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  Talk Elections
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  Election Archive
  2004 U.S. Presidential Election
  2004 User Predictions - Discussion (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2004 User Predictions - Discussion  (Read 826708 times)
tweed
Miamiu1027
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Posts: 36,597
United States


« Reply #300 on: April 24, 2004, 06:26:33 pm »

Most philly democrats are not latte drinking liberals.

Not most, but many.  I think PA will be within 2-3% (no matter who wins) so if they vote for Nader, that could be more than enough to swing it to Bush.

Western PA in Pop-u-list coal mining nation is a waaaaay different world.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
Atlas Superstar
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Posts: 36,597
United States


« Reply #301 on: April 24, 2004, 07:05:40 pm »

I Predict that Kerry Wins by 500,000 votes.

Same as Al Gore did.

I think Bush will win the PV big by racking up majorities in the south.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,597
United States


« Reply #302 on: April 25, 2004, 08:02:29 am »


Not most, but many.  I think PA will be within 2-3% (no matter who wins) so if they vote for Nader, that could be more than enough to swing it to Bush.

Western PA in Pop-u-list coal mining nation is a waaaaay different world.

Philly liberal are WAY different from Pittsburgh liberal, your right about that Miami.  Western PA is going to have a hard time swollowing Kerry, I'm not saying that they won't vote Kerry, but the culture clash between the regional personalities and Kerry's could be enough for Bush to prevail in the Pittsburgh area.  If that happens then PA is Bush country.

There is no such thing as a Pittsburgh issue.  They are the coal miners and vote on economics (for the most part.)
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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Posts: 36,597
United States


« Reply #303 on: April 25, 2004, 07:29:17 pm »


Good one

SC and KY solid Dem also.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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Posts: 36,597
United States


« Reply #304 on: April 27, 2004, 05:02:21 pm »

UPDATED Kerry v. Bush:



Bush/Cheney 366
Kerry/Edwards 172
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tweed
Miamiu1027
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,597
United States


« Reply #305 on: April 27, 2004, 05:03:43 pm »



Kerry loses New York but Alabama is a tossup.


Also DC goes Bush.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,597
United States


« Reply #306 on: April 27, 2004, 05:08:48 pm »



errr, no it doesn't, are you looking at the linked map? DC is Democrat in it.....

I'm seeing it as blue
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tweed
Miamiu1027
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,597
United States


« Reply #307 on: April 27, 2004, 05:11:39 pm »



errr, no it doesn't, are you looking at the linked map? DC is Democrat in it.....

I'm seeing it as blue

oops, n/m we were looking at different maps, there are 2 linked ones.

right, okay.  Huh
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tweed
Miamiu1027
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,597
United States


« Reply #308 on: April 27, 2004, 05:14:45 pm »

UPDATED Kerry v. Bush:



Bush/Cheney 366
Kerry/Edwards 172
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tweed
Miamiu1027
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,597
United States


« Reply #309 on: April 30, 2004, 07:08:47 am »

Updated for your viewing pleasure/displeasure :


Bush - 304
Kerry - 234

Not bad---

Bush will get 50% in CO and FL...etc...
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tweed
Miamiu1027
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,597
United States


« Reply #310 on: May 01, 2004, 07:35:11 am »

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/pred04.php?action=indpred&id=3267

Kerry does well enough to take Alabama, Georgia, Arkansas and Arizona but Bush manages to take a slight lead in the EC by taking New York.

The guy is from Alabama.  That might have something to do with it.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,597
United States


« Reply #311 on: May 04, 2004, 07:11:39 am »

Revised for your viewing pleasure/displeasure :



R - 274
D - 264

If New Mexico goes Kerry we have a tie. That would be interesting.

Arkansas?
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tweed
Miamiu1027
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,597
United States


« Reply #312 on: May 04, 2004, 02:44:09 pm »

UPDATED Kerry v. Bush:


Bush/Cheney 394
Kerry/Edwards 144

Switched IL, ME, and DE to Bush.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,597
United States


« Reply #313 on: May 04, 2004, 02:51:46 pm »

Wow. And how comes CA is still Dem and IL isn't?

And I think you're going over-baord now. It isn't gonna be THAT bad.

1. IT would take a 650K vote swing in CA, only a 240K or so swing in IL.

2. It will be that bad
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tweed
Miamiu1027
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,597
United States


« Reply #314 on: May 04, 2004, 03:33:51 pm »

%-swing is more imprtant than in absolute terms. It would take a 45K vote swing in Wyoming, but that doesn't mean it's gonna happen.

It does for states of equal percentages
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tweed
Miamiu1027
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,597
United States


« Reply #315 on: May 05, 2004, 10:15:44 am »

Why the DC elector?
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tweed
Miamiu1027
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,597
United States


« Reply #316 on: May 05, 2004, 05:08:23 pm »


Tey won't necessarily be the same people.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,597
United States


« Reply #317 on: May 06, 2004, 07:13:20 am »


That guy gives comments too...there is a method to his madness.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
Atlas Superstar
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Posts: 36,597
United States


« Reply #318 on: May 07, 2004, 07:13:14 am »


Maine also.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,597
United States


« Reply #319 on: May 09, 2004, 08:38:22 am »


How?  Gore didn't even win a Nebraska county in 2000, and lost NE-02 by 18.4%.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,597
United States


« Reply #320 on: May 10, 2004, 03:07:12 pm »

It would be funny if my scenario actually happened.

It would be verry cool.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,597
United States


« Reply #321 on: May 10, 2004, 03:08:20 pm »

Kerry ain't winning crap in Nebraska give that thought up. Maine might split, maybe.

Maine almost split last time, it took them a couple hours to call Maine's second district.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,597
United States


« Reply #322 on: May 11, 2004, 02:52:30 pm »


Your percentages are messed up
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tweed
Miamiu1027
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,597
United States


« Reply #323 on: May 11, 2004, 02:55:58 pm »


How the hell will Bush get 80% in Texas?  And 60% in the upper south?  And Kerry 60% in WI?
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tweed
Miamiu1027
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,597
United States


« Reply #324 on: May 11, 2004, 03:06:02 pm »

since it makes no difference to me what margins they get i didn't even try to guess them.
winning a state by 80% is no different than winning by 1%.

Bush got 59% in TX in 2000, he would need 21% more to reach 80%.

I don't think he will even reach 60% there.  He runs pretty poorly in the urban areas, which are growing.
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