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  2004 User Predictions - Discussion
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Author Topic: 2004 User Predictions - Discussion  (Read 828097 times)
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #800 on: January 23, 2004, 05:45:11 pm »

In america, PE stand for physical education.  what does it stand for in Sweden?
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Gustaf
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« Reply #801 on: January 23, 2004, 05:47:22 pm »

In america, PE stand for physical education.  what does it stand for in Sweden?

It isn't used in Sweden, it's called "Idrott&Hälsa", which would mean Health and, well athletic activities, or whatever. I used the term PE, b/c from my stay in the UK it seemed to be the English equivalent of the Swedish subject.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #802 on: January 23, 2004, 10:27:00 pm »

In america, PE stand for physical education.  what does it stand for in Sweden?

It isn't used in Sweden, it's called "Idrott&Hälsa", which would mean Health and, well athletic activities, or whatever. I used the term PE, b/c from my stay in the UK it seemed to be the English equivalent of the Swedish subject.
Okay.
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John
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« Reply #803 on: January 24, 2004, 08:50:08 pm »

Dean will lose to kerry in NH Tuesday Night & he will drop out becuse he was not a good guy after all
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #804 on: January 24, 2004, 08:54:09 pm »

Dean will lose to kerry in NH Tuesday Night & he will drop out becuse he was not a good guy after all
Going on your second screen name now Johnny boy?
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Fmr. Gov. NickG
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« Reply #805 on: January 25, 2004, 06:00:04 pm »

Hi all,

I'm new to this forum, but I'm a political obsessive and the discussions here are really cool.  

I just posted my prediction map....maybe a little optimistic for the Democrats, but I think pretty reasonable.  It assumes the Dems nominate someone with at least some Southern appeal.

I have five Bush states switching:
Ohio
Louisiana
Arkansas
Arizona
Nevada

Louisiana seems to be the Southern state most amendable to voting for a Democrat, even during the Bush-era.  (Gov '03, Sen '02, LA-03 in '02)

Maybe it's a few years to0 early to shift Arizona and Nevada to the Dem column, but I'm pretty confidence they'll shift eventually given their growth and demographic changes.

I see Bush holding on to West Virginia and Florida (unless Bob Graham is VP).  The GOP showed real strength in FL in '02, and Bush is trouncing every Dem in all polls there (same with NH, come to think).  And I think the declining influence of labor in WV has turned it into a "Southern state" for good.

Nick G
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #806 on: January 25, 2004, 06:21:04 pm »

You could have asked before using my Edwards sign, Nick Smiley

Welcome to the forum, it's nice to see another Dem for Edwards in 2004.
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Michael Z
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« Reply #807 on: January 25, 2004, 07:05:54 pm »

Hi Nick and welcome to the forum. Smiley

Ohio, Arkansas and Nevada are realistic targets in my view. A Kerry/Edwards or Edwards/Graham ticket should be able to carry these states. Arizona and Louisiana I'm not so sure about, however.

I would also predict a switch in WV and perhaps NH (albeit very narrowly).
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Beet
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« Reply #808 on: January 25, 2004, 08:43:57 pm »

Woohoo, we now have 4 active people from Maryland! One more and we can hold elections for senator...

MZ, I think you're a little too optimistic about a ticket headed by Kerry. A Bush-Kerry matchup would be kind of like a Bush-Dukakis matchup, I fear. Kerry has the same problem of looking like he is equivocating about the war, plus his voting record. I think he could do better than Dean but that's not saying much; I don't think he could win Ohio, Arkansas or Nevada.

Right now Edwards, Clark, or Lieberman are the best possible choices to head the ticket. Unfortunately they're polling at 9, 13, and 9 percent, respectively, in New Hampshire. If Kerry wins in New Hampshire he'll have virtually unstoppable momentum going into the Feb. 3 states, most of which are not as conservative as South Carolina. Even if its a narrow win, or Dean narrowly beats Kerry, the other states are going to see it as a choice between Dean and Kerry and go for Kerry.
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John
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« Reply #809 on: January 25, 2004, 11:05:22 pm »

Welcome
I Like what you say but i will vote for bush but i will until the People chose who they want
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Saratoga2DM
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« Reply #810 on: January 26, 2004, 12:58:52 am »

Hey all:

I heard that Dean's numbers have stabilized in New Hampshire and also showing signs of a turnaround within the forseeable future.  But we will have to wait and see.  

Also NickG, welcome to the forum.  

Later.


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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #811 on: January 26, 2004, 08:09:12 am »

Hey all:

I heard that Dean's numbers have stabilized in New Hampshire and also showing signs of a turnaround within the forseeable future.  But we will have to wait and see.  

Also NickG, welcome to the forum.  

