2004 User Predictions - Discussion

[Gustaf]

Also, a new Wisconsin poll is out, showing Bush trailing a generic Democrat 38-54!

[Gustaf]

Hello All:

Its been some time since I last posted and a lot has happened.  I think I am ready to say that Howard Dean is probably finished.  But my problem right now is who I am going to support.  I am not to wild about Kerry right now, Edwards is a conservative democrat with a middle-class upbringing, and I think Clark MUST be on the ticket in order for the Dems to beat Bush.  

Right now the media has shifted its attention to Kerry's so-called ties to special interests. (Any information from you good people about this topic, regardless of party affiliation, is helpful).  But while the media is attacking Kerry on the subject of special interests, they are contradicting themselves by supporting Bush; an embodiment of special interests (e.g. the oil industry, Halliburton, Clear Channel, News Corporation, to name a few).  

Just keep this fact (NOT OPINION, this is not coming from Fantasy land) in mind when you support Bush.  I know I will get attacked on this subject but I don't care, I am breaking my silence and I am happy and proud to do it.  

While I am not clear about who I will support for the nomination, I will say that the Dems need Clark more than he needs them.  

Sleep tight everybody and be sure to vote.

S2DM
 

Yeah, yeah - corporations = special interests.  Wrong!  America in case  you haven't noticed, is a capitalist country.  The only thing a corporation ever tried to do to me was sell me some appealing good or service at a reasonable price, or conversely, hire me and pay me money!  Wow - how evil.

As long as corporations keep to their business, it isn't much to wory about. But they are people as well, and they have interests. This is apparent in the Swedish business organization, which is run by stupid bureaucrats, rather than competent business men.

[Gustaf]

Actually very few miners switched to the GOP.
What killed Gore was the fact that a lot stayed at home, add that to the Steel Workers switching to Bush (but they will probably "come home" this year), and a higher turnout amoung Republicans (37% of the WV electorate) and that was that.

I was familier with the WVGS' website, but the only party affected by Mountain Top Mining is the Mountain Party.

Why would Coal Miners vote Democrat?  The Dems are ecological nuts who would close coal power generation if they could.  Personally I'm pro-coal.

Why would you be pro-coal? Nuclear power is the way to go, imo.

[Gustaf]

UPDATED Kerry v. Bush:


Bush 270 to Kerry 268

That's a tough loss...

[Gustaf]

Actually very few miners switched to the GOP.
What killed Gore was the fact that a lot stayed at home, add that to the Steel Workers switching to Bush (but they will probably "come home" this year), and a higher turnout amoung Republicans (37% of the WV electorate) and that was that.

I was familier with the WVGS' website, but the only party affected by Mountain Top Mining is the Mountain Party.

Why would Coal Miners vote Democrat?  The Dems are ecological nuts who would close coal power generation if they could.  Personally I'm pro-coal.

Why would you be pro-coal? Nuclear power is the way to go, imo.

Oh I like nuclear power, but coal really is best - its cheap, easily available, and the one thing it has over nuclear is it is terror-proof.  They can blow up coal plants and all we have to do is build another one.  If they blow up a nuke plant we loose a few counties at least.

But it's bad for the environment and it is limited, in the sense that it will run out at some point, and definitely get more expensive.

[Gustaf]

Actually very few miners switched to the GOP.
What killed Gore was the fact that a lot stayed at home, add that to the Steel Workers switching to Bush (but they will probably "come home" this year), and a higher turnout amoung Republicans (37% of the WV electorate) and that was that.

I was familier with the WVGS' website, but the only party affected by Mountain Top Mining is the Mountain Party.

Why would Coal Miners vote Democrat?  The Dems are ecological nuts who would close coal power generation if they could.  Personally I'm pro-coal.

Why would you be pro-coal? Nuclear power is the way to go, imo.

Oh I like nuclear power, but coal really is best - its cheap, easily available, and the one thing it has over nuclear is it is terror-proof.  They can blow up coal plants and all we have to do is build another one.  If they blow up a nuke plant we loose a few counties at least.

