2004 User Predictions - Discussion

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nfc champion panthers, HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

I don't think he's laughing now!

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Harry, what is thar map supposed to signify?

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It is a map of state legislatures. Some are Dem controlled, some are Rep controlled and some have divided control. NE is unicameral.

Okay, thanks.

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Please note that the last Democrat nominee to win more than half the vote was Carter in 1976 (with just 50.08% of the vote).  

Clinton would have done it twice had Perot not ran.

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Unlikely.  Without Perot Bush would have likely won 50-51% of the vote.  The majority of Perot's support came from Bush.

LOL...so with a recession loomingm Bush does nearly as well as he did in 1988?  I don't think so.

That also means 13-14% of Perot's 19% comes goes to Bush, which leaves...2% for Clinton and 3% stay home?

I would say Bush gets 1-2% closer in the PV without Perot but is still beaten soundly.

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Also, it is a downright fact that Clinton would have got 50% in 1996 without Perot.  It's a fact.

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Carl,

Tell me what you think of this.

Kerry does better in Iowa than Vermont?

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1992:



Clinton's lead INCREASES by 2% after Perot drops out the first time.



Clinton's lead remains at 16% after Perot re-enters.

Also, as Perot climbs, Clinton's lead decreases, and as Perot tapers off at the end, Clinton's lead climbs.

I just don't see any evidence Perot hurt Bush in the polls.  The only argument you can make is if that you say Perot's ads hurt Bush, but there really is no evidence to support that claim.

I think we can safely say Perot had little effect.

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Also, we have to remember that even though a lot of Perot's voters were conservatives they supported him over Bush BECAUSE they were unhappy with Bush and his broken tax pledge. They might well have refused to vote for him anyway, even if Perot wouldn't have been around.

I think Dazzleman said it best:  The very presence of a Perot-type candidate illustrated Bush's weaknesses.

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Carl,

First, I'd like to knwo where you got your numbers from, then I will point some things out.

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Lets assume carl's numbers are right.

Clinton/Gore: 48,858,570 (49.6%)
Bush/Quayle: 47,002,078 (47.7%)
Other: 2,639,382 (2.7%)

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Here's the map:


Clinton/Gore: 48,858,570 (49.6%); 346 EV's
Bush/Quayle: 47,002,078 (47.7%); 192 EV's
Other: 2,639,382 (2.7%); 0 EV's

So with Carl's numbers, Clinton wins convincingly.  Which is what I have been saying all along.

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Bush will run much tougher in California and New york than he did in 2000.  He won't win those two states but will force Dems to spend resources there they didn't have to spend in 2000.  

Bush ain't winning no NY or CA as it stands now.

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As I said, they come from a number of studies done by a couple of Political Science professors assisted by graduate students.

Carl,

Do you have the numbers for 1996?

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Using those numbers:


Clinton/Gore: 48,208,665 (50.9%); 348 EV's
Dole/Kemp: 44,454,266 (47.0); 190 EV's
Other: 1,995,389 (2.1); 0 EV's

Florida would have been extremely close, I have it as Clinton by .09%.

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Here is my 'pre-bounce' projection:


Kerry 274
Bush 264

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Current Snapshot:


Kerry/Edwards 312
Bush/Cheney 226

Kerry has been up since he picked Edwards (mid-July) on my map.  I'm trying my best not to get excited, because I learned my lesson in 1992 when Perot dropped out.

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I wish Texas was still in Mexico.

Me too.

I wish Spain had kept Florida.

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New Prediction


332-206...or 336-202, can't remember.

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New Prediction


332-206...or 336-202, can't remember.

Hey, same as mine!

That was from 3 weeks ago, Kerry has signnificantly closed tha gap since then.

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New Jersey is my election night suprise. Allow me to stay disillusioned, ok?

I suppose Bush can win NJ, but he won't lose NH and PA simultaneously.

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Bush 286
Kerry 252

Minnesota and NH are basically ties.

If Kerry gains Wisconsin and NM, and puts it at 271-267, a Colorado legal struggle likely decides the election.

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Still waiting for the example of a President seeking reelection who was defeated when the unemployment rate was less than six per cent.

Still waiting for the example of an incumbent president who won when the Redskins lost their final home game before the election.

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nfc champion panthers, HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Told you so

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nfc champion panthers, HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Told you so

Way to sock it to someone who is in Iraq and hasn't posted in months.

Thank you.

But that's when I was good at picking postseason football games.  Now all these road teams are winning and I'm like a hick on 5th avenue.