2004 User Predictions - Discussion

[© tweed]

Don't you love people that don't agree with Dems are seen as uneducated.  NASCAR is growing and is popular otside of the south too.

It is?

[© tweed]

NASCAR is a waste of gas.

[© tweed]

That makes the map look like this:



But, Polls have shown Kerru ahead in VT and WA, plus big leads for generic democrats in WI and MI, so the acuracy of the poll isn't all that great.

[© tweed]

Zogby's polls are usually inaccurate, and they lean left.

[© tweed]

Edwards is a moderate on social issues, while being the most left wing candidate on economic issues.
This is often called "Populism".

Yeah you're right about that.  
This is unrelated but who is Elliot Richardson? A friend of mine mentioned to me about him being a potential running mate for Kerry if he gets the nomination.

Do you mean Bill Richardson?

[© tweed]

The Question must be asked... If Kerry chooses Edwards as his running mate, how many Southern states suddenly come into play?  1? 3? All of them?

If Edwards and Kerry are on the same ticket you may get NC, SC, VA (the governor recently endorsed Kerry).  Florida and Georgia are tossups, so is Tennessee.  But thats it.

By the way, welcome to the forum.  

Even with Edwards I think Kerry loses every southern state.

[© tweed]

Florida leans Bush, Arkansas isn't solid Bush.

[© tweed]

Arkansas is a socially conservative state but the right economic message can win there.  I think Edwards would win Arkansas.

[© tweed]

Arkansas is very much like Lousiana, a Southern state that's similar to MS and AL, but for some reason more Democratic.

Economics

[© tweed]

I think the only Southern State that Kerry could carry (especially without Edwards) is Louisiana.   It had been trending Democratic (recent House, Senate and Gov wins), and unlike the rest of the South, is predominantly  Catholic.  I haven't seen any recent polls, though.

No recent polling.  Old polls show Bush trouncing Dem rivals, but times have changed.

[© tweed]

Aagh!  Kerry isn't leading in NH!  Please no!  Now I have to take another state out of his column on the prediction map.

[© tweed]

Not bad this time!  I'll make my own list:

Solid Republican

1. Texas
2. Mississippi
3. Kentucky
4. South Carolina
5. Georgia
6. Alabama

Leans Republican

1. Virginia
2. Florida
3. West Virginia
4. Missouri
5. North Carolina (Only in play if Edwards is at the TOP of the ticket)
6. Vrginia (Only in play if Warner is VP selection)
7. Louisiana (Lean Dem if Edwards is the nominee)
8. Arkansas (Lean Dem if Edwards is the nominee)

Leans Democratic

(Empty)

Solid Democratic

1. Maryland

[© tweed]

UPDATED Kerry v. Bush:



Bush 276 to Kerry 262

It actually looks like the election favors Kerry about now, but I can't jinx it!

[© tweed]

the average prediction went to 276 Dem to 262 Bush.

[© tweed]

Sounds about right, firefly.

[© tweed]

Run Roy Run!

BTW, I like the 'draftmoore04' URL.

[© tweed]

Agreed.

Go to my forum, we can discuss the web design a little.

[© tweed]

If your going by current polling NH is solid Kerry, 53-38% in the latest poll I believe.

[© tweed]

alright guys, i entered my map.  let me know what you think.

You just took the 2000 map and switched NH...that's no fun

[© tweed]

I have my map ready. This is what I think will happen. Democrats are fooling themselves.

I don't see your prediction.

[© tweed]

Link doesn't work

[© tweed]

I see it now, I didn't type in the speace before.

You ask me how to post an image, and then you say that my Hurricanes suck?  Try again

You do it like this:

put [ img] and [ /img ] tags around the web adress of the image you want to post, minus the spaces.

[© tweed]

Any chance of California ever going Republican again?

Not in this election.  Even though Gore "only" won it by 11%, that's still a 650,000 vote swing needed to sway it to Bush.

[© tweed]

Who knows, maybe I'm completely nuts.

yes, I think you are

[© tweed]

We're on our 100th page of this thread!