2004 User Predictions - Discussion

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Let's set a trap... something like "is sex with poodles always immoral"... and wait for John-mr_president to fight for the "yes" side...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Does anyone here remember Democrat/Republican?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'm just wondering whether or not not John/mr_president is Democrat/Republican...
[cue dramatic music/thunder]

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's importent to remember that while political activists/hacks/elected officials are very polarised, the electorate is not.
Political activists make the mistake of assuming that because they are polarised the wider electorate is.
They also make the mistake of assuming that 2000 was some form of perfect reflection of each states "natural" profile.
Hence irrational beliefs about states won by fairly small margins, or where the defeated candidate still won over 40% of the vote being "unwinnable"
The GOP might win Maryland or Vermont, the Democrats might win Mississippi or Georgia.
There is no reason why either party can't win the aformentioned states.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's importent to remember that while political activists/hacks/elected officials are very polarised, the electorate is not.
Political activists make the mistake of assuming that because they are polarised the wider electorate is.
They also make the mistake of assuming that 2000 was some form of perfect reflection of each states "natural" profile.
Hence irrational beliefs about states won by fairly small margins, or where the defeated candidate still won over 40% of the vote being "unwinnable"
The GOP might win Maryland or Vermont, the Democrats might win Mississippi or Georgia.
There is no reason why either party can't win the aformentioned states.

There is a reason why a Democrat can't win in the South or plains/moutain states - the great majority of people in those states always vote Republican.  The converse could be said of Maryland or Vermont, among many other lefist states.  Just look back at states won by Bush and Dole in 92 and 96, and that's with Perot sapping the votes of the sillier type of Republican voter.  Admittedly, Clinton wasn't very popular, but he's as popular as a Democrat has been in 40 years.
I think the electorate is just as polarized as activists, except for a small sliver in the middle.  I think it is just possible that a very popular Republican, like Reagan, could turn a few strongly Democratic states.  I doubt the alternative is possible, as places like Utah and Mississippi are filled with people who truly despise the Democratic party on ideological grounds.

One other note on Louisiana, Arkansas, and Tennessee - these states are firmly Republican in presidential voting.  Louisiana has narrowly elected Democrats who at least pose as conservative locally, but that doesn't mean much regarding presidential elections, any more than Pataki in NY means Bush can win that state.  

Utter rubbish. No evidence+wildly innacurate facts+falling straight into the trap I warned you all about.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It would help if you actually read what I said.
Bush will not win Massachusetts or Rhode Island and the Democratic nominee will not win Texas.
However I see no reason why a Democrat can't win Mississippi and I see no reason why Bush can't win Maryland.

My main point is:

Most voters split tickets=non-polerised electorate HOWEVER most activists and elected officials are very partizan and very polerised.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Uh, I wouldn't hold my breath that Bush will carry Maryland or the Dems will carry Georgia or Mississippi.  Opebo has it right when he says there is no evidence that consistent voting trends in these states are not going to hold this time.  There are many more Dems in Maryland and many more presidential Republicans in the deep South.  It is as simple as that.

But there is nothing to say that they can't.
That is the importent word. can't not won't

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Bill O'Reilly's prediction was 8 states for Dean.

I wouldn't trust someone from Faux News to speak my weight...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The most left wing of the mainstream candidates is actually Edwards... he'd make a good Labour cabinet member.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I was excluding Kuchinich, Braun and Sharpton.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The New Labour Group was a shortlived political grouping formed by some former Labour councillers on Hackney LBC.

Labour are basically the "blue collar wing"(ie: economically centre left and socially moderate) of the Democratic party, and Edwards fits that quite well.

I don't see how New York can be a tossup though...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Capito only won 60% because Humphries(an apalling candidate) kept some good candidates out of the primary with his money so he could have a rematch.
Stupid bastard.
With a good candidate Capito might have gone down in 2002, and it might be too late now. Typical...
BTW the GOP run a sacrificial lamb against Rahall in the Coal District
I don't see why they bothered but they did...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The GOP might be able to make WV less of a one party state, I won't deny that, but that's about it.
I think that you lot have a good chance at making FL a GOP fortress though...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Didn't the Democrat WV gov say he wasn't running again b/c of an affair or soemthing?

Officially yes.
Actually Wise isn't running for re-election because as a result of his affair he was going to suffer the humilation of losing in the Democratic Primary...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Dems should spend alot of money on WV-2.

Agreed

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Problem with that is that WV occasionally elects a GOP governer to act as a semi-balance to the all powerfull WVDP, Wise beat unpopular incumbent GOP governer Cecil Underwood in 2000 for example, but they[WVGOP Governers] are usually incompetent and voters don't want a new one for a least 10, preferably 15, years.

WV can be a weird state sometimes...

BTW WVSOS, Machin, is running and is going to be very hard to beat.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

NY was stronger for Gore than TX was for Bush.
You lot really need to learn how to read polls; based on those numbers the Dem would get 55-60%, with Bush on 35-40%

By all means target CT and NJ, but NY is a no-no.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

MN will be close, like it usually is, although I think it leans Democrat as there isn't going to be a strong Greenie standing this year.
The GOP can only win if turnout is low in strongly Democrat areas.
I actually think that the GOP have a better chance at winning in Wisconsin than MN.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Basically the coastal parts of Washington vote Democrat while the interior votes GOP.
There are exceptions: Thomas Foley represented the area around Spokane (eastern Washington) for a long time until he went down in 1994.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Spokane County voted for Bush in 2000, but voted Democrat in 1992 and 1996 and almost did in 1988.
It's on the WA-ID border.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is it just you two or are all people from Oregon this cynical about their own voters?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

You wanna see a what a depression is like?
Try Northern England/Central Scotland/South Wales in the 1980's...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

DC's Political Report prediction:

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Edwards is a conservative Democrat from a middle class background?

I never knew that.

I had always thought that he was a populist Democrat from a working class background.

I suppose I'd better bow down before the great knowledge of someone who thinks that WV miners voted en masse for Bush in 2000...

[/end sarcasm]

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Like a lot of people he seems to think that WV miners voted en masse for Bush... though I'm not sure where people get that idiotic idea from...

WV always has a low turnout... especially in the ultra-Democrat south of the state... where something like 90% of all coal in WV is mined.