But it's bad for the environment and it is limited, in the sense that it will run out at some point, and definitely get more expensive.

Yeah in about 200 years.  

Well, i the long perspective...but maybe you don't care about that?

[Gustaf]

Actually it's at least 3000.
200-400 on current reserves.

Are you attnding the fantasy debate, RP?

[Gustaf]

No, I'm going to read the transcripts... but I would like the following question to be answered:

"What measures do you intend to take to preserve Coal Mining communities?"

Lol..I'll ask that for you, if possible...

[Gustaf]

Thanks

You're welcome, the question has been asked, and these are the answers so far:

 I would relax environmental policies inorder to allow Coal plants to catch-up with current standards rather than having to shut down.  Clinton/Gore hurt the coal industry by creating unrealistic goals for the industry and I would...
supersoulty: relax that.  done
ofthisnation: Seantor, your rebuttal.
Nym90: I feel that coal mining communities have the same needs as all of the rest of our country. I think that they want decent education, and an improving economy. Right now they are being left behind by the globalizing economy, and...
Nym90: they need to have some degree of protection in our trade policies. Relaxing environmental standards would only hurt the quality of life for all of us. Let's not wreck the environment that our children depend upon.
Nym90: ok, done.
ofthisnation: Governor, your rebuttal, if you have one.
supersoulty: Yes...

[Gustaf]

Have to say, thanks to the great folk at Zogby, the Muslim vote in the USA is trending more Democratic now, not a majority yet, but there are many angry people out there. The renegade Catholic vote may also swing back to the Dems, of course thats just hearsay, My (Catholic)relatives in California voted Bush last time round because of the abortion issue, but that is no longer an issue with them. As they stem from a Labour voting British Catholic family- i hope they back the Dems again!

The Muslims are not going to tip any state one way or the other.  They're simply too few and too unlikely to vote.  Perhaps afraid of John Ashcroft!

Do you think of that as a good thing?

[Gustaf]

Have to say, thanks to the great folk at Zogby, the Muslim vote in the USA is trending more Democratic now, not a majority yet, but there are many angry people out there. The renegade Catholic vote may also swing back to the Dems, of course thats just hearsay, My (Catholic)relatives in California voted Bush last time round because of the abortion issue, but that is no longer an issue with them. As they stem from a Labour voting British Catholic family- i hope they back the Dems again!

The Muslims are not going to tip any state one way or the other.  They're simply too few and too unlikely to vote.  Perhaps afraid of John Ashcroft!

Do you think of that as a good thing?

I think he was joking in that last part.  I hope he was joking on that last part.  He has a point though.  The only state where the Muslims are going to have a measurible affect on the election is Michigan.

You never know with Opebo...

Hey, that rhymes!

[Gustaf]

And I'm the one that chose "realpolitik" as my user name...

Lol...you're not as cynical as he is.

[Gustaf]

Reasons why Kerry will win Ohio:

1. Many-a-job lost in OH since Bush took office
2. Governor Taft's unpopularity
3. High Muslim population

I don't feel like retyping, so I'll just copy and paste what I said earlier....

The only place where there is a significant Muslim population in Ohio is Cinncinati and that is a BLACK Muslim population.  They wouldn't vote for Bush anyway.  Gov. Taft is unpopular because he RAISED taxes, I don't see how that plays well for the Democrats seeing as the Republican legislature is the group that is most pissed-off by Taft's actions.

Second, I can't believe that you guys acctually think Bush is so aweful that he will harass muslim voters or fake Bin Laden's capture.  That's not a joke, those are some serious accusations.

The only one to suggest that is Opebo, I have, for one, contradicted it.

[Gustaf]

Reasons why Kerry will win Ohio:

1. Many-a-job lost in OH since Bush took office
2. Governor Taft's unpopularity
3. High Muslim population

I don't feel like retyping, so I'll just copy and paste what I said earlier....

