2004 User Predictions - Discussion

[Platypus]

Oregon (But Iowa and Wisconsin were also damned close).

Whilst they are certainly useful guides, I think that basing predictions solely on trends and history can be a bit misleading. If we did it in 2000, we probably would have predicted a much larger Gore win.

The publuic is fickle, figures aren't-but only the public votes.

[Platypus]

Some states can certainly be predicted by trends, for sure.

BTW, was I right with Oregon?

[Platypus]

Iowa, NH and Minnesota will *probably* switch, the rest wll probably stay the same, IMHO. That said, there is a hell of a long time to go...

[Platypus]

I know this is off topic (and is probably posted somewhere), but can somebody please explain to me how to post a 50 state electoral map here?

In the prediction section, create a prediction, right click on the maps, select properties, copy the http://www.us... (it should take up many lines in the property window click before the "h" and drag the cursor down), paste it inside of an [img ] [/ img] without the spaces in the tags, and post.

It keeps coming up a blank map--what am I doing wrong?

I've been right-clicking inside the window but outside the map. Then I go to properties and the address is something simple like http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/genusmap.php?

Does anybody know how to approach this issue?

same thing was happening to me. When you highlight the link, keep highlighting, ie, keep moving the mouse down and to the left; there is a whole bunch of letters and numbers after the genus bit

Took me a fortnight to work out at least :rolleyes:

[Platypus]

Who cares about who he wants to win the election.

Either way, I think he'd prefer someone with little previous military experience who goes off on unrelated wars that cause more terrorism then a decorated war hero who will get straight to the point and kill him rather then invade a country with the end result of making the world a more dangerous place

[Platypus]

Bush would be preffered, because he isn't actually fighting a war on terror. I think that Kerry would be more active in getting rid of OBL then Saddam-both are truly evil, but OBL is worse, imho.

[Platypus]

See the Democrats are nice

welcome

Back to predicting-Richardson would win NM, maybe NV, maybe FL and maybe AZ. Edwards wouldn't help in any specific states, but would nationally. I think if I had to give states he would help in, it would be here in IA, WI, MN, WV and maybe even FL.

I'll post my updates prediction in a moment.

[Platypus]

Kerry/Richardson


Kerry 267-Bush 271.

[Platypus]

Keryy/Edwards

[Platypus]

Kerry/Vilsack (I can Dream)

Kerry 254-284 Bush

BTW, Kerry/Edwards has Kerry winning 284-254)

[Platypus]

Last one, Kerry/Warner


Kerry 270-268 Bush

[Platypus]

sssh

If he chooses Howard Dean he loses, if that helps.

He also loses with Richardson and Vilsack on my maps, I think.

[Platypus]

I don't think Warner would help in IA because we don't like southerners here at all. Edwards is an exception because he spent SO much time here, and got to know us.

We are very isolationist here-Virginia isn't our concern, and Illinois is only slightly on the radar

[Platypus]

I still can't see Kerry winning both CO and LA but losing IA-very unlikely.

[Platypus]

is father was better.

Short memories, elephants...

[Platypus]

or Albania for that matter...

*starts whistling good 'ole shoe...*

[Platypus]

it hurts my eyes, mummy....

is Blue democrat or republican in this?

[Platypus]

current prediction, based on polls andpreminition



Kerry 273-265 Bush.

Before you yell at me, look at Rassmussen-Michigan, Florida, PA, and OH. Whislt not based purely on Rassmussen (LOL), it was the main polling site I used. Alot is gut feeling-the least scientific, but often most accurate-measurement.

[Platypus]

My new one:

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/pred04.php?action=indpred&id=3536

Bush 275, Kerry 263.

[Platypus]

I follow trends, rather then polls, in this file.

And I see a trend in MI going towards Bush.

[Platypus]

his margin of lead i decreasing, IIRC-so it is a trend to Kerry.

[Platypus]

That's a reasonable map, StatesRights, but one problem-Kerry wins OH AND PA, but loses NH AND Oregon?

Seems a bit odd...

[Platypus]

Bush: 279
Kerry: 259

[Platypus]

Total-intuition map. Basically, i pictured myself as a voter in that state, going to the polling booth, and voting for the first campaign banner I saw.



Kerry-270
Bush-268

It isn't mean to be an in depth analysis. Just gut feeling.

[Platypus]

I can't believe people are tking my map so seriousl

It's purely intution, and I believe says more about the state of the campaign in those states then the actual way it will go. It is purely based on the first banner I 'saw' when heading to the ballot box.

If you were to do the same, i'm sure your map would looki similar. It depends on whose campaign machine will be doing better in those states on the day.