2004 User Predictions - Discussion

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I used to think that... but Oregon seems to be heading rightward... as is (to a lesser extent) California (which will remain a Democrat state). Washington is politically more like BC than any US state...

[minionofmidas]

Bit a both...It's the Coasts and part of the center-east vs. the rest.

[khirkhib]

I was thinking of how a Kerry-Richardson ticket might do.  If it was supported by McCain it would easily get the south west Arizona and New Mexico.  It would put Colorado back into play and may be able to keep Florida and Missouri interesting.  It may have no effect in Minnesota or Wisconsin.  Here is a possible 269 split.
Kerry-Richardson: Hawaii, Washington, Oregon, California, New Mexico, Arizona, Florida, Missouri, Illinois, Michigan, West Virginia, Maryland, Deleware, New Jersey, New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, Conn, RI, Mass and DC Bush-Cheney: the rest

[Gustaf]

I was thinking of how a Kerry-Richardson ticket might do.  If it was supported by McCain it would easily get the south west Arizona and New Mexico.  It would put Colorado back into play and may be able to keep Florida and Missouri interesting.  It may have no effect in Minnesota or Wisconsin.  Here is a possible 269 split.
Kerry-Richardson: Hawaii, Washington, Oregon, California, New Mexico, Arizona, Florida, Missouri, Illinois, Michigan, West Virginia, Maryland, Deleware, New Jersey, New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, Conn, RI, Mass and DC Bush-Cheney: the rest

A Kerry-Richardson ticket probably won't be though. Your map is possible though, but I don't think WV will go for Kerry.

[© tweed]

That map looks highly off.

[Gustaf]

That map looks highly off.

Yes, it's unlikely, since a lot of tossups we'd expect to go Dem goes Rep and vice versa. It isn't insane or impossible though.

[opebo]

The map isn't terrible, but Missouri is definitely trending Republican.

[Ben.]

I was thinking of how a Kerry-Richardson ticket might do.  If it was supported by McCain it would easily get the south west Arizona and New Mexico.  It would put Colorado back into play and may be able to keep Florida and Missouri interesting.  It may have no effect in Minnesota or Wisconsin.  Here is a possible 269 split.
Kerry-Richardson: Hawaii, Washington, Oregon, California, New Mexico, Arizona, Florida, Missouri, Illinois, Michigan, West Virginia, Maryland, Deleware, New Jersey, New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, Conn, RI, Mass and DC Bush-Cheney: the rest

A Kerry-Richardson ticket probably won't be though. Your map is possible though, but I don't think WV will go for Kerry.

While I reckon a Kerry/Richardson ticket could gain NM and make AZ very competitive beyond that I doubt it would help the Dems… it would probably do little in MO and in the Midwest it would have no effect and it wouldn’t help the Dems in OH, PA or WV… don’t get me wrong… Richardson would have been GREAT! With Edwards at the top of the ticket (a DNC version of what Cheney was for Bush in 2000)… with Kerry he brings little and to all intents and purposes is just another moderately liberal, Washington insider Dem…    

[Gustaf]

I was thinking of how a Kerry-Richardson ticket might do.  If it was supported by McCain it would easily get the south west Arizona and New Mexico.  It would put Colorado back into play and may be able to keep Florida and Missouri interesting.  It may have no effect in Minnesota or Wisconsin.  Here is a possible 269 split.
Kerry-Richardson: Hawaii, Washington, Oregon, California, New Mexico, Arizona, Florida, Missouri, Illinois, Michigan, West Virginia, Maryland, Deleware, New Jersey, New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, Conn, RI, Mass and DC Bush-Cheney: the rest

A Kerry-Richardson ticket probably won't be though. Your map is possible though, but I don't think WV will go for Kerry.

