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  Talk Elections
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  2004 U.S. Presidential Election
  2004 User Predictions - Discussion
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Author Topic: 2004 User Predictions - Discussion  (Read 826858 times)
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StatesRights
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« Reply #2100 on: May 15, 2004, 11:41:54 am »

Current map with polls this is how it's looking. ouch



R - 270
D - 268
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classical liberal
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« Reply #2101 on: May 15, 2004, 03:19:57 pm »

Switch NH.
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Lunar
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« Reply #2102 on: May 15, 2004, 03:28:46 pm »


NH is currently looking significantly more Republican than Pennsylvania and Ohio.  Not sure about Kerry winning Pennsylvania and Ohio but not Oregon though..though definately possible.
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classical liberal
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« Reply #2103 on: May 15, 2004, 04:28:19 pm »

I guess if you're looking at today's situation.  However when the fed funds rate returns to a normal level, the interest payment on the debt eclipses defense as our largest expenditure, and people comprehend the GOP's newfound disregard for maintaining positive or zero cashflow there will be a big shift away from Bush.  Even if Iraq works and the people have work, if fiscal discipline is entirely missing from DC people will be pissed.  I expect to see the GOP loose every close race this year as a result.
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StatesRights
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« Reply #2104 on: May 15, 2004, 05:59:28 pm »


No. lol
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Platypus
hughento
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« Reply #2105 on: May 15, 2004, 07:25:46 pm »

That's a reasonable map, StatesRights, but one problem-Kerry wins OH AND PA, but loses NH AND Oregon?

Seems a bit odd...
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Lunar
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« Reply #2106 on: May 15, 2004, 07:31:13 pm »

That's a reasonable map, StatesRights, but one problem-Kerry wins OH AND PA, but loses NH AND Oregon?

Seems a bit odd...

NH is more Republican than either of those, so that's fine.  Like I said, not sure about Oregon though.  I think he is predicting Bush to continue to build up support there.
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klrbzzz
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« Reply #2107 on: May 15, 2004, 07:55:49 pm »

I wonder if Kerry is going to make any stops in Utah, to get it down to a respectable 37-40%
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #2108 on: May 15, 2004, 08:52:49 pm »

I wonder if Kerry is going to make any stops in Utah, to get it down to a respectable 37-40%

Maybe he can send his VP choice out there.

Seriously, Bush has an OUTSIDE chance at 80% in Utah.
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StatesRights
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« Reply #2109 on: May 15, 2004, 08:53:37 pm »

I wonder if Kerry is going to make any stops in Utah, to get it down to a respectable 37-40%

Maybe he can send his VP choice out there.

Seriously, Bush has an OUTSIDE chance at 80% in Utah.

Bush will get 65% in Florida...........lol Wink
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #2110 on: May 15, 2004, 08:55:56 pm »

Bush will get 65% in Florida...........lol Wink

Nah, maybe 55% though...
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opebo
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« Reply #2111 on: May 16, 2004, 01:18:38 am »

State's Rights, who is that hot off-road girl in your picture?
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #2112 on: May 16, 2004, 07:41:34 am »

State's Rights, who is that hot off-road girl in your picture?

I was thinking the same thing Wink
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StatesRights
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« Reply #2113 on: May 16, 2004, 09:06:29 am »

State's Rights, who is that hot off-road girl in your picture?

I was thinking the same thing Wink

Gretchen Wilson
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #2114 on: May 16, 2004, 09:10:28 am »

A country singer? Sad
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StatesRights
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« Reply #2115 on: May 16, 2004, 09:15:31 am »



Yep! No Sad about it nothing but Grin Grin Grin Grin from me!
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #2116 on: May 16, 2004, 09:17:34 am »

Yep! No Sad about it nothing but Grin Grin Grin Grin from me!

Other than Shania Twain, I dislike country singers.
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opebo
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« Reply #2117 on: May 17, 2004, 04:35:17 pm »

Yep! No Sad about it nothing but Grin Grin Grin Grin from me!

Other than Shania Twain, I dislike country singers.

Country music used to be great stuff, about two generations ago.
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millwx
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« Reply #2118 on: May 19, 2004, 06:53:16 am »

I tend to agree with you, although I'll reserve that opinion until I hear Vorlon's view of it.

Just wanted to pop in again here, because apparently (it was mentioned on the MI poll thread) Vorlon (I presume he's your resident poll expert?  I've not been around here long enough), has confirmed my statement (not personally said I was right... but he has stated something similar... I didn't see such a post by Vorlon, but someone was referencing him)...

The challenger gets a vast majority of the votes.

Though I admit it's a very questionable thing to do due to methodologies, I can also tell you that if you take the six most recent national polls and average the three with the largest pool of undecideds versus the three with the smallest pool of undecideds you'll see that, indeed, the undecideds break better than 2:1 for Kerry.  I'll admit it's a bit shady to be averaging polls like that, but it does indicate that the 2:1 rule does hold.

I mention this because a lot of Bush supporters on this thread and the MI poll thread are disregarding this "rule", for a number of reasons.  I'm not being pro-Kerry here (I don't have much of an axe to grind, I don't like either one), I'm just being realistic.  The Dems appear correct in flaunting this axiom around.  The "resident expert" has confirmed this, and current poll averages IMPLY the same (though, again, I'll say that poll averaging like that is a bit shady).

So, with about 5-8% undecided in most states (more in some), Bush needs to be about 2-4% in the lead for it to really even be a dead heat.  If I could figure out how to post my prediction here (I'm a bit of a techno-idiot), I would.  It's straight from the poll numbers, but using the 2:1 interpretation and tipping any ties to Kerry, due to the trends plus the Nader factor (some Naderites will likely go for Kerry at the last minute).  You'd see that it's far more Kerry-colored than a map using the poll numbers straight-up, with no interpretation.

Anyway, sorry for being so long-winded... I don't post often, so needed to get all my thoughts out at once!  :-)  Just wanted to chime in again that there is some validation on the 2:1 (or more!) issue I raised earlier.
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ilikeverin
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« Reply #2119 on: May 19, 2004, 11:24:01 am »

I tend to agree with you, although I'll reserve that opinion until I hear Vorlon's view of it.

Yup, Vorlon's our poll expert... we're all lost and confused without him Wink

He's gone 'till May 31st, although somehow his polls get into the "Polls" part of the site... hmm...
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Josh/Devilman88
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« Reply #2120 on: May 21, 2004, 08:49:20 pm »

Do you have to pay to do the prediction thing?
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #2121 on: May 21, 2004, 09:03:33 pm »

Good Graphic:

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Dave Leip
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« Reply #2122 on: May 22, 2004, 02:03:35 pm »

Josh22 - no payment is required for user predictions or forum or polls comments.  These are free user interactive features.  The pay part of the site is only for the detailed data and maps.
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Josh/Devilman88
josh4bush
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« Reply #2123 on: May 22, 2004, 02:38:04 pm »

Josh22 - no payment is required for user predictions or forum or polls comments.  These are free user interactive features.  The pay part of the site is only for the detailed data and maps.

Oh ok thank you Dave. I love you site by the way.
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Nym90
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« Reply #2124 on: May 23, 2004, 12:19:29 pm »

cskendrick--

You should register to vote in the fantasy elections. We have a presidential election coming up in June. Here's the link...

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?board=13;action=display;threadid=2153;start=330
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