2004 User Predictions - Discussion

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Colin Powell would never win, especially not in the south as someone else pointed out...

Lets not forget the fact that race is still a huge factor, especially in primaries when more extreme voters turn out.

1/10 voters still believe Interracial marriage should be banned...  (http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2004-03-21-gay-marriage_x.htm)

A higher ratio in the south where most Republican primary delegates come from.  Colin Powell would have no chance of winning a Republican nomination...  and he is too conservative to win a Democratic nomination.

The country is clearly not ready for a black president because there are still too many biggots out there who don't even think interracial marriage is ok...  

I don't want to burst your bubble by informing you that the black community (which votes heavily Democratic) is against interracial marriage more than whites...so I won't.  Please pardon the interruption.

That is very true, I know a LOT of blacks who are against  interracial marriage.

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They would definately oppose their family members marrying outside their race. I dont think they really care if its legal or not. It's just not going to happen for them.

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According to the Tampa Tribune these are the tossups for 2004 :




Ignore the shadings thats from my prediction map. They say the red are solid democrat and the blue are solid republican.

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It's so early on its very likely to change. If you notice the polls are swinging back to Bush. Kerry is being torn up and I don't think hes ready for the big leagues. The best is yet to come for him.

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This is my updated map :



This is my confidence map :

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Prediction :

Republican : 336

Democrat : 202

Confidence:

Republican : 201

Democrat :173

Tossup : 164

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You may call me a dreamer..lol

Miami though I would like that to be the final result I just dont see it.

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Can a Republican ever win Hawaii?

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Kerry is not a "generic democrat". Kerry is a far to the left liberal Democrat, and even old Blonde Killer has shot him down on more then a few occassions.

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Clinton won two times being considered a "moderate". Whens the last time a person who spent any time in office as a senator became President?

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He was a Senator. But he was out a lot of that tenure for illness and did not vote very much on bills. Dukakis Jr. has a long record. Democrats wanted a Clinton and have ended up with a Dukakis.

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Edwards, though possibly a excellent candidate in the future, is a political creampuff when put up against Bush right now. Joe Liberman or Dean would have been a better choice.

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Super flip flop Mi and Wi to Republican and put Minn as Democrat and thats where I about stand right now.

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I think in geneology I think if you are born on a military base you are considered to still be from the state your family was from but I'm not sure I'll have to check.

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I see striking similarities to the 1916 election and this current election. Any thoughts?

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Sorry I mean 1864.

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I would have voted for McClellan.

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I heard someone say, "If Bush is only a one term president, he will be the most successful one term president in U.S. History."

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You must be logged in to read this quote.

John Adams - What did he do great during his presidency?
Martive Van Buren - Who? lol
John Tyler - ?
James K Polk - Mexican war, maybe
Lincoln - 2 termer
McKinley - killed
Coolidge- Great Depression?
Kennedy- killed

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So, maybe something like this, if Kerry's LUCKY?!



I think you're out of touch.  You automatically (and falsely) assume everyone will adopt your view of Kerry (even though your view is probably right).

I could see that heppening, just as HI to Kerry.

I would be drunk for the next week if Bush won by that much. lol

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If their is a God in heaven he will! lol

"Keep hope alive"

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If thats the case I am going to start checking the cost of living in England. And I am going to start singing "God Save the Queen".

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Tell him to go lick more toads.

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Lunar, that is Super Soultys map. I think he was discussing what would happen if Guiliani ran in '08. He's been on this Guiliani kick lately.

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I have a question about your map. How the heck do you give Colorado and LA to Kerry? The Solid south will remain solid this year. Their's very very little chance they will want a Yankee. Colorado is fairly conservative and Bush has been very very kind to outdoorsman.