The only place where there is a significant Muslim population in Ohio is Cinncinati and that is a BLACK Muslim population.  They wouldn't vote for Bush anyway.  Gov. Taft is unpopular because he RAISED taxes, I don't see how that plays well for the Democrats seeing as the Republican legislature is the group that is most pissed-off by Taft's actions.

Second, I can't believe that you guys acctually think Bush is so aweful that he will harass muslim voters or fake Bin Laden's capture.  That's not a joke, those are some serious accusations.

1. Provide a census result showing that a large portion o Ohio's muslim population voted for Gore.

2. Opebo, a Republican, suggested Bush might fake UBL's captured, and I agreed, he might.

Obebo is a nazi and he probably think it was a good move, my issue is with you and how a rational person could think such a thing.  Let me find some data for the first.

HE claims to be a classic liberal though...

[Gustaf]

True, though he never really talks about social issues much, so maybe he is more liberal on those, but just emphasizes his conservative positions.

He's said that he "certainly" isn't a Christian, which says something.

[Gustaf]

Reasons why Kerry will win Ohio:

1. Many-a-job lost in OH since Bush took office
2. Governor Taft's unpopularity
3. High Muslim population

I don't feel like retyping, so I'll just copy and paste what I said earlier....

The only place where there is a significant Muslim population in Ohio is Cinncinati and that is a BLACK Muslim population.  They wouldn't vote for Bush anyway.  Gov. Taft is unpopular because he RAISED taxes, I don't see how that plays well for the Democrats seeing as the Republican legislature is the group that is most pissed-off by Taft's actions.

Second, I can't believe that you guys acctually think Bush is so aweful that he will harass muslim voters or fake Bin Laden's capture.  That's not a joke, those are some serious accusations.

1. Provide a census result showing that a large portion o Ohio's muslim population voted for Gore.

2. Opebo, a Republican, suggested Bush might fake UBL's captured, and I agreed, he might.

Obebo is a nazi and he probably think it was a good move, my issue is with you and how a rational person could think such a thing.  Let me find some data for the first.

Ok.. I guess I should respond to this.  I am, as others have said in this thread, rather cynical and do believe in 'realpolitic', etc.  But I think its a bit much to call me a Nazi!  I think there's a big difference in being a bit Nixonian (and an admirer of Kissinger) and being a Nazi.  
Seriously though I never thought Bush would really fake bin laden's capture, I was just hypothesizing.  But I think the reason it would never happen is more because it wouldn't work than because its 'wrong'.

What you're missing here is that THE REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE has called you a Nazi. The LEAST you can do to protest is adopt a red avatar...

Good to see you engaging in this despite the fact that you're not allowed to vote!

[Gustaf]

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/pres_college-kerry.htm

larry sabato has a new EC map out.

I notice he has Ohio as 'probable for Bush'!

He only has New Hampshire changing hands...how is Arkansas "very competitive"??

[Gustaf]

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/pres_college-kerry.htm

larry sabato has a new EC map out.

I notice he has Ohio as 'probable for Bush'!

He only has New Hampshire changing hands...how is Arkansas "very competitive"??

Yeah its a bit odd.. I think Arkansas is even more solid Bush than Missouri.  And New Hampshire seems likely to go Republican.  Actualy its a pretty odd map, but I'd like to know why he think Ohio is solid.

It doesn't seem to trustworthy, imo. Also, he only has 2 categories, so he isn't saying that Ohio is solid, only that it isn't "very competitive", like Arkansas...

[Gustaf]

Yeah...that's what I said, I think...

? you looking at same map?  Ohio is probably Bush where as Arkansas is listed as more competitive.

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/pres_college-kerry.htm

larry sabato has a new EC map out.

I notice he has Ohio as 'probable for Bush'!

He only has New Hampshire changing hands...how is Arkansas "very competitive"??

