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  2004 User Predictions - Discussion
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Author Topic: 2004 User Predictions - Discussion  (Read 830356 times)
DarthKosh
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« Reply #575 on: January 11, 2004, 09:33:53 pm »

which states are "losable"?  NM?  WI?  I don't think any state is losable for the Dems.

I was referring to tossups: NM, WI, MN, IA and OR. PA would be in there as well, but that's one of the target states.
I do think Dean would win Pennsylvania.

Why do you think Dean is Pennsylvania's kind of Democrat?  For the record, Rendell likes Lieberman if I recall.

Please excuse me while I roll on the floor in laughter.  Dean could never win PA.

That's my belief, too.

Me three.  Dean doesn't have the appeal to pull in the conservative Dems in the T.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #576 on: January 12, 2004, 09:33:26 am »

Capito only won 60% because Humphries(an apalling candidate) kept some good candidates out of the primary with his money so he could have a rematch.
Stupid bastard.
With a good candidate Capito might have gone down in 2002, and it might be too late now. Typical...
BTW the GOP run a sacrificial lamb against Rahall in the Coal District
I don't see why they bothered but they did...
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #577 on: January 12, 2004, 11:22:33 am »

Capito only won 60% because Humphries(an apalling candidate) kept some good candidates out of the primary with his money so he could have a rematch.
Stupid bastard.
With a good candidate Capito might have gone down in 2002, and it might be too late now. Typical...
BTW the GOP run a sacrificial lamb against Rahall in the Coal District
I don't see why they bothered but they did...

The GOP didn't run one in 2000, though.  The seat is a bellwether for congressional elections and will be at least until redistricting.   No trend has been established, but one could be established.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #578 on: January 12, 2004, 12:27:22 pm »

The GOP might be able to make WV less of a one party state, I won't deny that, but that's about it.
I think that you lot have a good chance at making FL a GOP fortress though...
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DarthKosh
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« Reply #579 on: January 12, 2004, 01:29:15 pm »

The GOP might be able to make WV less of a one party state, I won't deny that, but that's about it.
I think that you lot have a good chance at making FL a GOP fortress though...

The Dems should spend alot of money on WV-2.
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jravnsbo
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« Reply #580 on: January 12, 2004, 02:31:45 pm »

Didn't the Democrat WV gov say he wasn't running again b/c of an affair or soemthing?


The GOP might be able to make WV less of a one party state, I won't deny that, but that's about it.
I think that you lot have a good chance at making FL a GOP fortress though...
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Gustaf
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« Reply #581 on: January 12, 2004, 02:36:44 pm »

Btw, shouldn't tossups always be equally distributed between the parties? I notice a lot of people mark states as tossups on their confidence maps, and then hand all or most of them to one party in the prediction map. That isn't really intelectually honest, is it?  

If you have a repeat of 2002 where the tide turns the weekend before Election Day toward one party (or turns long before then), that would tip all the states in one direction.

Well, but then they would cease to be tossups, wouldn't they?
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #582 on: January 12, 2004, 03:30:10 pm »

Btw, shouldn't tossups always be equally distributed between the parties? I notice a lot of people mark states as tossups on their confidence maps, and then hand all or most of them to one party in the prediction map. That isn't really intelectually honest, is it?  

If you have a repeat of 2002 where the tide turns the weekend before Election Day toward one party (or turns long before then), that would tip all the states in one direction.

Well, but then they would cease to be tossups, wouldn't they?

No, tossups in my mind just mean states that could go either way. If the election is close, then they probably go both ways. If the election is a landslide, they probably all fall in one direction toward the winner.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #583 on: January 12, 2004, 03:33:27 pm »

Didn't the Democrat WV gov say he wasn't running again b/c of an affair or soemthing?

Officially yes.
Actually Wise isn't running for re-election because as a result of his affair he was going to suffer the humilation of losing in the Democratic Primary...
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #584 on: January 12, 2004, 03:39:03 pm »

The Dems should spend alot of money on WV-2.

Agreed
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jravnsbo
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« Reply #585 on: January 12, 2004, 03:39:41 pm »

GOP could make hay out of that, running against corruption and bad policies in the state government for gov.  Just like Dems will be able to do in CT in 2006 and GOP did in KY this year with Gov Patton's sex scandal.

If people want that change it can result in more GOP votes across the board.  Just something to look for.


Didn't the Democrat WV gov say he wasn't running again b/c of an affair or soemthing?

