2004 User Predictions - Discussion (user search)
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Author Topic: 2004 User Predictions - Discussion  (Read 867886 times)
Lunar
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« Reply #25 on: April 10, 2004, 03:52:45 AM »
You can't compare this to 2000 because TN was Gore's home state.  So, unless Kerry has some kind of new advantage here, the Bush margin will increase.  Increased partisanship isn't enough in this case.
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Lunar
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« Reply #26 on: April 11, 2004, 08:22:34 PM »
Recents:

****
http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/pred04.php?action=indpred&id=2861

Ah, a serious one that has California, Rhode Island, New York, Vermont all tossups.  Kind of strange that  New Mexico is as well since if Bush has caught up 10+ points in Cali and 20+ in Rhode Island, he should be stomping the Southwest.

Justification is that the Ahnuld will get votes for Bush in California and Kerry's too liberal for New England.

****

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/pred04.php?action=indpred&id=2857

Kerry with Montana, North Dakota, the entire Southwest, Arkansas and Missouri but somehow still losing Maryland (!?) West Virginia and Pennsylvania.
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Lunar
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« Reply #27 on: April 11, 2004, 08:57:49 PM »
Yes, both were serious and thought-out which makes it all the more interesting since they are obviously very wrong.
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Lunar
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« Reply #28 on: April 11, 2004, 11:10:56 PM »
« Edited: April 11, 2004, 11:17:12 PM by Lunar »

Youch.  Colorado and Lousiana aren't as off the wall as Montana.  For example, there are plenty with Kerry taking Arizona, but Colorado is the same in the latest polls.  I'm not posting people who just have Kerry winning Missouri, but those who have that and have him picking up Montana but losing Maryland.

And of course, I know mine is a stretch.
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Lunar
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« Reply #29 on: April 13, 2004, 04:44:55 PM »
« Edited: April 13, 2004, 04:45:27 PM by Lunar »
Bush's approval ratings are nowhere near where other incumbants who've been elected have been.  It looks to be a close race and all indicators point to that.

Bush is not going to win in California unless he wins +12 nationally or something.  He can't just gain a million and a half voters for him in such a polarized political climate.  I also doubt that Maryland is a tossup.
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Lunar
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« Reply #30 on: April 13, 2004, 07:37:46 PM »
« Edited: April 13, 2004, 07:45:41 PM by Lunar »
Quote from: StatesRights on April 13, 2004, 02:25:45 PM
DcPoliticalReport.com has California, Maryland, NY, Wash, Oregon, all within the MOE for Kerry. That's scary you have to admit.

They have a month-old poll with a margin of error of 5% (!) that only has Kerry up 9 points.  Not something to sweat over considering that it's just as likely that he's actually up 14 as losing.

Washing they have a poll from late last month with a MoE of 4.5% showing Kerry only 6 points up with 4% for "other" which will likely filter back to him anyway.

Maryland Kerry's only 5 up, but I'm a bit skeptical with the firm of "Gonzales Research"

Oregon has Kerry up 5 with 5 for other.  Pollster is "Tim Hibbits."

The New York one isn't even a poll versus Kerry, only a "democratic nominee" taken in January.
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Lunar
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« Reply #31 on: April 14, 2004, 01:02:27 AM »
« Edited: April 14, 2004, 01:05:14 AM by Lunar »
Ok, updated my map to be more normal.  Predicts a strong Kerry in the Midwest but not strong enough in the Southwest.  I think the national vote will be about 50% in favor of the winner (Kerry), +/- 2%.

From my old prediction:

Kerry:
+Ohio
+Iowa

Bush:
+New Mexico
+Lousiana
+Colorado
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Lunar
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« Reply #32 on: April 16, 2004, 10:50:39 PM »
Keep switching back and forth between each side, heh.
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Lunar
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« Reply #33 on: April 17, 2004, 03:15:34 PM »
« Edited: April 17, 2004, 03:16:17 PM by Lunar »
I did, and I made a post about it.  I also gave up Lousiana after a poll showed Bush +14.  Ah well.
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Lunar
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« Reply #34 on: April 17, 2004, 03:19:40 PM »
Quote from: Boss Tweed on April 17, 2004, 03:16:23 PM
Quote from: Lunar on April 17, 2004, 03:15:34 PM
I did, and I made a post about it.

You also gave up on Louisiana.

How do you put your map on a slant like that?

