2004 User Predictions - Discussion (user search)
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Author Topic: 2004 User Predictions - Discussion  (Read 866246 times)
Lunar
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« Reply #50 on: May 29, 2004, 01:58:48 AM »

It's not inevitable, it's a chance.
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Lunar
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Ireland, Republic of
« Reply #51 on: May 29, 2004, 05:44:31 PM »


Just right click and copy the image location.  Then paste it between IMG tags (see the help button if you need greater detail).

You have a strong Kerry victory.  I think if Kerry is +5% or whatever, he'll win West Virginia and be stronger in New Jersey than you have him.
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Lunar
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« Reply #52 on: May 29, 2004, 06:09:43 PM »
« Edited: May 29, 2004, 06:10:27 PM by Lunar »

It has the edge to Bush, but it obviously isn't the equivilent of Texas or Alabama.  You really think Florida has shifted +10 Bush since 2000 or something?  Even then, 55-45 isn't impossible.  I think it has shifted about +4.
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Lunar
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« Reply #53 on: May 30, 2004, 09:41:54 PM »

If he does that well in Colorado, Louisiana and Missouri then he'll pick up West Virginia too.
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Lunar
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« Reply #54 on: May 30, 2004, 09:52:41 PM »
« Edited: May 30, 2004, 09:53:23 PM by Lunar »

It's not actually a prediction, merely a snapshot of the election if it were held today.  The owner of the site still believes Bush will get Delaware and California.

Interesting though.
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Lunar
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« Reply #55 on: June 04, 2004, 04:13:19 PM »

89?  This is a best case scenario for Bush:


Kerry -171
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Lunar
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« Reply #56 on: June 06, 2004, 01:58:48 PM »
« Edited: June 06, 2004, 02:05:33 PM by Lunar »

Here's Vorlon's:


And Boss Tweed's:
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Lunar
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Posts: 30,404
Ireland, Republic of
« Reply #57 on: June 15, 2004, 06:00:27 PM »

This is my new format:

Shrunk Alaska, switched colors, add CDs for Maine and Nebraska and a new DC.

It's a modified version of Election Projection's.
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Lunar
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Ireland, Republic of
« Reply #58 on: June 16, 2004, 12:57:27 PM »
« Edited: June 16, 2004, 12:57:43 PM by Lunar »

I made it a bit fuzzy on purpose.  I edited it to make it moreso.
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Lunar
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Ireland, Republic of
« Reply #59 on: June 16, 2004, 05:26:25 PM »

Your CD-1 for Nebraska is too big.



The reason why I made mine slightly fuzzy was because I liked it a bit better.
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Lunar
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Ireland, Republic of
« Reply #60 on: June 23, 2004, 09:54:52 PM »

Actually it's not.  I understand how he came up with it, and I'd have something similar if I were to do the same, but it's a bit out of line.

Many states, such as Louisiana and Arizona will be below Bush's national number while states such as Wisconsin will be above it.  

Actually, it's more like this:
Above Bush's national number (Kerry's in a 49-49-2 election): Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, New Mexico, Oregon, West Virginia

Below Bush's national number (Bush's in a 49-49-2 election): Ohio, Missouri, Virginia, Arkansas, Louisiana, Arizona, Nevada

It's extremely unlikely for Bush to lose a state that he should be +5 in and simultaneously win a state that he should be -3 in.  If he's doing well he wins both, he's doing badly he loses both, and in a rough tie he wins the + and loses the -.  No scenario exists where he  loses the + and wins the -.  
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Lunar
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Ireland, Republic of
« Reply #61 on: July 17, 2004, 10:11:51 AM »

This just may be my ignorance, but why would Bush win Wisconsin, Ohio and PA etc. but win Iowa. Or am I missing something States.

Siege

Right now IMHO Bush is polling better in those three then in Iowa. I still believe Bush will end up sweeping every battleground in the end.

You also believed Hillary was absolutely going to be the VP choice.  What happened to our bet by the way?  Heh.
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Lunar
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Posts: 30,404
Ireland, Republic of
« Reply #62 on: July 19, 2004, 01:09:23 AM »

Missouri has been slipping slightly conservative.  It'll stop being the bellweather state as soon as a Democrat wins a close election.  Ohio and Florida both will probably switch before Missouri, either being enough to toss the election to Kerry (supposing he can hold onto Pennsylvania and the Midwest).  If Kerry does better than minimum necessary to win, then other states like Missouri will certainly switch.

Note that Gore actually got more votes than Bush despite losing in Missouri (that's with an illegal move keeping the courts open late only in heavily Democratic St. Louis).  You can see polls showing Kerry up nationally and down in St. Louis.

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Lunar
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Ireland, Republic of
« Reply #63 on: July 26, 2004, 08:56:03 PM »

Kerry shouldn't have to spend resources there.  He'll show up for fundraiser after fundraiser in both states (as well as Texas), but beyond that would be stupid.  Any Bush spending would be climbing uphill when in other states he could be getting much more bang for his buck.
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