While I reckon a Kerry/Richardson ticket could gain NM and make AZ very competitive beyond that I doubt it would help the Dems… it would probably do little in MO and in the Midwest it would have no effect and it wouldn’t help the Dems in OH, PA or WV… don’t get me wrong… Richardson would have been GREAT! With Edwards at the top of the ticket (a DNC version of what Cheney was for Bush in 2000)… with Kerry he brings little and to all intents and purposes is just another moderately liberal, Washington insider Dem…    

I thought Richardson was governor of NM, that doesn't sound too Washington to me?

[khirkhib]

I just wanted to put out a model for an even 269. Though your right a lot of the states will be flipped from what I indicated.  I just wonder what will the really effect of the Hispanic vote be and not just in this election but in future elections since both parties are still trying to capture that vote right now.  Richardson's speech after the State of the Union was great - if he did run I think he could really animate the urban vote.  http://www.census.gov/geo/www/mapGallery/RHOriginPD-1990.html  Hey it might even make Texas a competive vote.

[Gustaf]

I just wanted to put out a model for an even 269. Though your right a lot of the states will be flipped from what I indicated.  I just wonder what will the really effect of the Hispanic vote be and not just in this election but in future elections since both parties are still trying to capture that vote right now.  Richardson's speech after the State of the Union was great - if he did run I think he could really animate the urban vote.  http://www.census.gov/geo/www/mapGallery/RHOriginPD-1990.html  Hey it might even make Texas a competive vote.

One of these days Texas WILL be competitive, I think...the question is just whether it's in 10 years or, say, 30.

[The Vorlon]

I just wanted to put out a model for an even 269. Though your right a lot of the states will be flipped from what I indicated.  I just wonder what will the really effect of the Hispanic vote be and not just in this election but in future elections since both parties are still trying to capture that vote right now.  Richardson's speech after the State of the Union was great - if he did run I think he could really animate the urban vote.  http://www.census.gov/geo/www/mapGallery/RHOriginPD-1990.html  Hey it might even make Texas a competive vote.

One of these days Texas WILL be competitive, I think...the question is just whether it's in 10 years or, say, 30.

In the past 2 election cycles the District Of Columbia has become .6% more Republican.  

The district will thus be "in play" in the year 2408.... if not sooner....

[Ben.]

I was thinking of how a Kerry-Richardson ticket might do.  If it was supported by McCain it would easily get the south west Arizona and New Mexico.  It would put Colorado back into play and may be able to keep Florida and Missouri interesting.  It may have no effect in Minnesota or Wisconsin.  Here is a possible 269 split.
Kerry-Richardson: Hawaii, Washington, Oregon, California, New Mexico, Arizona, Florida, Missouri, Illinois, Michigan, West Virginia, Maryland, Deleware, New Jersey, New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, Conn, RI, Mass and DC Bush-Cheney: the rest

A Kerry-Richardson ticket probably won't be though. Your map is possible though, but I don't think WV will go for Kerry.

While I reckon a Kerry/Richardson ticket could gain NM and make AZ very competitive beyond that I doubt it would help the Dems… it would probably do little in MO and in the Midwest it would have no effect and it wouldn’t help the Dems in OH, PA or WV… don’t get me wrong… Richardson would have been GREAT! With Edwards at the top of the ticket (a DNC version of what Cheney was for Bush in 2000)… with Kerry he brings little and to all intents and purposes is just another moderately liberal, Washington insider Dem…    

I thought Richardson was governor of NM, that doesn't sound too Washington to me?

Yes... but he was energy sec under Clinton and he has a lot experiance working in Washington... added to that he is of a similar age and he is not the most inspiring of Dems... two middle aged, male, carear pols wouldnt be a great idea... you need a moderate with some non-political experaince who would play well with the moderates and independets... Warner, Nelson and Edwards all seem like good choices to me...      

[khirkhib]

So if their is that 269-269 tie the house will get to choose the president instead of the supreme court.

http://www.washingtondispatch.com/printer_8453.shtml.html

[timroman]

That would suck if it was 269-269

[timroman]

I see a few are having quick conversations to boost their numbers.  Kind of sad, at least most of mine have been actual policy oriented.  Not all but most.

