2004 User Predictions - Discussion

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I don't think Colorado will go democrat.

welcome to the board Lunar!

Only if the VP is Richarson.

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With Richardson:

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edwards on the ticket?  Maybe take away NM, AZ, FL, and NV, and add OH, WI, and IA.

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I'm gonna update mine now.  I lose faith in Kerry every day.

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Bush/Cheney 350
Kerry/Edwards 188

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You may call me a dreamer..lol

Miami though I would like that to be the final result I just dont see it.

Why not?

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Gephardt is a generic Dem.

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Gephardt is to the right of KErry

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Gephardt is to the right of KErry

No he isn’t on trade, on government spending, on taxation, he is very much to Kerry's left (however he is a friend of Kerry's and now a big supporter)...  

Kerry is the most liberal senate member.
Gephardt is in the center-left among house members.

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Clinton won two times being considered a "moderate". Whens the last time a person who spent any time in office as a senator became President?

Kennedy I think

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He was a Senator. But he was out a lot of that tenure for illness and did not vote very much on bills. Dukakis Jr. has a long record. Democrats wanted a Clinton and have ended up with a Dukakis.

yep

Where's Edwards when you need him?

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Indiana Poll (N=600)
Registered voters (87% of which are very likely to vote)

Bush: 55% favorable, 37% unfavorable
Kerry: 35% favorable, 40% unfavorable

52-37, Bush over Kerry
43% definite for Bush
29% definite for Kerry

(self-identification)
38% GOP
26% Dem
21% Independent

Who did the poll?

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Ok, thanks.

Never heard of 'bellwether research'

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Bush/Cheney 287
Kerry/Richardson 251

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UPDATED Kerry v. Bush:



Bush 361
Kerry 177

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ouch

ouch yourself

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http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=694&ncid=696&e=4&u=/ap/20040405/ap_on_el_pr/kerry_vice_president

Any extremely different and realistic  maps with these different VP possibilities.  
Especially Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius, William Cohen, Virginia Gov. Mark Warner, New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson

aslo
Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack
Rep. Dick Gephardt
North Carolina Sen. John Edwards
Bob Kerrey

I don't see any maps at the link you just posted.

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I am deliberating whether to send California, Illinois, and WV over to Bush.

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California?  California has been getting MORE liberal, not less.  Arnold isn't even campaigning for Bush (because Bush refuses to give us any money, or at least the same amount as  before, I think).  The hands-off approach of the federal government towards Enron, both while they were butchering our economy and the relaxed approach towards the prosecution doesn't help.

You sure you don't want to give Vermont and DC to him as well as Illinois and California?

Maybe Vermont, not DC.

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So, maybe something like this, if Kerry's LUCKY?!



I think you're out of touch.  You automatically (and falsely) assume everyone will adopt your view of Kerry (even though your view is probably right).

I could see that heppening, just as HI to Kerry.

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Won't happen

Bush getting 500+ EV's is more likely than Kerry getting 500+.

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That French guy in one of his comments said "It isn't a super map?"

LOL

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UPDATED:



Same EV total that is in my signature, but I adjusted some leans into solids and solids into leans.

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I can't see Kerry picking up West Virginia if Bush stomps him in Washington, New Hampshire, the entire Midwest, and two other battleground steel states (Ohio and Pen).  And do you have Maryland at 40%?  

No that's at lean Kerry.  It is a confidence map.

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The Democrats could only dream of this!!

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/pred04.php?action=indpred&id=2800

That's Kevinstat's predicition.  It's not really his prediction.