2004 User Predictions - Discussion

[Filuwaúrdjan]

NH and ME will trend into solidly Democratic states.
The midwest will trend GOP but will still be in play.
Virginia will trend Dem.

Agree's... Basically East v West IS replacing North v South

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I used to think that... but Oregon seems to be heading rightward... as is (to a lesser extent) California (which will remain a Democrat state). Washington is politically more like BC than any US state...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

We all need to ask the question, who does UBL want to win the election?

He doesn't care. In his f***** up mind ALL Americans are "The Enemy"...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

He wants to set up an Islamic Caliphate. And kill everyone else.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Not a bad prediction, Lunar. I disagree about Colorado, but you give a good reason for why.
Welcome to the forum!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Carolina's are possible upsets... both will depend on jobs.
Now if Kerry picks Edwards, he could make him spend all his time in the South Atlantic

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Not bad... Bush won't get 60% in Arkansas... other than that...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

LBJ was Senate Majority leader in the '50's.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Won't happen

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If their is a God in heaven he will! lol

"Keep hope alive"

How about all red except for Utah, Nebraska, Wyoming and Idaho?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Interesting article... although it could also be claimed that as Duke's voters in Norther LA were mostly...er... rednecks (no offense intended)... and not exactly affluent, they might have been swayed by Blanco's negative ads, attack Jindal on healthcare.

BTW turnout was sharply down from 1999. It's also possible that the "Dukeists" didn't bother to vote (a Woman against an Asian).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

"Just trying to see if I could affect any of the median results with my one entry."

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Tennessee is always considered in play, because the state is still divided on Civil War lines, making it winnable for either party if they throw enough resources at it.
Whether Kerry (or Bush for that matter) will is another matter.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It has a very strong Republican edge.  This means that if Kerry spends here, Bush will counter that and make Kerry's spending almost useless.

It's probably more likely to go for Bush than Kerry, but it's hard to be certain...
Basically if rural Mid TN can outvote rural East TN Kerry wins. If not Bush wins.
How many swing voters exist in TN?
4? Maybe 5?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Aside from the fact that I think TN leans heavily Republican in any election,

Since when? TN is close at most levels.

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But they [people in rural Mid TN] will vote for Kerry anyway... he's got a big "D" next to his name... East TN is the same but GOP...
If either candidate got under 45% I'd be suprised...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The state has two GOP senators.  Its a lot like Missouri - close, but definitely tips towards conservatism.  It has more Dem Representatives than we do, but votes slightly more GOP presidentially.

Republican presidential candidates usually win from 45-55% of the vote in TN, while Democrats have not broken 50% since Jimmy Carter in 1976.  So the state is clearly a strong GOP lean.

You said it was "heavily Republican", a statement that is untrue.
It's not a good idea to generalise about a state as divided as Tennessee... some of it is extremly conservative, some of it is extremly populist...
---
BTW, although it currently has two GOP Senators, Frist is retiring in 2006 and the Dems have a good chance at picking up the seat (hopefully with Harold Ford jr)... and Lamar Alexander is a "wet" (ie: moderate. The phrase is from the UK) Republican.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Opebo I would tend to agree that Tennessee leans solidly to Bush in November… however it is a (very) Probable Bush rather than a solid Bush IMHO… I think that Tennessee is not tending towards either party directly, the growing populations in Nashville, Humboldt and Memphis should help the moderate Dems and more generally there is still a solid base for the Democratic Party but as Al said this is more than countered by the populations in the east of the state and cities such as Tullahoma, Chattanooga and Knoxville, ultimately I think Tennessee will remain a moderately GOP leaning state however this does not mean it is unattainable for the Democrats in the near future, for Kerry I agree it is very much out of reach, but for Harold Ford in 2006 (Please GOD!!!) and perhaps in 2008 (depending on the situation) it will be winnable for the Democrats in a similar way to how PA is winnable for the GOP this November… actually in terms of how both party’s stand TN is a lot like PA reversed, PA has a strong, solid conservative “T” in its centre and GOP victories rest on big turnout here and solid showings in the more moderate suburban areas around Philly and the “blue collar” districts in the west of the state… Likewise Democrat wins in TN depend on a solid turnout in the rural, populist interior of the state, boosted by large turnouts from the minority populations in places such as Memphis and the west of the state and more generally winning in the suburban areas in the north and west of the state… on balance in a match up between generic candidates I’d say both where tossups and will continue to be so imho… however in this election I’d say it would be much easier for the GOP to win PA than for Kerry to take TN…            