I edited my post a few seconds afterwards to mention Lousiana, you beat me to it it seems.

The code is here:
<img width=253 height=92>http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/USERMAPS/pe20041363P4.gif</img>
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Lunar
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« Reply #35 on: April 17, 2004, 03:27:18 PM »
It stretches the image to whatever size you want.  If the width:height ratio is higher than the image starts at, it'll be stretched sideways.
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Lunar
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« Reply #36 on: April 19, 2004, 12:58:44 AM »
Quote from: Rococo4 on April 19, 2004, 12:46:41 AM
I cant really buy this NH going for Kerry argument that many people are using because they will vote for their next door neighboor.

I disagree.  I think it helps Kerry here to be next door rather than Texas.  But I think the real reason Kerry will win here if he does will be because of the buzz of the primaries that Bush didn't have this year but Kerry did.
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Lunar
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« Reply #37 on: April 23, 2004, 10:32:53 PM »
Yes, Republicans are more economically conservative.  This means that they usually prefer to have the government out of our life economically (but in socially).  Democrats are the reverse, preferring to pay for government programs like universal healthcare and whatnot.

However, I question whether or not this is what Bush is doing.  It seems he shifts more of the burden to indirect indicators, like college tuition among other things.
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Lunar
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« Reply #38 on: April 25, 2004, 02:58:19 PM »
« Edited: April 25, 2004, 02:58:39 PM by Lunar »
Recents:



Err.

***

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/pred04.php?action=indpred&id=3172

Kerry loses New York but Alabama is a tossup.
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Lunar
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« Reply #39 on: April 25, 2004, 04:53:22 PM »
I just glance at the recently submitted ones every now and then.
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Lunar
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« Reply #40 on: April 25, 2004, 05:27:01 PM »
Everyone knows that Indiana and Oklahoma are in the bag for Kerry while many of what the so-called "polls" claim are the battlegrounds (NH, FL, OH) are heading Bush.
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Lunar
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« Reply #41 on: April 28, 2004, 01:35:27 AM »
I doubt Kerry will stay down in the polls.  They'll even out and bounce around.
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Lunar
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« Reply #42 on: April 30, 2004, 10:37:00 PM »
http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/pred04.php?action=indpred&id=3267

Kerry does well enough to take Alabama, Georgia, Arkansas and Arizona but Bush manages to take a slight lead in the EC by taking New York.
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Lunar
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« Reply #43 on: May 05, 2004, 04:48:08 PM »
Kerry losing Michigan but not Iowa?
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Lunar
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« Reply #44 on: May 06, 2004, 08:58:04 PM »
« Edited: May 06, 2004, 08:58:16 PM by Lunar »
I'd almost think that map was based on local power (who are the senators and governer) but WV isn't Dem there.
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Lunar
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« Reply #45 on: May 09, 2004, 05:48:15 PM »
If Bush wins then that is a very likely scenario.
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Lunar
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« Reply #46 on: May 14, 2004, 09:44:18 PM »

How are Michigan and Minnesota tossups but not Iowa or New Hampshire?  Bush has to be +5 for those to be considered "tossups" and at this point, he will be winning in West Virginia, Ohio, and Oregon as well.
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Lunar
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« Reply #47 on: May 15, 2004, 03:28:46 PM »

NH is currently looking significantly more Republican than Pennsylvania and Ohio.  Not sure about Kerry winning Pennsylvania and Ohio but not Oregon though..though definately possible.
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Lunar
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« Reply #48 on: May 15, 2004, 07:31:13 PM »
Quote from: hughento on May 15, 2004, 07:25:46 PM
That's a reasonable map, StatesRights, but one problem-Kerry wins OH AND PA, but loses NH AND Oregon?

Seems a bit odd...

NH is more Republican than either of those, so that's fine.  Like I said, not sure about Oregon though.  I think he is predicting Bush to continue to build up support there.
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Lunar
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« Reply #49 on: May 29, 2004, 01:46:30 AM »
« Edited: May 29, 2004, 01:51:45 AM by Lunar »
I think he is assuming a Bush collapse.  However, you're doing the same thing with Kerry.

Not sure how the heck he loses California and New Jersey but keeps Washington.  You'd think if Bush was +14 or so he'd take Washington and Minnesota too.  Not to mention Illinois and Maryland.

New Jersey was +16 and California was +12.  California = Georgia.  New Jersey = Alabama.
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