Officially yes.
Actually Wise isn't running for re-election because as a result of his affair he was going to suffer the humilation of losing in the Democratic Primary...
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #586 on: January 12, 2004, 03:49:06 pm »

Problem with that is that WV occasionally elects a GOP governer to act as a semi-balance to the all powerfull WVDP, Wise beat unpopular incumbent GOP governer Cecil Underwood in 2000 for example, but they[WVGOP Governers] are usually incompetent and voters don't want a new one for a least 10, preferably 15, years.

WV can be a weird state sometimes...

BTW WVSOS, Machin, is running and is going to be very hard to beat.
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tweed
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« Reply #587 on: January 12, 2004, 04:21:10 pm »

I do think Dean would win Pennsylvania.  He would get the urban liberal turnout in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, and would get enough votes in the "T" because of his stance on gun control to win the state.
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DarthKosh
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« Reply #588 on: January 12, 2004, 10:59:40 pm »

I do think Dean would win Pennsylvania.  He would get the urban liberal turnout in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, and would get enough votes in the "T" because of his stance on gun control to win the state.

Civil unions.
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12th Doctor
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« Reply #589 on: January 12, 2004, 11:19:28 pm »

I do think Dean would win Pennsylvania.  He would get the urban liberal turnout in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, and would get enough votes in the "T" because of his stance on gun control to win the state.

Dean could never win in Pittsburgh.  He would get some union support, but he is so liberal on social issues that they would ride him out of town on a rail.  You need to win at least two of the three regions in PA to win the state and Dean could never pull it.  He would win around Philadelphia, but he would get trounched in the T and Pittsburgh.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #590 on: January 13, 2004, 08:02:33 am »

I do think Dean would win Pennsylvania.  He would get the urban liberal turnout in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, and would get enough votes in the "T" because of his stance on gun control to win the state.

Civil unions.
Guns.
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #591 on: January 13, 2004, 11:09:19 am »

This topic is to re-start the discussions around the user predictions located at the 2004 Prediction page.  I have created another topic to discuss the technical issues with the feature.

ALBANY, N.Y. (AP)-- Howard Dean has moved out to at least a 2-1 lead in New York over his chief rivals for the Democratic presidential nomination, while President Bush's popularity has rebounded in the heavily Democratic state, a statewide poll reported Tuesday.

The poll, from Marist College's Institute for Public Opinion, had the former Vermont governor favored by 26% of Democratic voters surveyed with Sen. Joseph Lieberman of neighboring Connecticut at 12% and retired Gen. Wesley Clark backed by 10% of the Democrats. None of the other contenders cracked double digits in the new poll. Twenty-six percent of Democrats said they were undecided.

An October poll from Marist had Dean leading Lieberman, 18% to 16%, with Clark at 14% among New York Democrats.

But the new poll also found that Republican Bush appears to be a viable option for New York voters in a state where Democrats have a 5-3 enrollment advantage over Republicans. Among all registered New York voters sampled, 34% said they would definitely vote for the incumbent president in this year's election while 36% said they would definitely vote against him. Thirty percent were undecided.

A September poll from the Poughkeepsie, N.Y.-based institute had found 32% of voters planned to vote for Bush and 48% planned to vote against him.

The improvement for Bush's standing in New York was also evident in his job approval rating -- 52% in the new poll and 44% in the September poll.

Republican Gov. George Pataki has boasted that Bush will carry New York in this year's election, a feat not accomplished by a Republican in a presidential race since Ronald Reagan did it in 1980 and 1984.

The telephone poll of 617 registered voters was conducted Jan. 6-7 and has a sampling error margin of plus or minus 4 percentage points. The Democratic results, based on a sampling of 544 party members, has a sampling error margin of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.
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12th Doctor
supersoulty
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« Reply #592 on: January 13, 2004, 11:14:42 am »

This topic is to re-start the discussions around the user predictions located at the 2004 Prediction page.  I have created another topic to discuss the technical issues with the feature.

ALBANY, N.Y. (AP)-- Howard Dean has moved out to at least a 2-1 lead in New York over his chief rivals for the Democratic presidential nomination, while President Bush's popularity has rebounded in the heavily Democratic state, a statewide poll reported Tuesday.

The poll, from Marist College's Institute for Public Opinion, had the former Vermont governor favored by 26% of Democratic voters surveyed with Sen. Joseph Lieberman of neighboring Connecticut at 12% and retired Gen. Wesley Clark backed by 10% of the Democrats. None of the other contenders cracked double digits in the new poll. Twenty-six percent of Democrats said they were undecided.