Bush is *probably* more likely to take PA than for Kerry to take TN, but I have both as "NCF" due to the politics of turnout in both states that make them unpredictable.
(In fact if I didn't have them both as NCF I would be going against my methodology).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

thanks it is a good one, more fun to fill in the states too

http://www.grayraven.com/ec

Yeah grayraven is pretty good.  I like it better than Edwards' but not as much as I like Leip's.  

Suck-up! Btw, in 5 minutes is 2004! And they say "where America goes the world follows"... Not this time! I will be waiting for you to catch up! Happy new year everybody!

It is 2004 in about 5 hours here.  and I genuinely do like Leip's better thanthe other ones.

5 hours and 13 minutes until 2004.

I guess we are both on the east coast.  

that is why I have a blue pennsylvania under my name.

That's true.  I guess I just can't put 2 and 2 together.

The two of you are building another pyramid!

And you are contributing, Gustaf!  thanks!

You're welcome!

No problem.

But I insist.

How big do these pyramids get?

It depends on the number of posts.

I don't think that the pyramids get much better than this...see that solid line.

There is always room for improvement.

Not really.  Look closely.

weee

Every time I do this another quote disappears,t hus the pyramids are not improved.

You're right, they don't get any better...

Those were the days...

Nostalgic?

Hell yeah!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

DcPoliticalReport.com has California, Maryland, NY, Wash, Oregon, all within the MOE for Kerry. That's scary you have to admit.

But Bush's lead in NC is also within MoE

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A poll from Louisiana:

Bush: 51.7%
Kerry: 37.6%

Meaningless... utterly meaningless... most polls from Louisiana are utter bullsh*t (LA is a very hard state to poll).
And when a poll is done by a group called: "Harris Deville and Associates/Southern Media and Opinion"...
---
LA remains NCF

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'd say your being a tad bit optimistic with NM... but other than that it looks sane

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I just wanted to point this out because I had a startling revelation in History Class today, is it me or does General/President Andrew Jackson and Senetor John Kerry look similar?

They keep pointing out Kerry's likeness to Kennedy, maybe Jackson would be a better idea, lol.

Siege

It might help in Tennessee

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yea landslide why would anybody in their right mind vote for Kerry. Kerry will just let saddam go and give Iraq back to him. Plus he will raise taxes for all!

How old are you? I'm guessing about 12. I strongly recommend going to your local library and educating yourself.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Not most, but many.  I think PA will be within 2-3% (no matter who wins) so if they vote for Nader, that could be more than enough to swing it to Bush.

Western PA in Pop-u-list coal mining nation is a waaaaay different world.

Philly liberal are WAY different from Pittsburgh liberal, your right about that Miami.  Western PA is going to have a hard time swollowing Kerry, I'm not saying that they won't vote Kerry, but the culture clash between the regional personalities and Kerry's could be enough for Bush to prevail in the Pittsburgh area.  If that happens then PA is Bush country.

Dunno 'bout that actually... Remember: Dukakis did very, very well in SW PA...
I'm worried about outer-suburban Philly though...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

EV Scenarios, by Bush approval rating

Bush
Approval   Nader EV   Kerry EV   Bush EV
71%   0   0   538
70%   0   3   535
65%   0   3   535
60%   0   19   519
55%   0   168   370
54%   0   168   370
53%   0   189   349
52%   0   221   317
51%   0   231   307
50%   0   248   290
49%   0   264   274
48%   0   300   238
47%   0   319   219
46%   0   359   179
45%   0   359   179
40%   0   454   84
35%   0   486   52
30%   0   526   12
25%   0   538   0
20%   0   538   0
15%   3   535   0
10%   50   488   0
5%   231   307   0
0%   264   274   0

Good work!
Nice to see you back, BTW