Hey, DarthKosh, you're a YabbGod all of a sudden. Just b/c of all the pyramids... I have been tricked into participating in your power game and unwittingly contributed to your success. But not anymore...

Who was that comment directed at?

At DarthKosh, but I could sy the same of you, I see now! Actually, I benefited from the pyramid games myself, so I will sneak into a god position when you least expect it... *insane evil laughter*

what the heck

[Gustaf]

I see a few are having quick conversations to boost their numbers.  Kind of sad, at least most of mine have been actual policy oriented.  Not all but most.

Hey, DarthKosh, you're a YabbGod all of a sudden. Just b/c of all the pyramids... I have been tricked into participating in your power game and unwittingly contributed to your success. But not anymore...

Who was that comment directed at?

At DarthKosh, but I could sy the same of you, I see now! Actually, I benefited from the pyramid games myself, so I will sneak into a god position when you least expect it... *insane evil laughter*

what the heck

Lol, how did you dig that up?

[Ben.]

If the Electoral College deadlocks the House would almost certainly re-elect Bush. Currently 30 states' delegations have Republican majorities with two states evenly split and one (South Dakota) vacant. Since each state gets one vote it would seem unlikely the Democrats could pull it off even if they retake the House as a result of the 2004 elections.

Welcome NewFederalist, and your right if the election is thrown to the house Bush will probably win... though the republican majority in the House and the senate could well narrow... however it will be tough for Dems to retake either...but they can do it 4/1 as opposed to 3/1 for the GOP retaining control and 2/1 for no majority... but hey I not really a gambling man...  
   

[© tweed]

I see a few are having quick conversations to boost their numbers.  Kind of sad, at least most of mine have been actual policy oriented.  Not all but most.

Hey, DarthKosh, you're a YabbGod all of a sudden. Just b/c of all the pyramids... I have been tricked into participating in your power game and unwittingly contributed to your success. But not anymore...

Who was that comment directed at?

At DarthKosh, but I could sy the same of you, I see now! Actually, I benefited from the pyramid games myself, so I will sneak into a god position when you least expect it... *insane evil laughter*

what the heck

Lol, how did you dig that up?

Remember when we used to build pyramids?

[MasterJedi]

Well I'll be too young to vote when the election comes around (17) but I'll get most of my family and neighbors to vote for Bush!

He has to win for the country to continue down the right course and to win the war on terrorism.

We all need to ask the question, who does UBL want to win the election?

[12th Doctor]

Well I'll be too young to vote when the election comes around (17) but I'll get most of my family and neighbors to vote for Bush!

He has to win for the country to continue down the right course and to win the war on terrorism.

We all need to ask the question, who does UBL want to win the election?

Hey, welcome.  Feel free to checkout the other folders and treads.  The more posters the better.    Take a look at our fantasy election, as well.

[TheWildCard]

Well I'll be too young to vote when the election comes around (17) but I'll get most of my family and neighbors to vote for Bush!

He has to win for the country to continue down the right course and to win the war on terrorism.

We all need to ask the question, who does UBL want to win the election?

Welcome to the Forums MasterJedi!(I always knew the Jedis were Republicans! )

Make sure to check out the fantasy election forum as well!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

We all need to ask the question, who does UBL want to win the election?

He doesn't care. In his f***** up mind ALL Americans are "The Enemy"...

[Platypus]

Who cares about who he wants to win the election.

Either way, I think he'd prefer someone with little previous military experience who goes off on unrelated wars that cause more terrorism then a decorated war hero who will get straight to the point and kill him rather then invade a country with the end result of making the world a more dangerous place

[opebo]

We all need to ask the question, who does UBL want to win the election?

He doesn't care. In his f***** up mind ALL Americans are "The Enemy"...

It depends if he wants us to roll over now, or if he wants to fight it out.  Kerry would roll over Spanish style, Bush would fight.  Which does UBL want?