An October poll from Marist had Dean leading Lieberman, 18% to 16%, with Clark at 14% among New York Democrats.

But the new poll also found that Republican Bush appears to be a viable option for New York voters in a state where Democrats have a 5-3 enrollment advantage over Republicans. Among all registered New York voters sampled, 34% said they would definitely vote for the incumbent president in this year's election while 36% said they would definitely vote against him. Thirty percent were undecided.

A September poll from the Poughkeepsie, N.Y.-based institute had found 32% of voters planned to vote for Bush and 48% planned to vote against him.

The improvement for Bush's standing in New York was also evident in his job approval rating -- 52% in the new poll and 44% in the September poll.

Republican Gov. George Pataki has boasted that Bush will carry New York in this year's election, a feat not accomplished by a Republican in a presidential race since Ronald Reagan did it in 1980 and 1984.

The telephone poll of 617 registered voters was conducted Jan. 6-7 and has a sampling error margin of plus or minus 4 percentage points. The Democratic results, based on a sampling of 544 party members, has a sampling error margin of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.


Like I said, I have a feeling that if Dean is the nominee, Bush could win New York.  Granted, this is just short on an absolutly best case senario, but it could happen.
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #593 on: January 13, 2004, 11:18:21 am »

Bush at 59% in Gallup Poll as 1/11...

Bush is in a good position at this time. With the capture of Saddam Hussein, and improvements in the economy, his job approval rating -- currently at 59% -- and his electoral strength against possible Democratic candidates have improved.

Although the results presented here are for "likely" voters, the poll shows little difference between the preferences of likely voters (representing about half the adult population) and the preferences of the larger population of "registered" voters.

Bush's advantage over Dean among registered voters has been as low as 3 percentage points (last September), and as high as 23 points (in mid-December).

Shortly after Clark announced his candidacy, he enjoyed a 3-point margin among registered voters over Bush (in a Sept. 19-21 poll), but in mid-December, Bush's advantage was 16 points.

While some political observers, as well as Democratic candidates, have suggested that Dean is less electable than other Democrats, the poll provides no corroborating evidence. At this point of the campaign, each of the major candidates appears about as strong as the other.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #594 on: January 13, 2004, 12:21:13 pm »

Bush couldn't win New York...he would only beat sharpton here by 8-10% and might lose to Kucinich, so dean would win it by over 15% easily.
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12th Doctor
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« Reply #595 on: January 13, 2004, 12:34:50 pm »

Bush couldn't win New York...he would only beat sharpton here by 8-10% and might lose to Kucinich, so dean would win it by over 15% easily.

We shall see.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #596 on: January 13, 2004, 12:44:48 pm »

Btw, shouldn't tossups always be equally distributed between the parties? I notice a lot of people mark states as tossups on their confidence maps, and then hand all or most of them to one party in the prediction map. That isn't really intelectually honest, is it?  

If you have a repeat of 2002 where the tide turns the weekend before Election Day toward one party (or turns long before then), that would tip all the states in one direction.

Well, but then they would cease to be tossups, wouldn't they?

No, tossups in my mind just mean states that could go either way. If the election is close, then they probably go both ways. If the election is a landslide, they probably all fall in one direction toward the winner.

A tossup to me is a 50-50 state, 50-50 states should statistically be distributed equally. If there is a landslide driving them towards one side, they cease to be tossups, perhaps not in time for us to realise that or change our predictions, but cease to be tossups all the same.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #597 on: January 13, 2004, 01:39:56 pm »

Bush couldn't win New York...he would only beat sharpton here by 8-10% and might lose to Kucinich, so dean would win it by over 15% easily.

We shall see.
Bush lost NY 60-35% in 2000.  A 25% swing to bush is unrealistic.
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DarthKosh
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« Reply #598 on: January 13, 2004, 01:40:39 pm »

Bush couldn't win New York...he would only beat sharpton here by 8-10% and might lose to Kucinich, so dean would win it by over 15% easily.

We shall see.
Bush lost NY 60-35% in 2000.  A 25% swing to bush is unrealistic.
12.5%
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #599 on: January 13, 2004, 01:43:02 pm »

Bush couldn't win New York...he would only beat sharpton here by 8-10% and might lose to Kucinich, so dean would win it by over 15% easily.

We shall see.
Bush lost NY 60-35% in 2000.  A 25% swing to bush is unrealistic.
12.5%
You know what I mean.
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