MI -Trafalgar: James Craig +6

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/PollsandOdds/status/1457923349095583748?s=20

[Chips]

In the wise words of Dave Wasserman...I've seen enough, Craig is the favorite in this race.

[Matty]

michigan seems like a state that is going to be ugly for dems in 2022

turnout problems in detroit

rural erosion continues

no obvious area of engaged educated whites like nova and richmond.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

MI polls are junkie, but Whitmer is just as vulnerable as Hassan

[Senator Incitatus]

Would not be shocked if Michigan Democrats had their worst results since the 1920s. Could be looking at losing every seat outside Detroit-Ann Arbor depending on the map and should feel fortunate that there's no Senate race.

[Xing]

Not yet convinced that it'll be this lopsided, but Whitmer is definitely in trouble.

[SnowLabrador]

If Whitmer loses, it doesn't matter who wins Michigan's electoral votes in 2024. I get that her opponents are extremely vocal, but it's shocking that so many people who voted for her in 2018 no hate her guts.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Whitmer loses, it doesn't matter who wins Michigan's electoral votes in 2024. I get that her opponents are extremely vocal, but it's shocking that so many people who voted for her in 2018 no hate her guts.

Whitmer won in 2018 due to Stabenow, Stabenow is Favored in 2018/ Hassan and Whitmer will both eek out narrow wins

[Calthrina950]

Whitmer is one of the most vulnerable Democratic governors up for reelection next year, alongside Evers and Kelly. She has always been a polarizing figure, so I'm not surprised that she is struggling, especially in a swing state in what is shaping up to be a Republican year.

[President Johnson]

This spells trouble for Gretchen, though that was about to be expected. As much as I hate to say it, Trafalgar got kind of vindicated in this year's races and even in 2020, at least the Midwestern states.

It's a long way to go, but this starts as a tossup. Her losing would really be a disappoint because I think she's presidential/vice presidential material.

[Mr.Phips]

This spells trouble for Gretchen, though that was about to be expected. As much as I hate to say it, Trafalgar got kind of vindicated in this year's races and even in 2020, at least the Midwestern states.

It's a long way to go, but this starts as a tossup. Her losing would really be a disappoint because I think she's presidential/vice presidential material.

Unfortunately I think she’s gone.

[Mr.Phips]

Would not be shocked if Michigan Democrats had their worst results since the 1920s. Could be looking at losing every seat outside Detroit-Ann Arbor depending on the map and should feel fortunate that there's no Senate race.

They should still have an Oakland district or an Oakland/Lower Macombe district.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This spells trouble for Gretchen, though that was about to be expected. As much as I hate to say it, Trafalgar got kind of vindicated in this year's races and even in 2020, at least the Midwestern states.

It's a long way to go, but this starts as a tossup. Her losing would really be a disappoint because I think she's presidential/vice presidential material.

Unfortunately I think she’s gone.

This is a Traggy poll 365 days before an Election they had Trump winning the weekend before the Election

[One Term Floridian]

Makes you wonder what Kelly's numbers must be like in KS...

[GregTheGreat657]

michigan seems like a state that is going to be ugly for dems in 2022

turnout problems in detroit

rural erosion continues

no obvious area of engaged educated whites like nova and richmond.

Oakland, Ingham, Kent, Washentaw, Leelanau, and Ottawa: Am I a joke to you?
But seriously, although those areas aren't exactly monolithically white and educated, they are all whiter (except for Washnetaw), and more educated than the national average, though those aren't exactly a continuous area

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Makes you wonder what Kelly's numbers must be like in KS...

They did two polls and she was statistically tied

[Horus]

Whitmer was too strict on COVID and Craig is a strong opponent. Detroit is still losing population, Macomb county is suburban but trending R, and Little Holland is still very conservative downballot. She is not favored.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Whitmer was too strict on COVID and Craig is a strong opponent. Detroit is still losing population, Macomb county is suburban but trending R, and Little Holland is still very conservative downballot. She is not favored.

MI POLLS ALWAYS Tend TO BE R FRIENDLY BUT ITS JUNKIE BECAUSE Traggy had TRUMP AHEAD ON THE FINAK WEEKEND IN MI, THIS RACE IS FAR FROM OVER ABD Gretchen should narrowly eejnit out a yr before the Election

[Hollywood]

It's Trafalgar.  They should always be taken seriously.  They've consistently improved their accuracy.  They lean Republican.  I get it.  They still get real close.  There's a reason their rating keeps improving while the Dem. polls keep getting downgraded.  I imagine it hurts a bit every time Nate Silver has to upgrade them.  lol

I live in Florida.  Never been to Michigan.  My feeling is that Florida is a Republican blow-out.  It was a 12 points swing in Virginia, and Michigan is kind of getting to be more like Ohio. 

I think they might be right on the money at this point.  Black people are moving out of the urban hellholes for a better life, so it's going to become harder for Democrats to organize them.   I also imagine they are becoming a bit more conservative, and less likely to go to the polls.  There's reason Trumped targeted the state.  I always believed Republicans should target the Midwest along time ago. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Being up 6 as an R with a yr left is nothing, ask DeVos he was leading by same margin and lost

Whitmer will win

[Lief 🗽]

Lean R.

[Duke of York]

The gold standard of polling. Though things can change with a year out.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They're an R hack firm that had Trump ahead the weekend before the Election in MI and WI, Biden won't be at 41 percent by Election day

[Biden his time]

Whitmer's approval rating is exceptionally poor among governors (50%), even Beshear and Kelly (54% each) are less vulnerable.

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John James must be seething, seeing how if he didn't run so much in 2018 and 2020, he'd have a real good fighting chance at being Michigan's next governor.