Later.
Last poll has him 18% down.
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jravnsbo
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« Reply #812 on: January 26, 2004, 12:02:10 pm »

latest poll has Dean within 3-4%, zogby one.  

Lots of polls out there though.

I think Dean willa t least be 2d.  Kerry likely to win yet, and a battle for 3-5, with Clark falling fast.

welcome Nick.

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mossy
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« Reply #813 on: January 26, 2004, 12:15:39 pm »

Hi all,

I'm new to this forum, but I'm a political obsessive and the discussions here are really cool.  

I just posted my prediction map....maybe a little optimistic for the Democrats, but I think pretty reasonable.  It assumes the Dems nominate someone with at least some Southern appeal.

I have five Bush states switching:
Ohio
Louisiana
Arkansas
Arizona
Nevada

Louisiana seems to be the Southern state most amendable to voting for a Democrat, even during the Bush-era.  (Gov '03, Sen '02, LA-03 in '02)

Maybe it's a few years to0 early to shift Arizona and Nevada to the Dem column, but I'm pretty confidence they'll shift eventually given their growth and demographic changes.

I see Bush holding on to West Virginia and Florida (unless Bob Graham is VP).  The GOP showed real strength in FL in '02, and Bush is trouncing every Dem in all polls there (same with NH, come to think).  And I think the declining influence of labor in WV has turned it into a "Southern state" for good.

Nick G


Very interesting analysis, Nick.  I'm going to look at yours more carefully when I have some time.   Floridia is a tremendous question mark to me, in view of not ever having a proper count to refer to.  I don't know which way to call it--but I know the black vote should turn out in record numbers there....I'm new, too, and enjoy talking with others on both sides of the aisle who are not trolls.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #814 on: January 26, 2004, 04:50:00 pm »

UPDATED Kerry v. Bush:

Prediction Map:




Bush 298 to Kerry 240

Confidence Map:



Bush 211, Kerry 113, Toss-up 214.

Is this guy just a Taxachusetts liberal or can he win?
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jravnsbo
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« Reply #815 on: January 26, 2004, 05:05:31 pm »

he's just a taxachussetts liberal.  

1971 Kerry advocates cutting military spending while Vietnam War is still going on.

-1980's Kerry advocated a weaker CIA and voted in
1997 to cut intelligence spending yet criticizes the lack of
intelligence prior to September 11, 1991.

-1980's Kerry opposed the death penalty for terrorist who kill Americans but then criticizes Dean in Iowa for questioning whether Sadaam should receive the death
penalty; "What were you thinking?"

 -1990's Kerry favored government
grants to religion-based charities in oppostion to seperation of church and state.

-1991 Kerry voted against First Gulf War where
there was international agreement, yet favors 2003 Iraq War where  there was no international coalition.

-1994 Kerry opposes raising the minimum wage.

-1996 Kerry votes against Farm Bill.

-1996 Kerry votes against Balance Budget Bill.

-1996 Kerry votes against Small Business
Regulatory Reform Bill

-1996 Kerry votes against Federal Grasslands
Management Bill

-1997 Kerry voted to raise Medicare premiums.

-2003 Kerry votes for Patriot Act

A long record of votes. I even heard he is the liberal senator of Mass. witha 93% liberal voting record to only 88% for Kennedy. Plus I know the people will love seeing those 2 on stage together all the time.  Kennedy and Kerry- what a combination.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #816 on: January 26, 2004, 05:12:18 pm »

According to the National Journal, Kerry is to the left of ted Kennedy economically, equal with him socially, and to the right of him in foreign affairs.  Kerry does have a paper trail that Bush could use against him.
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jravnsbo
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« Reply #817 on: January 26, 2004, 05:15:09 pm »

maybe you posted as I did, but yes He is more liberal than Ted and I ppointed out a few examples above.  Laughed when I heard it said Ted Kennedy was the conservative senator of Massachussetts.  never thought I would hear conservative and ted kennedy int he same sentence.

According to the National Journal, Kerry is to the left of ted Kennedy economically, equal with him socially, and to the right of him in foreign affairs.  Kerry does have a paper trail that Bush could use against him.
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jravnsbo
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« Reply #818 on: January 26, 2004, 05:17:01 pm »

Now this story fromt he WSJ today could sum up what a lot of vets thinka bout Kerry.  My father could have written this article.  he is a vetnam vet that was awarded the bronze star and he says kerry is a disgrace for turning his back on the men who were still over there fighting like my father.  Plus vets hate anythign to do with Jane "I am a traitor" Fonda.  My father would shut the TV off when she came on when I was growing up.

Conduct Unbecoming
Kerry doesn't deserve Vietnam vets' support.

