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  Talk Elections
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  2004 U.S. Presidential Election
  2004 User Predictions - Discussion
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Author Topic: 2004 User Predictions - Discussion  (Read 826842 times)
Aunty Entity
texasgurl24
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« Reply #2075 on: May 11, 2004, 03:10:33 pm »

i was pretty much just fooling around with the percentages.
i'm just interested in who wins a state,not by how much.


Heh.  I win.
if that makes you feel better.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #2076 on: May 11, 2004, 03:12:40 pm »

TEXAS POLL SHOWS BUSH WITH 54%
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classical liberal
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« Reply #2077 on: May 11, 2004, 03:18:48 pm »
« Edited: May 11, 2004, 03:19:34 pm by RightWingNut »

texasgurl-

If that electoral scenario comes about, this is a more likely percentage breakdown:
Map Percentage Code:     4          5               6                7            8
Percentage Range:        <50, 50.1-53.3, 53.3-56.6, 56.6-59.9, 60-100.

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classical liberal
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« Reply #2078 on: May 11, 2004, 03:27:39 pm »

Here's my prediction though:

Map Percentage Code:     4          5               6                7            8
Percentage Range:        <50, 50.1-53.3, 53.3-56.6, 56.6-59.9, 60-100.


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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #2079 on: May 11, 2004, 04:39:06 pm »

Didn't I already point out that Kerry can't win a CD in Nebraska?
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classical liberal
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« Reply #2080 on: May 11, 2004, 05:15:39 pm »

I think that he can.

Bush won NE-02 with 54% in 2000.  Considering that he's lost 10 points in neighboring states (SD, ID, 10 in OK) and that his administration just today announced new regulation on diesel feul for farm vehicles that will raise the price of diesel much more than the current raises in the price of gasoline from which I would say that he stands to loose more I contend that Bush has a good chance of loosing in the farming areas surrounding Omaha.  Plus with an 2% per year average liberalization of the suburbs I think that there's a very good chance that Bush will loose NE-02.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #2081 on: May 12, 2004, 09:55:52 am »

StatesRights, though asking 500 000 people is techically feasible, think about the costs...this is all statistical, an MoE of 3% in 95% of the cases is sufficient in most peoples minds.

The state-owned polling firm in Sweden, SCB, make 2 big polls a year, with a sample of about 9 000.
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??????????
StatesRights
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« Reply #2082 on: May 12, 2004, 10:19:38 am »

StatesRights, though asking 500 000 people is techically feasible, think about the costs...this is all statistical, an MoE of 3% in 95% of the cases is sufficient in most peoples minds.

The state-owned polling firm in Sweden, SCB, make 2 big polls a year, with a sample of about 9 000.

If telemarketers can use automated machines and call thousands of people at a clip then what would stop a rich person from funding such a poll?
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classical liberal
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« Reply #2083 on: May 12, 2004, 10:23:29 am »

Ask Soros.
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StatesRights
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« Reply #2084 on: May 12, 2004, 10:25:33 am »


I'd tell that liberal weenie to take his money and go to Europe.
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classical liberal
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« Reply #2085 on: May 12, 2004, 10:36:34 am »
« Edited: May 12, 2004, 10:36:46 am by RightWingNut »

That "liberal weenie" happens to have a sh**tload of money to spare.
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StatesRights
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« Reply #2086 on: May 12, 2004, 10:50:54 am »

That "liberal weenie" happens to have a sh**tload of money to spare.

Very true.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #2087 on: May 12, 2004, 11:50:13 am »

StatesRights, though asking 500 000 people is techically feasible, think about the costs...this is all statistical, an MoE of 3% in 95% of the cases is sufficient in most peoples minds.

The state-owned polling firm in Sweden, SCB, make 2 big polls a year, with a sample of about 9 000.

If telemarketers can use automated machines and call thousands of people at a clip then what would stop a rich person from funding such a poll?

It's not worth it. The increase in accuracy becomes less and less cost-effective, simply. So you'd pay a lot of money and get very little for it. You would always have the MoEs anyway.  
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StatesRights
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« Reply #2088 on: May 13, 2004, 01:24:42 am »

Yes, but I feel if you had a larger sample you could get a clearer picture. I'm sorry but 650 or whatever number they use out of 100 million voters doesn't really tell me to much that I could bet the farm on.
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John
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« Reply #2089 on: May 13, 2004, 02:52:45 pm »

DID YOU PEOPLE LOOK AT THE POLL IN OHIO
BUSH IS TROUBLE THERE IF HE DOSE NOT WHEN THEIR HE IS IN BIG
KERRY: 49%
BUSH: 42%
NADER: 2%
UD: 7%
WITHOUT NADER
KERRY: 50%
BUSH: 43%
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Platypus
hughento
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« Reply #2090 on: May 14, 2004, 09:27:06 pm »

My new one:

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/pred04.php?action=indpred&id=3536

Bush 275, Kerry 263.
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opebo
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« Reply #2091 on: May 14, 2004, 09:32:37 pm »


Nice one.  Poor Pennsylvania is an island in this one.  Scary.
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zachman
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« Reply #2092 on: May 14, 2004, 09:34:35 pm »

That was what NH is known for!
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opebo
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« Reply #2093 on: May 14, 2004, 09:35:48 pm »


Well at least you guys aren't landlocked.
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Lunar
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« Reply #2094 on: May 14, 2004, 09:44:18 pm »


How are Michigan and Minnesota tossups but not Iowa or New Hampshire?  Bush has to be +5 for those to be considered "tossups" and at this point, he will be winning in West Virginia, Ohio, and Oregon as well.
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Platypus
hughento
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« Reply #2095 on: May 15, 2004, 01:30:31 am »

I follow trends, rather then polls, in this file.

And I see a trend in MI going towards Bush.
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StatesRights
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« Reply #2096 on: May 15, 2004, 01:50:12 am »


Good but I'd flip WVA over to Bush. Several polls have him leading.
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Platypus
hughento
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« Reply #2097 on: May 15, 2004, 06:58:45 am »

his margin of lead i decreasing, IIRC-so it is a trend to Kerry.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #2098 on: May 15, 2004, 11:25:01 am »
« Edited: May 15, 2004, 11:25:28 am by Boss Tweed »

Bush Widens lead in Utah to 45%

http://deseretnews.com/dn/view/0,1249,595063379,00.html
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #2099 on: May 15, 2004, 11:27:11 am »





I wonder what Bush's post 9-11 approval rating was in Utah.  Probably 96-97%.
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