2004 User Predictions - Discussion

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Note: by south of state, I don't mean just the Coal District as the 2nd has a few counties high up in the Alleghanies that also produce a fair amount of Coal.
Nothing on Boone, Mingo or Logan scale though.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The issue of coal miners is relevent as you have shown some appalling ignorence about their voting patterns.

But what has the opinion of the NY Times on strip mining got to do with voting?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Actually very few miners switched to the GOP.
What killed Gore was the fact that a lot stayed at home, add that to the Steel Workers switching to Bush (but they will probably "come home" this year), and a higher turnout amoung Republicans (37% of the WV electorate) and that was that.

I was familier with the WVGS' website, but the only party affected by Mountain Top Mining is the Mountain Party.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Mining communities are almost always very poor, very left wing (on economics) and are also union dominated.
And don't like capitalism at all...

In the U.K, the Labour Party dominates the Coalfields, while in France the Valenciennes Coalfield is a traditional stronghold of the PCF.

And in the U.S the Appalachian Coalfield is very easy to spot on a National County Map.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Actually it's at least 3000.
200-400 on current reserves.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

No, I'm going to read the transcripts... but I would like the following question to be answered:

"What measures do you intend to take to preserve Coal Mining communities?"

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Thanks

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Sorry... my estimates for reserves was for the U.K in the '80's... it stuck in my head for some reason...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

And I'm the one that chose "realpolitik" as my user name...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Depends on what you mean by cynicism

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I've looked into the 2000 result in WV and have found something very interesting:

Although turnout amoung registered voters rose slightly, the turnout in the heavily Democrat south fell sharply.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Bush won WV by 40,000 votes (rounded to the nearest thousand), so a swing of 20,000 results in the Democrats winning WV.
Bush's support will have fallen a lot in the Northern Panhandle (the area around Wheeling), lets say that there is a swing of 3000 votes (a conservative estimate) towards Kerry.
As he is a Catholic make that 5000.

Lets assume that Bush loses 5000 votes across the rest of the state (another conservative estimate and assumes that Bush loses no votes around Charleston, which is unlikely).
That leaves Bush with a lead of 10,000.

I think that the Rahall machine can get an extra 10,000 votes in the Coal Distrist if they work hard at it (and Mollohan should be able to wring out at least another 1000 in the 1st district.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Turnout is appalling for young people all over America, so how strong the GOP is amoung younger voters is usually exaggerated.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The day the Coal District is more Republican than the rest of WV is the day that Hell freezes over

WV is the Dems most likely pickup this year (although I was being a tad optimistic with the Catholic thing).

You lot'll probably pick up New Mexico easily though...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Edwards is a moderate on social issues, while being the most left wing candidate on economic issues.
This is often called "Populism".

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I wouldn't worry about "NASCAR dads"... the last time a lot of them voted would have been for Wallace in '68...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Who said I was mocking anyone???

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I would trust a drunken farmer over a Zogby poll...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I would trust a drunken farmer over a Zogby poll...

That's who does his polling.

That wouldn't suprise me at all...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Deep South isn't heavily GOP, the Democrats just need our voters to actually vote...genuine white-black coalition...populism...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

True

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Defining the South by the Mason-Dixon line and the Ohio river:

R-beyond reasonable doubt

Oklahoma
Texas

R-balance of probabilities

Mississippi
Alabama
Georgia
South Carolina
North Carolina*
Kentucky
Florida

No Clear Favourite

Virginia
Tennessee
Arkansas

D-balance of probabilities

West Virginia
Delaware
Louisiana

D-beyond reasonable doubt

District of Columbia
Maryland

[Filuwaúrdjan]

No... because of possible 3rd party run by Roy Moore.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

All the states that the Constitution Party is on the ballot for I'd guess...
I still think that Dubya will win Alabama and Mississippi but I'm not certain.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Run Roy Run!