BY STEPHEN SHERMAN
Monday, January 26, 2004 12:01 a.m. EST

A turning point may have been reached in the Iowa caucuses when Special Forces Lt. James Rassmann came forward to thank John Kerry for saving his life in Vietnam. Although Mr. Rassmann, like most of my veteran friends, is a Republican, he said that he'd vote for Mr. Kerry. I don't know if the incident influenced the caucus results. But I took special interest in the story because Jim served in my unit.

Service in Vietnam is an important credential to me. Many felt that such service was beneath them, and removed themselves from the manpower pool. That Mr. Kerry served at all is a reason for a bond with fellow veterans; that his service earned him a Bronze Star for Valor ("for personal bravery") and a Silver Star ("for gallantry") is even more compelling. Unfortunately, Mr. Kerry came home to Massachusetts, the one state George McGovern carried in 1972. He joined the Vietnam Veterans Against the War and emceed the Winter Soldier Investigation (both financed by Jane Fonda). Many veterans believe these protests led to more American deaths, and to the enslavement of the people on whose behalf the protests were ostensibly being undertaken. But being a take-charge kind of guy, Mr. Kerry became a leader in the VVAW and even testified before Congress on the findings of the Investigation, which he accepted at face value.

In his book "Stolen Valor," B.G. Burkett points out that Mr. Kerry liberally used phony veterans to testify to atrocities they could not possibly have committed. Mr. Kerry later threw what he represented as his awards at the Capitol in protest. But as the war diminished as a political issue, he left the VVAW, which was a bit too radical for his political future, and was ultimately elected to the Senate. After his awards were seen framed on his office wall, he claimed to have thrown away someone else's medals--so now he can reclaim his gallantry in Vietnam.

Mr. Kerry hasn't given me any reason to trust his judgment. As co-chairman of the Senate investigating committee, he quashed a revealing inquiry into the POW/MIA issue, and he supports trade initiatives with the Socialist Republic of Vietnam while blocking any legislation requiring Hanoi to adhere to basic human rights. I'm not surprised that there are veterans who support a VVAW activist, if only because there are so few fellow veterans in politics. Ideally, there'd be many more. If you are going to vote on military appropriations, it would be nice if you didn't disrespect the soldiers. Congress hasn't had the courage to declare war in more than 60 years, despite numerous instances in which we have sent our military in harm's way. Of all the "lessons of Vietnam," surely one is that America needs a leader capable of demonstrating in himself, and encouraging in others, the resolve to finish what they have collectively started.





But the bond between veterans has to be tempered in light of the individual's record. Just as Mr. Kerry threw away medals only to claim them back again, Sen. Kerry voted to take action against Iraq, but claims to take that vote back by voting against funding the result. So I can understand my former comrade-in-arms hugging the man who saved his life, but not the act of choosing him for president out of gratitude. And I would hate to see anyone giving Mr. Kerry a sympathy vote for president just because being a Vietnam veteran is "back in style."
Mr. Sherman was a first lieutenant with the U.S. Army Fifth Special Forces Group (Airborne) in Vietnam, 1967-68.

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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #819 on: January 26, 2004, 05:18:20 pm »

he was against the Vietnam War, so many Vets don't like that.  He would still take a good chunk of the veteran vote in the general.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #820 on: January 26, 2004, 05:24:21 pm »

I still think that serving in a war is a brave thing to do. Showing opposition to it afterwards doesn't look bad to me. That's a Lee-thing in my opinion.
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mossy
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« Reply #821 on: January 26, 2004, 05:31:58 pm »

It was a very, very hard war to support as time went on.   Especially after the release of the Pentagon Papers.  I don't think anyone was untouched by it.   It was not as clear cut as WWII.    I think we'll get a chance to see the troops react again.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #822 on: January 26, 2004, 05:38:25 pm »

It was a very, very hard war to support as time went on.   Especially after the release of the Pentagon Papers.  I don't think anyone was untouched by it.   It was not as clear cut as WWII.    I think we'll get a chance to see the troops react again.

It was very far from being as clear cut as WWII.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #823 on: January 26, 2004, 06:42:07 pm »

It was a very, very hard war to support as time went on.   Especially after the release of the Pentagon Papers.  I don't think anyone was untouched by it.   It was not as clear cut as WWII.    I think we'll get a chance to see the troops react again.

It was very far from being as clear cut as WWII.
Opposition to the Vietnam war was greater than any other war in American history.  The sad thing is, we went knid of half-assed into Vietnam.  I wouldn't have supported it from the outset, but put your will into it if you are going to fight a war.  For example, I would have voted no in authorizing force in Iraq but yes on the 87 Billion for Iraq.
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12th Doctor
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« Reply #824 on: January 26, 2004, 07:22:00 pm »

he was against the Vietnam War, so many Vets don't like that.  He would still take a good chunk of the veteran vote in the general.

Yeah, but it would be the same chunk that the Dems always get so it wouldn't make much difference.
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