2004 User Predictions - Discussion

[DarthKosh]

The key to stopping Dean is on Feb. 3rd with Clark on OK, AZ, and SC.

If they can not stop dean on that date then the Dems are in trouble.

Well, that's their last chance.

Then when Dean is nominated they then can watch the party run off a cliff.

Say what you may, yay!

It's true all the smart Dems know it.

[DarthKosh]

I don't believe Edwards could carry NC, let alone any of the rest of the South.

Research 2000 poll of North Carolinians, 1/04:

Approve of presidential bid by Edwards: 55 % (vs. 39% last year)-- due to increase in number of Democrats in NC who support his bid.

Bush vs. Edwards: 53-40

Edwards still gets beat into the ground.

[DarthKosh]

agcat,

agcat, read Al Franken's book. That's an eye-popper.

This is kind of like 1972. No liberals knew of anyone who was supporting Nixon and were shocked election night.

I support Franken. The more books he sells, the further isolated Dems become from the mainstream voter.  It happened to conservatives in 1996.

That is called an echo chamber.

[DarthKosh]

which states are "losable"?  NM?  WI?  I don't think any state is losable for the Dems.

I was referring to tossups: NM, WI, MN, IA and OR. PA would be in there as well, but that's one of the target states.

I do think Dean would win Pennsylvania.

Why do you think Dean is Pennsylvania's kind of Democrat?  For the record, Rendell likes Lieberman if I recall.

Please excuse me while I roll on the floor in laughter.  Dean could never win PA.

That's my belief, too.

Me three.  Dean doesn't have the appeal to pull in the conservative Dems in the T.

[DarthKosh]

The GOP might be able to make WV less of a one party state, I won't deny that, but that's about it.
I think that you lot have a good chance at making FL a GOP fortress though...

The Dems should spend alot of money on WV-2.

[DarthKosh]

I do think Dean would win Pennsylvania.  He would get the urban liberal turnout in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, and would get enough votes in the "T" because of his stance on gun control to win the state.

Civil unions.

[DarthKosh]

Bush couldn't win New York...he would only beat sharpton here by 8-10% and might lose to Kucinich, so dean would win it by over 15% easily.

We shall see.

Bush lost NY 60-35% in 2000.  A 25% swing to bush is unrealistic.

12.5%

[DarthKosh]

Bush couldn't win New York...he would only beat sharpton here by 8-10% and might lose to Kucinich, so dean would win it by over 15% easily.

We shall see.

Bush lost NY 60-35% in 2000.  A 25% swing to bush is unrealistic.

12.5%

You know what I mean.

Or the can be a strong third party on the left that could make that number less.  

[DarthKosh]

Bush couldn't win New York...he would only beat sharpton here by 8-10% and might lose to Kucinich, so dean would win it by over 15% easily.

We shall see.

Bush lost NY 60-35% in 2000.  A 25% swing to bush is unrealistic.

12.5%

You know what I mean.

Or the can be a strong third party on the left that could make that number less.  

Nader polled 3.7% here.

He may poll better this year.

[DarthKosh]

Bush couldn't win New York...he would only beat sharpton here by 8-10% and might lose to Kucinich, so dean would win it by over 15% easily.

We shall see.

Bush lost NY 60-35% in 2000.  A 25% swing to bush is unrealistic.

True, Bush lost badly to Gore in NY, but take a look at the last two times the Democrats nominated a liberal:

            National                    New York
1988    GOP by 8%               Dems by 4%
1984    GOP by 18%             GOP by 8%

So the GOP would need a 10-12% margin over a Dean nationwide to run a dead heat in NY.

But in both of those years cited, Reagan was a major influence and the state had gone Republican in the previous Presidential election.

If Dean pisses the middle off New York may come into play.

[DarthKosh]

Bush couldn't win New York...he would only beat sharpton here by 8-10% and might lose to Kucinich, so dean would win it by over 15% easily.

We shall see.

Bush lost NY 60-35% in 2000.  A 25% swing to bush is unrealistic.

True, Bush lost badly to Gore in NY, but take a look at the last two times the Democrats nominated a liberal:

            National                    New York
1988    GOP by 8%               Dems by 4%
1984    GOP by 18%             GOP by 8%

So the GOP would need a 10-12% margin over a Dean nationwide to run a dead heat in NY.

But in both of those years cited, Reagan was a major influence and the state had gone Republican in the previous Presidential election.

If Dean pisses the middle off New York may come into play.

I wouldn't count on it.

You never know politcs can be unpredictable.

[DarthKosh]

Bush couldn't win New York...he would only beat sharpton here by 8-10% and might lose to Kucinich, so dean would win it by over 15% easily.

We shall see.

Bush lost NY 60-35% in 2000.  A 25% swing to bush is unrealistic.

True, Bush lost badly to Gore in NY, but take a look at the last two times the Democrats nominated a liberal:

            National                    New York
1988    GOP by 8%               Dems by 4%
1984    GOP by 18%             GOP by 8%

So the GOP would need a 10-12% margin over a Dean nationwide to run a dead heat in NY.

But in both of those years cited, Reagan was a major influence and the state had gone Republican in the previous Presidential election.

If Dean pisses the middle off New York may come into play.

I wouldn't count on it.

You never know politcs can be unpredictable.

but it CAN be predicted accurately.

Depends on the race.

[DarthKosh]

Fascinating, NHpolitico - and this represents, given the date of the poll, a low point for Bush.  More likely to go up from here than down.  Still I think Kerry could campaign his way to more than 46% in Goremerica.  On the other hand he's unlikely to pick up anything Bush won in 2000.

And loose some states that Gore won.

[DarthKosh]

I would trust a drunken farmer over a Zogby poll...

That's who does his polling.

[DarthKosh]

The florida race was so close because of the bring 5 campaign, where african-americans were encouraged to bring five friends and relatives with them when they voted.

Whilst it was highly sucessful for those who were allowed to vote...

Five real friends or five imaginary friends?

There are allegations that Katherine Harris used her office as FL Secretary of State to give Republicans a boost in the 2000 election.

Specifically, that she engaged in selective purging of the voter rolls on the eve of the 2000 election.

It's a testable hypothesis.

I'd like to hear more about how we can test for real versus imaginary voters.

Sounds like a useful confidence test in instances where the mechanism of tallying votes is suspect, invisible...or proprietary.

There is proof of dead people voting in Missouri.