Yeah its a bit odd.. I think Arkansas is even more solid Bush than Missouri.  And New Hampshire seems likely to go Republican.  Actualy its a pretty odd map, but I'd like to know why he think Ohio is solid.

It doesn't seem to trustworthy, imo. Also, he only has 2 categories, so he isn't saying that Ohio is solid, only that it isn't "very competitive", like Arkansas...

[Gustaf]

Edwards won't be next to drop, I think Dean will be, he is way out at the back and has only performed well in Caucuses.

Dean should be the next to drop, in fact he should have droppes after NH, but now Dean might never drop, so therefore I think Edwards might well be the next to drop out. He's spent.

[Gustaf]

Dean has thw second most delegates, somehow.

It's a mirage caused by all the endorsements he got early on.  Many of the endorsers were superdelegates.  They are not committed and can vote for whoever they want.  I doubt that all of them would even vote for Dean if the convention were tomorrow.

Exactly, that is indeed the reason for Dean's hign delegate number.

[Gustaf]

Dean won't ever drop out...I think he will stay in the race and try to be drafted at the convention.

At the risk of violating profanity rules of this site, Dean really has shown what a jerk he is by reneging on his promise to withdraw from the race if he didn't win in Wisconsin.  Now who would want a president who acts like that??

Don't worry, there are no rules, lol... We've seen worse than the word "jerk", I can assure you of that.

[Gustaf]

Dean won't ever drop out...I think he will stay in the race and try to be drafted at the convention.

At the risk of violating profanity rules of this site, Dean really has shown what a jerk he is by reneging on his promise to withdraw from the race if he didn't win in Wisconsin.  Now who would want a president who acts like that??

Don't worry, there are no rules, lol... We've seen worse than the word "jerk", I can assure you of that.

Hm...i forgot to say welcome to the forum....Welcome to the forum!

[Gustaf]

Reasons why Kerry will win Ohio:

1. Many-a-job lost in OH since Bush took office
2. Governor Taft's unpopularity
3. High Muslim population

I don't feel like retyping, so I'll just copy and paste what I said earlier....

The only place where there is a significant Muslim population in Ohio is Cinncinati and that is a BLACK Muslim population.  They wouldn't vote for Bush anyway.  Gov. Taft is unpopular because he RAISED taxes, I don't see how that plays well for the Democrats seeing as the Republican legislature is the group that is most pissed-off by Taft's actions.

Second, I can't believe that you guys acctually think Bush is so aweful that he will harass muslim voters or fake Bin Laden's capture.  That's not a joke, those are some serious accusations.

1. Provide a census result showing that a large portion o Ohio's muslim population voted for Gore.

2. Opebo, a Republican, suggested Bush might fake UBL's captured, and I agreed, he might.

Obebo is a nazi and he probably think it was a good move, my issue is with you and how a rational person could think such a thing.  Let me find some data for the first.

Ok.. I guess I should respond to this.  I am, as others have said in this thread, rather cynical and do believe in 'realpolitic', etc.  But I think its a bit much to call me a Nazi!  I think there's a big difference in being a bit Nixonian (and an admirer of Kissinger) and being a Nazi.  
Seriously though I never thought Bush would really fake bin laden's capture, I was just hypothesizing.  But I think the reason it would never happen is more because it wouldn't work than because its 'wrong'.

What you're missing here is that THE REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE has called you a Nazi. The LEAST you can do to protest is adopt a red avatar...

Good to see you engaging in this despite the fact that you're not allowed to vote!

I didn't tell him to change his voting behaviour...

lol, no, but it was the clear implication of your post...

[Gustaf]

Yep, WV is for Bush so Kerry doesn't win.

I think with high unEmp rates, a high muslim population, and an unpopular Republican Governor, Ohio will swing to Kerry.

Kerry being from MA hurts him in NH, if anything.

LA is more socially conservative than AR.

Neither LA or AR were blow-outs in 2000, the conservatism, or at least the Republicanism of the South is exaggerated. Not to say that Kerry will win any southern states though...