2004 User Predictions - Discussion (user search)
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Author Topic: 2004 User Predictions - Discussion  (Read 866121 times)
Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,770


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

« Reply #75 on: January 17, 2004, 07:13:41 AM »

My prediction (Democrats in Upper Case, Republicans in lower):

(Revised from one last year which gave Kentucky to the Democrats :rolleyes:

alabama
alaska
arizona
arkansas
CALIFORNIA
colorado
CONNECTICUT
DELAWARE
DC
florida
georgia
HAWAII
idaho
ILLINOIS
indiana
IOWA
kansas
kentucky
louisiana
MAINE
MARYLAND
MASSACHUSETTS
MICHIGAN
MINNESOTA
mississippi
missouri
montana
nebraska
NEVADA
NEW HAMPSHIRE
NEW JERSEY
NEW MEXICO
NEW YORK
north carolina
north dakota
ohio
oklahoma
OREGON
PENNSYLVANIA
RHODE ISLAND
south carolina
south dakota
TENNESSEE
texas
utah
VERMONT
virginia
WASHINGTON
WEST VIRGINIA
WISCONSIN
wyoming

Post a prediction map instead, much easier to follow. Smiley

And make 18 posts, then you can register for our fantasy elections and help elect Nym90 as POTAF (President of the Atlas Forum).
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Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,770


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

« Reply #76 on: January 17, 2004, 10:16:02 AM »

AFPresident sounds better.  But Hugh, we need your vote!

I had Gore losing Maine, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Washington, Oregon, and New Mexico, all of which he won.  Don't try to make optimistic predictions, you'll dissapoint yourself.  
Another way to solve the problem is to make best-case scenario predictions and worst-case scenario predictions.

Yes, but POTUS doesn't sound good either,anyway.

Btw, I think it's time to get to work Mr. Chairman, the Reps are ahead in registered voters.
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Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,770


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

« Reply #77 on: January 17, 2004, 10:22:31 AM »

How about I name you the leader of the AFDNC voter registration department?

OK, I feel honoured! Smiley

I will start right away!
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Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,770


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

« Reply #78 on: January 17, 2004, 04:23:22 PM »

I've already registered to vote Wink

Map on the way Smiley

Yeah, sorry, I realized that, I keep mixing people up, what with all those red avatars... Sad

I will check out your map when you put it up.
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Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,770


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

« Reply #79 on: January 17, 2004, 04:27:38 PM »

How do you put images up?

I'll try it the [IMG] way...

[IMGhttp://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/PE2004/CAMPAIGN/genusmap.php?year=2004&AL=2;9;5&AK=2;3;5&AZ=2;10;5&AR=2;6;5&CA=1;55;5&CO=2;9;5&CT=1;7;5&DE=1;3;5&DC=1;3;5&FL=2;27;5&GA=2;15;5&HI=1;4;5&ID=2;4;5&IL=1;21;5&IN=2;11;5&IA=1;7;5&KS=2;6;5&KY=2;8;5&LA=2;9;5&ME=1;4;5&MD=1;10;5&MA=1;12;5&MI=1;17;5&MN=1;10;5&MS=2;6;5&MO=2;11;5&MT=2;3;5&NE=2;5;5&NV=1;5;5&NH=1;4;5&NJ=1;15;5&NM=1;5;5&NY=1;31;5&NC=2;15;5&ND=2;3;5&OH=2;20;5&OK=2;7;5&OR=1;7;5&PA=1;21;5&RI=1;4;5&SC=2;8;5&SD=2;3;5&TN=1;11;5&TX=2;34;5&UT=2;5;5&VT=1;3;5&VA=2;13;5&WA=1;11;5&WV=1;5;5&WI=1;10;5&WY=2;3;5/IMG]

Not this again...you could just make one on the prediction page of the site, post here that you've done that, and then I can check it out.
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Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,770


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

« Reply #80 on: January 17, 2004, 04:30:52 PM »


Thatä's a pretty good idea.
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Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,770


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

« Reply #81 on: January 17, 2004, 04:36:34 PM »


Not that again... Smiley
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Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,770


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

« Reply #82 on: January 17, 2004, 04:38:52 PM »


I dunno...you posted that just b/c you're used to it, right? Smiley
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Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,770


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

« Reply #83 on: January 17, 2004, 04:44:35 PM »

When I try to post, it still looks like this.

