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  Talk Elections
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  2004 U.S. Presidential Election
  2004 User Predictions - Discussion
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Author Topic: 2004 User Predictions - Discussion  (Read 826799 times)
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StatesRights
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« Reply #2125 on: May 23, 2004, 02:11:37 pm »

Updated for your viewing pleasure/displeasure:




R - 321
D - 216*





*- 1 Democratic Elector will abstain.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #2126 on: May 23, 2004, 03:00:48 pm »

One Democratic elector will NOT abstain
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StatesRights
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« Reply #2127 on: May 23, 2004, 03:54:31 pm »

One Democratic elector will NOT abstain

Yes the DC one will out of protest.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #2128 on: May 23, 2004, 03:55:27 pm »

It won't necessarily be the SAME ONE, and even if it was, they wouldn't necessarily protest.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #2129 on: May 23, 2004, 07:50:11 pm »

Here's a freaky one:



Kerry 452, Bush 86 (From a Washington Republican)

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/pred04.php?action=indpred&id=368
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StatesRights
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« Reply #2130 on: May 23, 2004, 07:51:28 pm »


Kerry winning Texas, TN, Georgia? Keep dreaming!
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #2131 on: May 23, 2004, 07:51:43 pm »

The Confidence Map is even scarier:



NC Strong Kerry but the upper midwest, NM, and OR are tossups.
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bergie72
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« Reply #2132 on: May 24, 2004, 08:52:12 pm »

Maybe they are assuming it will be a Kerry/Edwards ticket.  The polls so far sounds like the Dems would get a big boost in NC with that combination.  

His (I'm guessing it's a he) previous prediction was:  Dem 280, Rep 258, with just a few changes in the confidence map...

Just my $.02 worth    :-)
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StatesRights
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« Reply #2133 on: May 24, 2004, 08:53:23 pm »

His first map makes a LOT more sense..Except TN.
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Harry
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« Reply #2134 on: May 27, 2004, 08:28:33 pm »
« Edited: May 27, 2004, 08:30:37 pm by Senator Harry, PPT-Senate »

here's my maps:

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ilikeverin
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« Reply #2135 on: May 27, 2004, 08:45:51 pm »

I updated these a few days back:



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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #2136 on: May 28, 2004, 07:07:19 am »

John Engle has a prediction entry Cheesy
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StatesRights
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« Reply #2137 on: May 28, 2004, 10:18:20 am »

Who is John Engle?
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ilikeverin
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« Reply #2138 on: May 28, 2004, 11:27:57 am »

John Engle has a prediction entry Cheesy

Yeah, I saw that Cheesy
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #2139 on: May 28, 2004, 01:40:55 pm »


He is John from Iowa.  The troll.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #2140 on: May 28, 2004, 03:30:52 pm »

John Engle has a prediction entry Cheesy

Yeah...WA is lean Bush, but GA is strong Kerry... Cheesy

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khirkhib
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« Reply #2141 on: May 28, 2004, 06:15:23 pm »
« Edited: May 28, 2004, 06:18:12 pm by khirkhib »



My newest prediction. slight up-date from the last.
Derived from information from http://www.electionprojection.com/elections2004.html

Georgia soon to become a toss up

Also Dave I love the update to the map prediction part of your web page.  Finally their might be some traction in changes in the mean map prediction instead of having Ohio frozen solid Bush and Wisconsin solid Kerry.
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StatesRights
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« Reply #2142 on: May 29, 2004, 01:33:05 am »



My newest prediction. slight up-date from the last.
Derived from information from http://www.electionprojection.com/elections2004.html

Georgia soon to become a toss up

Also Dave I love the update to the map prediction part of your web page.  Finally their might be some traction in changes in the mean map prediction instead of having Ohio frozen solid Bush and Wisconsin solid Kerry.

Barring a complete Bush collapse this map will NEVER happen. Look at my map. That WILL happen.
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Lunar
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« Reply #2143 on: May 29, 2004, 01:46:30 am »
« Edited: May 29, 2004, 01:51:45 am by Lunar »

I think he is assuming a Bush collapse.  However, you're doing the same thing with Kerry.

Not sure how the heck he loses California and New Jersey but keeps Washington.  You'd think if Bush was +14 or so he'd take Washington and Minnesota too.  Not to mention Illinois and Maryland.

New Jersey was +16 and California was +12.  California = Georgia.  New Jersey = Alabama.
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StatesRights
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« Reply #2144 on: May 29, 2004, 01:58:22 am »

I think he is assuming a Bush collapse.  However, you're doing the same thing with Kerry.

Not sure how the heck he loses California and New Jersey but keeps Washington.  You'd think if Bush was +14 or so he'd take Washington and Minnesota too.  Not to mention Illinois and Maryland.

New Jersey was +16 and California was +12.  California = Georgia.  New Jersey = Alabama.

A Kerry collapse is inevitable. The Democrats have been carrying him along since the primaries.
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Lunar
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« Reply #2145 on: May 29, 2004, 01:58:48 am »

It's not inevitable, it's a chance.
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khirkhib
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« Reply #2146 on: May 29, 2004, 10:39:12 am »
« Edited: May 29, 2004, 11:01:44 am by khirkhib »

Come on be fair to the others.  Lets take a look at States Rights map

My map is assuming a bush collapse.  I like my confidance map better because under a collapse situation I think those will be the states that are with in 5% difference.  Your map is good but I think at this point that the Bush collapse has better odds despite Kerry's efforts.  

For the Bush or Kerry sweep the race cannot be about Republic vs Democratic and I think that the build up will not let the race be purely political.  This election is about the future of America.

For the Bush sweep he wants Patriotic America vs Intelectual Elitists.  Being that their are much much more Patrotic Americans than Elitists it would be a huge sweep and the whole middle would fall to Bush. Your map probably doesn't express that well enough.

For the Kerry sweep he wants Freedom Lovers vs NeoCons.  If Bush becomes defined by his actions and those he surrounds himself by as a NeoCon and not a republican much of that solid and stout support that he is showing right now will have a reason not to vote for him.  Being proud republicans i doubt that Kerry would pick up those votes but they will not be enthused to vote at all.

Much of this depends on how it plays out on election day though.  I think that the NeoCons have enough control over polling sources that their will show a close election up to the day of it.  Even if it is not a reflection of reality.  The Anti-Bush people are skittish enough over losing the last one that if it looks close they will vote in droves.  Most Republicans at this point will believe that the election is close but in the states that I show as new toss-ups will think that with-in their states it will not be close and so will much more likely decide not to vote.

Its an exteme but it is rationalized and valid.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #2147 on: May 29, 2004, 10:48:00 am »

Here is Thurmond's map:


Why would Kerry lose CA and NJ but hold on to WA and MN?  Khirkbib's map makes more sense, although neither will happen.
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Shira
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« Reply #2148 on: May 29, 2004, 04:50:58 pm »
« Edited: May 29, 2004, 04:55:33 pm by Shira »

Someone claimed here that NJ is a tossup state. The fact is that NJ is super-safe for Kerry. Bush+Buchannan got there only 40.3% in 2000.
VA, on the other hand might become tied, since Bush got there 52.5% in 2000 and the Reps are in a slow, but constant decline in that state.
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zachman
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« Reply #2149 on: May 29, 2004, 04:58:34 pm »

Here is my prediction (I can't figure out how to post it): http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/pred04.php?action=indpred&id=1196
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