2004 User Predictions - Discussion

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Yep, the NE-02

How?  Gore didn't even win a Nebraska county in 2000, and lost NE-02 by 18.4%.

Kerry ain't winning crap in Nebraska give that thought up. Maine might split, maybe.

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Just randomly chiming in here after seeing lots of folks' predictions.  Just my two cents, but I think a lot of people are "missing" some standard, well known polling issues...

1) Third party candidates poll roughly double what they'll actually get.  The other half migrate to the major candidate most closely matching their's... In this case, about 50% of the polled Nader support will go to Kerry.

2) Undecideds go heavily (about 70-80%) to the challenger.

This means that almost every state polling even or with Bush up by 1-2% is actually, likely, leaning Kerry.  Zogby said some of this (more simply) on his site yesterday, and he's absolutely right.  This is Kerry's race to lose.  Due to these polling "issues" Kerry is likely ahead in all of the Gore states plus NH, OH, FL and AR... maybe more!  Obviously, many states are close; Bush coulde easily win... and by a lot... with only a slight surge.  But right now, Kerry is ahead... significantly... if one interprets the poll numbers properly.

Having any idea who is going to win this thing in May is like sitting back and trying to predict who is going to the World Series. You can make a lot of good guesses but will probably be wrong in the end. We still have conventions and debates yet to go! Thats a lot of stuff still a long time off.

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I like to look at state polls more then one big national poll. Yes it looks bad for Bush right now but I know that will change as the summer wears on. I really don't put faith in polls as I don't believe the sample enough people. In this modern age we could easily sample 500,000 registered voters. Just my opinion, it may not be feasible I don't know.

BTW, what part of MD are you from? I grew up in N.E. Baltimore City. Franklin Square Hospital is where I was born.

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Updated for your viewing pleasure/displeasure :



R - 345
D - 192*



*D.C. Electors Abstains

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StatesRights, though asking 500 000 people is techically feasible, think about the costs...this is all statistical, an MoE of 3% in 95% of the cases is sufficient in most peoples minds.

The state-owned polling firm in Sweden, SCB, make 2 big polls a year, with a sample of about 9 000.

If telemarketers can use automated machines and call thousands of people at a clip then what would stop a rich person from funding such a poll?

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Ask Soros.

I'd tell that liberal weenie to take his money and go to Europe.

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That "liberal weenie" happens to have a sh**tload of money to spare.

Very true.

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Yes, but I feel if you had a larger sample you could get a clearer picture. I'm sorry but 650 or whatever number they use out of 100 million voters doesn't really tell me to much that I could bet the farm on.

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My new one:

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/pred04.php?action=indpred&id=3536

Bush 275, Kerry 263.

Good but I'd flip WVA over to Bush. Several polls have him leading.

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Current map with polls this is how it's looking. ouch



R - 270
D - 268

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Switch NH.

No. lol

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I wonder if Kerry is going to make any stops in Utah, to get it down to a respectable 37-40%

Maybe he can send his VP choice out there.

Seriously, Bush has an OUTSIDE chance at 80% in Utah.

Bush will get 65% in Florida...........lol

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State's Rights, who is that hot off-road girl in your picture?

I was thinking the same thing

Gretchen Wilson

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A country singer?

Yep! No about it nothing but from me!

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Updated for your viewing pleasure/displeasure:




R - 321
D - 216*





*- 1 Democratic Elector will abstain.

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One Democratic elector will NOT abstain

Yes the DC one will out of protest.

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Here's a freaky one:



Kerry 452, Bush 86 (From a Washington Republican)

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/pred04.php?action=indpred&id=368

Kerry winning Texas, TN, Georgia? Keep dreaming!

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His first map makes a LOT more sense..Except TN.

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Who is John Engle?

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My newest prediction. slight up-date from the last.
Derived from information from http://www.electionprojection.com/elections2004.html

Georgia soon to become a toss up

Also Dave I love the update to the map prediction part of your web page.  Finally their might be some traction in changes in the mean map prediction instead of having Ohio frozen solid Bush and Wisconsin solid Kerry.

Barring a complete Bush collapse this map will NEVER happen. Look at my map. That WILL happen.

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I think he is assuming a Bush collapse.  However, you're doing the same thing with Kerry.

Not sure how the heck he loses California and New Jersey but keeps Washington.  You'd think if Bush was +14 or so he'd take Washington and Minnesota too.  Not to mention Illinois and Maryland.

New Jersey was +16 and California was +12.  California = Georgia.  New Jersey = Alabama.

A Kerry collapse is inevitable. The Democrats have been carrying him along since the primaries.

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Here is my prediction (I can't figure out how to post it): http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/pred04.php?action=indpred&id=1196

Florida will never and I repeat never go Kerry this year. Mark my words.

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It has the edge to Bush, but it obviously isn't the equivilent of Texas or Alabama.  You really think Florida has shifted +10 Bush since 2000 or something?  Even then, 55-45 isn't impossible.  I think it has shifted about +4.

The reason I see it shifting to heavier then before GOP was that most of the old time Democrats are becoming offended by the social views of their party. They see their party as being taken over by fringe elements. I wholeheartedly agree with that setiment to.

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Here is my prediction (I can't figure out how to post it): http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/pred04.php?action=indpred&id=1196

put img tags around the url.

RWN you need AIM! I'd enjoy having a discussion with you someday.

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R-270
D-268