WA - SurveyUSA: Murray +18

[neostassenite31]

Patty Murray (D-inc): 49%
Tiffany Smiley (R): 31%
Undecided: 20%

10/25-10/28/21 (542 RV)
MoE: 5.2%

https://www.king5.com/article/news/politics/washington-patty-murray-re-election-campaign-politics/281-aaf928de-67b2-4502-9e6e-85aca204a57a

Fun facts about this sample:
Party ID: D+12 (41% D, 29% R, 25% Indies)
Ideology: 31% conservative, 29% liberal, 33% moderate
Bachelor's degree or higher: 36%
Recalled 2020 presidential vote: NA

[neostassenite31]

Biden approval:
47% approve (+3)
44% disapprove

Jay Inslee (WA GOV) approval:
48% approve (+6)
42% disapprove

[neostassenite31]

I wish I live in a relatively safe blue state with stats like these. The NRSC would be foolish to come after this seat

[Xing]

Safe D, especially if she's up by that much with Biden's approval at +3 (pretty much the only way that could be true is if Democrats in the state are lukewarm about him, which is possible.)

[SnowLabrador]

Safe D, especially if she's up by that much with Biden's approval at +3 (pretty much the only way that could be true is if Democrats in the state are lukewarm about him, which is possible.)

Yeah. I know Murray's something of an institution in Washington state, but her race in 2010 was relatively close. Hopefully 2022 is different.

[ElectionsGuy]

She'll win but she's more likely to win by lower double digits than what this poll shows (lots of undecided independents who disapprove of Biden).

[RI]

I've met Smiley, and she's far too one-note to beat Murray. She has exactly one thing going for her (her VA work), but it's not even on a pressing issue that sways votes. But she's inoffensive, so she'll probably have a fairly "respectable" showing for a WA Republican.

TBH, I'm rather perplexed at how quickly the WSRP and donors have fallen in line behind her. I suppose there's a severe lack of choices, but still.

[Xing]

Safe D, especially if she's up by that much with Biden's approval at +3 (pretty much the only way that could be true is if Democrats in the state are lukewarm about him, which is possible.)

Yeah. I know Murray's something of an institution in Washington state, but her race in 2010 was relatively close. Hopefully 2022 is different.

It will be. Seattle has grown a ton since 2010, and turnout was pretty weak that year as well.

[Senator Incitatus]

Wonder if Beutler might run for this race, get a "respectable" showing of a nine-point loss instead of finishing third in a primary, and increase her signing bonus as a lobbyist.

[😥]

Wonder if Beutler might run for this race, get a "respectable" showing of a nine-point loss instead of finishing third in a primary, and increase her signing bonus as a lobbyist.

I highly doubt carpetbagging from Oregon would work well for him

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Yikes, Biden only +3 in Washington?

[Figueira]

Wonder if Beutler might run for this race, get a "respectable" showing of a nine-point loss instead of finishing third in a primary, and increase her signing bonus as a lobbyist.

I highly doubt carpetbagging from Oregon would work well for him

Presumably this was in reference to Jaime Herrera Beutler, not Knute Buehler.

I don't see why any top-tier candidates would enter this race though.

[TodayJunior]

I've met Smiley, and she's far too one-note to beat Murray. She has exactly one thing going for her (her VA work), but it's not even on a pressing issue that sways votes. But she's inoffensive, so she'll probably have a fairly "respectable" showing for a WA Republican.

TBH, I'm rather perplexed at how quickly the WSRP and donors have fallen in line behind her. I suppose there's a severe lack of choices, but still.

Is the Washington state Republican Party super conservative or are they just incapable of winning anything statewide due to the overall liberal electorate regardless of who they put up?

[RI]

I've met Smiley, and she's far too one-note to beat Murray. She has exactly one thing going for her (her VA work), but it's not even on a pressing issue that sways votes. But she's inoffensive, so she'll probably have a fairly "respectable" showing for a WA Republican.

TBH, I'm rather perplexed at how quickly the WSRP and donors have fallen in line behind her. I suppose there's a severe lack of choices, but still.

Is the Washington state Republican Party super conservative or are they just incapable of winning anything statewide due to the overall liberal electorate regardless of who they put up?

Both. When the base gets their way, they put up laughable candidates like Loren Culp who lose by double-digits. When the suburban moderates get their way, they put up milquetoast candidates like Bill Bryant who lose by mid-single digits.