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  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2004 U.S. Presidential Election
  2004 User Predictions - Discussion
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Author Topic: 2004 User Predictions - Discussion  (Read 826870 times)
Bob Dole '96
mpirner
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« Reply #2400 on: October 10, 2004, 11:02:48 am »

In fact, he's making a huge swing through there next week.  Fact is Gore barely won the state in 2000 and several polls have shown Bush ahead.  so why would he pull funding?  A simple 5 point win for Bush would easily carry Oregon and Minnesota, and New Jersey will come into his column by less than1 percent.
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Napoleon XIV
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« Reply #2401 on: October 13, 2004, 12:31:50 am »

New Prediction


332-206...or 336-202, can't remember.

Hey, same as mine! Smiley
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #2402 on: October 14, 2004, 02:10:43 pm »


That was from 3 weeks ago, Kerry has signnificantly closed tha gap since then.
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Bono
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« Reply #2403 on: October 16, 2004, 04:05:16 am »

First time I post here. My prediction:

Bush-272
Kerry-266
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josh_24
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« Reply #2404 on: October 19, 2004, 04:13:26 pm »

how do i post my prediction on this forum>??
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StatesRights
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« Reply #2405 on: October 20, 2004, 02:49:40 pm »

Updated.



Washington, Michigan, Oregon, WV and New Hampshire are finished.
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elcorazon
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« Reply #2406 on: October 20, 2004, 03:00:25 pm »

Updated.



Washington, Michigan, Oregon, WV and New Hampshire are finished.
you forgot to fix New Jersey.
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StatesRights
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« Reply #2407 on: October 20, 2004, 03:05:15 pm »

Updated.



Washington, Michigan, Oregon, WV and New Hampshire are finished.
you forgot to fix New Jersey.

New Jersey is my election night suprise. Wink Allow me to stay disillusioned, ok? Smiley
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Platypus
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« Reply #2408 on: October 20, 2004, 10:26:41 pm »

My prediction-the three states that'll really determine it are WI, OH and WI. If Bush wins OH, he wins; if Bush wins NM and WI, he wins; if Bush win OH and NM he wins, if Bush wins OH and WI he wins (4 possibilities).

If Kerry wins Ohio and Wisconsin he wins; if Kerry wins Ohio and New Mexico he wins (2 options).

Therefore, a 66% chance of Bush winning (and I predict NM will go Kerry, WI will go Bush and OH will bve very close-but for Bush)
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muon2
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« Reply #2409 on: October 21, 2004, 08:05:24 am »

My prediction-the three states that'll really determine it are WI, OH and WI. If Bush wins OH, he wins; if Bush wins NM and WI, he wins; if Bush win OH and NM he wins, if Bush wins OH and WI he wins (4 possibilities).

If Kerry wins Ohio and Wisconsin he wins; if Kerry wins Ohio and New Mexico he wins (2 options).

Therefore, a 66% chance of Bush winning (and I predict NM will go Kerry, WI will go Bush and OH will bve very close-but for Bush)
Of your four scenarios for Bush, two are redundant. If Bush wins OH, he wins, so in that case it doesn't matter what happens in WI and NM. I would also add IA to the mix, since it can pair with WI just as NM can for a win.

I would amend your analysis to read:

Four states will determine the election in a close race: OH, WI, IA, and NM.

Bush wins in three cases:
1) Win OH
2) Win WI and IA
3) Win WI and NM

Kerry wins in two cases:
1) Win OH and WI
2) Win OH, IA and NM
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MAS117
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« Reply #2410 on: October 21, 2004, 08:56:51 pm »

It's so close I can't tell you who will win. If you look at my map, I have Kerry wining the election. Bush will win FL, and Kerry will win PA. Ohio is slightly Kerry now. If Kerry wins Ohio and Iowa, but loses New Mexico, he could have only 269 EV, that also puts Bush with 269 EV. SO CLOSE!
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #2411 on: October 22, 2004, 05:50:49 pm »


New Jersey is my election night suprise. Wink Allow me to stay disillusioned, ok? Smiley

I suppose Bush can win NJ, but he won't lose NH and PA simultaneously.
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alcaeus
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« Reply #2412 on: October 23, 2004, 09:35:59 am »


   Bush is ahead by 3 in NC, which makes NC a tie.

 
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alcaeus
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« Reply #2413 on: October 23, 2004, 09:58:24 am »


   Given that challengers historically do better than the polls indicate while the incumbent stays where the polls indicate, Bush will be at 48 to 49 percent of the vote on election day.

   Kerry is leading in the battleground states 50 -46.

   Predictions for election day:

   Surprises:  Kerry wins North Carolina and Colorado.

   Post election day disputes:  Missouri, Colorado, Florida, Nevada, WV, and NJ

    Kerry wins OH by 3 and PA by 7.

    Bush wins FL by 2

    When the votes are counted Kerry gets 313 electoral votes, Bush 225 electoral votes.

     None of the challenges from either party to election results will be successful, or be heard by the Supreme Court.

   

   
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StatesRights
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« Reply #2414 on: October 23, 2004, 04:14:25 pm »


   Bush is ahead by 3 in NC, which makes NC a tie.

 

NC is out of play. Bush by 6% at least.
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alcaeus
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« Reply #2415 on: October 23, 2004, 04:49:43 pm »


   Survey USA poll this past week.    NC  Bush 50  Kerry 47.

   North Carolina is similar to VA in this election, except without as much of a military vote.  It's a world apart from South Carolina.
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StatesRights
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« Reply #2416 on: October 23, 2004, 05:00:56 pm »


   Survey USA poll this past week.    NC  Bush 50  Kerry 47.

   North Carolina is similar to VA in this election, except without as much of a military vote.  It's a world apart from South Carolina.

Doubt it will end that close. Kerry has never lead in any poll in N.Carolina.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #2417 on: October 23, 2004, 06:29:28 pm »



Bush 286
Kerry 252

Minnesota and NH are basically ties.

If Kerry gains Wisconsin and NM, and puts it at 271-267, a Colorado legal struggle likely decides the election.
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josh_24
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« Reply #2418 on: October 23, 2004, 08:53:11 pm »

Poll: Who do you think will win the 2004 Presidential Election? George W. Bush or John F. Kerry?
Then: Who do you want to win the 2004 Presidential Election?

please answer my poll.
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minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #2419 on: October 24, 2004, 01:59:31 pm »

Poll: Who do you think will win the 2004 Presidential Election? George W. Bush or John F. Kerry?
Then: Who do you want to win the 2004 Presidential Election?

please answer my poll.
I think you'll see answers galore around here without people directly answering you.
Are you in any way related to josh_22?
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #2420 on: October 25, 2004, 08:35:15 am »



How's this?
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Andy25
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« Reply #2421 on: October 25, 2004, 11:27:27 am »

Kerry 272- Bush 262

It will be a squeezer. Ohio and Florida will be decisive!
The Colorado thingy might play into this as well...
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minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #2422 on: October 25, 2004, 11:32:27 am »

Kerry 272- Bush 262

It will be a squeezer. Ohio and Florida will be decisive!
The Colorado thingy might play into this as well...
It doesn't really look like it will pass.
Sad
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kelpie
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« Reply #2423 on: October 26, 2004, 10:16:50 am »

Kerry 272- Bush 262

It will be a squeezer. Ohio and Florida will be decisive!
The Colorado thingy might play into this as well...

CT, RI?  I think Kerry should just hold on to them...
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Andy25
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« Reply #2424 on: October 26, 2004, 11:33:32 am »

CT, RI?  I think Kerry should just hold on to them...

LOL sure he will, i only wanted to make it more exciting :-)

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