecticut could be tighter than in 2000, because there’s no Lieberman's effect.

There is several stupid mistake in spelling in my comment like conneticut and new hapshire. And I can’t fix it, cos I have forgot my password. DAMN!

[Huckleberry Finn]

I added another one. It is Clark-Edwards scenario in situation where Bush has BIG troubles with economy and Iraq. You can find it as user Huckleberry Finn2.

[Gustaf]

I just added my prediction map!

This is Dean scenario with successful campaign and situation where Bush has troubles with economy and Iraq. Dean would get most of Nader's votes = pretty solid victory in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Oregon and Maine and lean victory in New Hampshire and New Mexico. Result in Ohio and West Virginia would be very tight. In Iowa and Nevada Dean's victory would be slightly bigger. Connecticut could be tighter than in 2000, because there’s no Lieberman's effect.

There is several stupid mistake in spelling in my comment like conneticut and new hapshire. And I can’t fix it, cos I have forgot my password. DAMN!

It sounds like you're being quite optimstic...I will have a look at it and tell you what I think.

[Huckleberry Finn]

I have also added Dean scenario of situation where he has too liberal and poor campaign and Bush has good economy and no problem with Iraq.

[Gustaf]

I have also added Dean scenario of situation where he has too liberal and poor campaign and Bush has good economy and no problem with Iraq.

Yeah, I spotted that, so I take back my initial assesment. Just so you know, Dave Leip put a maximum of three predictions per user, then they get deleted, I think. Btw, Dave, I forgot the password to one of my predictions, the one with my name and a 4. So you can remove that if you wish, it forced me to put another one in, even though I didn't intend to.

[NHPolitico]

But Bush is doing the job and shows he can, he has already checked this block.

Hm, I am still not convinced. He is allright as a texas governor or an oil tycoon, but I wouldn't really want him to be my president. Which he isn't, so I guess I shouldn't complain too much...

Haha...
The only Dem is would have trouble voting for is Kerry.

Why Kerry? He's similar to Edwards.

[NHPolitico]

I thought of putting this in the Economic Numbers section, but didn't think it was good enough of a fit.

Drivers of SUVs and other gas guzzlers may want to keep their vehicles parked over the summer.

That's because some experts are saying that gas could -- gulp -- hit the $3-a-gallon mark.

"It is not only possible, it is probable," said Fred Rozell, director of gasoline pricing for Oil Price Information Service, which tracks and reports on the oil industry. "In the summer, we consume more gasoline than we produce.

"[This year] we won't have that extra supply to help us."

Winter weather, bolstering demand for heating fuels, already has cut U.S. crude stocks to the lowest level since 1975.

And with simple economics -- in particular the supply and demand rule -- consumers can expect the price of gas to reach record levels. Those prices would especially be possible in Chicago, where government regulations require gas stations to supply more costly reformulated gasoline to reduce smog.

"This could be the year that gasoline prices start to change the way people behave," Rozell said. "They may drive less or look to buy more fuel-efficient vehicles and get rid of their SUVs."

That $3 threshold shouldn't come as a big surprise to pump watchers. Over the last few days, prices at the pump have done more than just trickle upward --they have soared. Prices have surged more than 7 cents a gallon in the last three weeks.

Several factors are being blamed for the uptick, including rising crude oil prices, a weaker U.S. dollar, colder weather that drove up demand for home heating oil, and two U.S. gasoline reformulations, said analyst Trilby Lundberg.

Earlier this week, the all-grades average retail price of gasoline was 8 cents higher than it was at this time last year. The national weighted average price of gasoline, including taxes, at self-serve pumps was about $1.55 for regular, $1.65 for midgrade, and $1.74 for premium.

But those numbers are only expected to rise.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the forecast for prices to remain stable through the summer banked on crude oil being about $30 a barrel. In the last week, the price of crude oil has flirted in the mid-$30s and could rise further.

Retail analysts say gasoline costs rise about 2.5 cents per gallon for every $1-a-barrel increase in the price of crude oil. And combine that with near record low inventories -- some of the lowest since the long-line days of 1975 -- and drivers may want to learn that CTA map.

But not everyone is ready to buy into the higher prices.

"There is no way that anyone can predict the price of oil next week, let alone next summer," said Geoff Sundstrom, a spokesman for the American Automobile Association. "There is no need to start scaring the consumer with what prices might be."

Sundstrom said the reasons for the short-term increase have been the cold weather and the low inventory, both of which he says will be over in the next few months.

[Gustaf]

I thought of putting this in the Economic Numbers section, but didn't think it was good enough of a fit.

Drivers of SUVs and other gas guzzlers may want to keep their vehicles parked over the summer.

That's because some experts are saying that gas could -- gulp -- hit the $3-a-gallon mark.

"It is not only possible, it is probable," said Fred Rozell, director of gasoline pricing for Oil Price Information Service, which tracks and reports on the oil industry. "In the summer, we consume more gasoline than we produce.

"[This year] we won't have that extra supply to help us."

Winter weather, bolstering demand for heating fuels, already has cut U.S. crude stocks to the lowest level since 1975.

And with simple economics -- in particular the supply and demand rule -- consumers can expect the price of gas to reach record levels. Those prices would especially be possible in Chicago, where government regulations require gas stations to supply more costly reformulated gasoline to reduce smog.

"This could be the year that gasoline prices start to change the way people behave," Rozell said. "They may drive less or look to buy more fuel-efficient vehicles and get rid of their SUVs."

That $3 threshold shouldn't come as a big surprise to pump watchers. Over the last few days, prices at the pump have done more than just trickle upward --they have soared. Prices have surged more than 7 cents a gallon in the last three weeks.

Several factors are being blamed for the uptick, including rising crude oil prices, a weaker U.S. dollar, colder weather that drove up demand for home heating oil, and two U.S. gasoline reformulations, said analyst Trilby Lundberg.

Earlier this week, the all-grades average retail price of gasoline was 8 cents higher than it was at this time last year. The national weighted average price of gasoline, including taxes, at self-serve pumps was about $1.55 for regular, $1.65 for midgrade, and $1.74 for premium.

But those numbers are only expected to rise.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the forecast for prices to remain stable through the summer banked on crude oil being about $30 a barrel. In the last week, the price of crude oil has flirted in the mid-$30s and could rise further.

Retail analysts say gasoline costs rise about 2.5 cents per gallon for every $1-a-barrel increase in the price of crude oil. And combine that with near record low inventories -- some of the lowest since the long-line days of 1975 -- and drivers may want to learn that CTA map.

But not everyone is ready to buy into the higher prices.

"There is no way that anyone can predict the price of oil next week, let alone next summer," said Geoff Sundstrom, a spokesman for the American Automobile Association. "There is no need to start scaring the consumer with what prices might be."

Sundstrom said the reasons for the short-term increase have been the cold weather and the low inventory, both of which he says will be over in the next few months.

What's a gallon in litres, please, so I know what we're talking about. In Sweden it's 10 SEK, that is roughly 1.33$ per litre, but it's mainly due to a 200% tax on gas.