Yeah, it looks weird in posting mode, but not afterwards. Strange.
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Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,770


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

« Reply #84 on: January 17, 2004, 04:51:17 PM »

Aaaaaaaargh! It still is annoying! I looked at your map, but I don't like to have an in-depth discussion on this weird thread. It looked pretty optimistic, and I will complain about the tossups not being equally distributed.
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Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,770


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

« Reply #85 on: January 17, 2004, 04:55:59 PM »


Whatever you say...
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Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,770


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

« Reply #86 on: January 17, 2004, 04:57:48 PM »


HA! We did it! Smiley
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Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,770


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

« Reply #87 on: January 17, 2004, 05:14:50 PM »

California should come around to the Dems eventually. Let's keep in mind that most undecideds break against the incumbent, so Bush will most likely do worse in some states than current polls predict. But I agree that Clark no longer looks like a strong candidate.
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Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,770


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

« Reply #88 on: January 17, 2004, 05:32:33 PM »

My prediction was Dean/Edwards

New England solidly Democrat (although Maine and NH will be close)

Tennessee will be very close, i think it'll go for Democrats b/c of Edwards
Nevada will go Democrat...just because Tongue

NM will be a tossup, i'm going with the incumbent (Democrat)

Ohio will be close, just in favour of Bush

WV...I think it'll be seeing alot of campaigning from Dean; it's a democrat state that has lost its way recently. He'll bring it back to the fold.

Optomistic, yes; but absolutely possible.

(BTW, of the tossups, 20 evs go to Republicans (Ohio), and 21 to Democrats (TN, NM, WV) so it's not an unfair distribution



You also give the Dems other tossups: NH, Maine and Delaware. Wait a minute! DELAWARE? Smiley

Anyway, you marked those as tossups, so it's a 32-20 to the Dems.
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Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,770


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

« Reply #89 on: January 17, 2004, 05:37:16 PM »

I posted my Edwards prediction here somewhere, I have Edwards losing by 14 ev's.

Yeah, I remember that one.
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Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,770


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

« Reply #90 on: January 17, 2004, 05:47:31 PM »

I posted my Edwards prediction here somewhere, I have Edwards losing by 14 ev's.

Yeah, I remember that one.
If only you remembered the location!!

Sorry, I don't. Why don't you start by going through the 47 pages of this thread, before moving on to other threads... Smiley
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Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,770


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

« Reply #91 on: January 17, 2004, 06:01:33 PM »

How many pages do you think this thread will have by November 2004?  250?

At least.
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Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,770


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

« Reply #92 on: January 17, 2004, 06:51:37 PM »

How many pages do you think this thread will have by November 2004?  250?

At least.
And how many replies?  3000?

I think posting at this topic will heat up during and after the primaries.

Every forum has a very long thread, and this is ours.

Yes, definitely. I have seen some statistics from a Swedish group mail-thingy I was on last year, and during the last month before election day the number of messages went sky-high.
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Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,770


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

« Reply #93 on: January 17, 2004, 07:47:01 PM »

Yes, definitely. I have seen some statistics from a Swedish group mail-thingy I was on last year, and during the last month before election day the number of messages went sky-high.
It's gonna be a fun ride.

How do you think replies on this thread will trend after the election?

Considering the fact that we're plitical junkies? It will remain high after the election to discuss the aftermath, the recounts, etc. and then it will go down around the time of New Year. Then as new elections approaches it will start going up again. But with no major US elections in 2005 there will be less activity that year.
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Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,770


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

« Reply #94 on: January 17, 2004, 08:00:26 PM »

Leip may lock this thread a few months after the 2004 election.
Ah, I forgot about that. Yes, I kind of hope he does. Wink
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Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,770


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

« Reply #95 on: January 18, 2004, 07:24:36 AM »



Bush v. Kerry

Bush gets 387 over Kerry's 151.  Just my prediction.

That is really rough on the guy. I think he wouldn't do that bad. Why would he lose CAlifornia but win Michigan?
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Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,770


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

« Reply #96 on: January 18, 2004, 06:07:15 PM »

Looking at that map it's hard to beliveve Kerry had 189...lol.

You mean b/c the Red area looks so small? Smiley
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Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,770


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

« Reply #97 on: January 19, 2004, 02:58:07 PM »

I don't know all that much about Washington state either, but I do know the only liberal area is the greater Seattle area, as you go further west in the less populted areas it becomes more conservative.

That's the case everywhere isn't it?
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Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,770


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

« Reply #98 on: January 20, 2004, 12:52:16 AM »


Aniston? Come on. Go with Katie Holmes or Jessica Alba or somesuch. Aniston?

Don't start this up again... Wink
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Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,770


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

« Reply #99 on: January 20, 2004, 12:51:38 PM »

I just heard ESPN Radio/ESPN-TV's PTI host Tony Kornheiser say when a candidate has a speech like Dean's it's time for every responsible adult to say, "check please." He said (jokingly), maybe Dean said "How-weeeee" at the end of his geography lesson. Regardless, he thought it was off the deep end.

Don Imus made great fun of it, too.

I have to see this speech I keep hearing so much about! Was it really that bad? What did Dean do exactly?
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