Flip the 6th (gameplay thread)

[OBD]

Wikimedia Commons

FLIP THE 6TH
a 2022 election game

district map

[OBD]

Turn I

before November 2021

News*

Oregon Passes New Congressional Map

After a rollercoaster of negotiations and bluffs between Oregon Democrats and Republicans, the two dueling factions in the Statehouse have at last come to a settlement on a new congressional map for the Beaver State. In a joint statement to the press in Salem, Majority Leader Tina Kotek (who is also running for Governor) and Minority Leader Christine Drazan applauded the bipartisan redistricting consensus, which they claim resulted in "one of the fairest maps of the nation". Many Democrats, however, have expressed dissatisfaction with the map, believing that with egregious Republican gerrymanders passing in Texas and North Carolina that the Oregon Democrats underplayed their hand.  The new map results in three Democratic seats, one Republican seat, and two competitive seats - Democratic Representative Peter DeFazio's Southern Oregon seat, and an open seat containing much of the Willamette Valley, including Salem, Albany, and Corvallis.

Infrastructure Bill Passes

In a significant victory for the Biden administration, a bipartisan infrastructure bill was officially passed by both houses of Congress and signed by the President. This bill passes after a fraught duel between progressive and moderate wings of the Democratic party as part of a larger proxy war over Biden's landmark Build Back Better plan - progressives hoped to hold the bill from passage until moderates voted to advance Biden's social spending plan, but largely caved after receiving a written commitment from House moderates to back BBB. The passage marks a major victory for a Biden administration plagued by anemic approvals - however, with BBB still in the air, many left-leaning Democrats are fearful that they have coughed up their leverage over moderates, with potentially catastrophic results for them.

Competitive Primary Looms In 6th District

Just days after Oregon approved a new congressional map, candidates from across the new 6th District have emerged to attempt to claim the new seat for their parties. And, polling was recently released for competitive primary races for both parties. On the Republican side, moderate State Senator Heather Cooper and Trumpist radio host Doyle Brooks lead the pack, aided by higher name recognition than their counterparts, businessmen Ted Miller and Dale Scott. The Democratic primary, meanwhile, is extremely tight. Christine Jang, an environmental scientist and Biden organizer from Salem, and Thomas Ryder, a Benton County commissioner and high-profile Sanders supporter from Corvallis - Charlotte Adams, a progressive community college professor, and Eric Talbot, a center-left State Senator representing the Corvallis area, are hot on their heels, while activist Yuri Testikov trails significantly.

Additionally, several debates and town halls have been announced by various citizen organizations across the 6th District, and invitations to attend have been sent to all candidates involved. Participations in these events are obviously not mandatory for success - however, debate organizers hope that candidates will elect to participate. With overall name recognition low and a large proportion of voters undecided, however, any candidate hoping to have a chance at victory will have to get to work introducing themselves to the people of the 6th District. Another important factor may be the district's sizable Hispanic voter base - especially in the Democratic primary, this rising political group may hold the key to victory.

Republican Debates
Oregon Catalyst (Dallas) - March 11
Marion County Republican Party (Salem) - May 7

Democratic Debates
OPB/Willamette University (Salem) - March 25
OSU Democrats (Corvallis) - April 30

Town Halls (Nonpartisan)
Fishermen's Forum (Lincoln City) - February 18
Lebanon Chamber of Commerce (Lebanon) - March 19
Alianza Poder (Woodburn) - April 23

Endorsements and Mechanics

Finally, a mechanics note. Endorsements will not work traditionally in this game. Rather, I will post a list of potential endorsers midway through this turn. Beginning next turn, candidates will be able to 'court' endorsements by including meetings with them (virtual or in-person) during their schedule, (ideally) accompanied by an appeal unique to the person or organization. These endorsers will endorse the candidate that has appealed most to them through personal appeals and policy positions sometime before the May primary - though I won't say when individual endorsers will make their moves!

And, last notes - the 6th district is geographically compact, but distances are not negligible. Please be realistic in your schedules and account for travel time. Also note that Benton County (Eugene market) and the remainder of the seat (Portland market) are in different media markets when running ads. Each candidate has 4 advertisement points per turn - it costs 1 point to run a newspaper advertisement district-wide, 1 point to run an advertisement in the Eugene media market, and 2 points to run an advertisement in the Portland media market.

*Any events that have occurred OTL prior to November 8 are assumed to have occurred here.

Polling

6th District Generic Ballot
Democratic 42%
Republican 40%
Undecided/Other 18%

Republican Primary
Heather Cooper 16%
Doyle Brooks 15%
Dale Scott 10%
Ted Miller 10%
Undecided/Other 49%

Democratic Primary
Christine Jang 13%
Thomas Ryder 13%
Charlotte Adams 12%
Eric Talbot 12%
Yuri Testikov 4%
Undecided/Other 46%

[OBD]

ENDORSEMENT BANK

Republican Primary

Doyle Brooks
Fmr. President Donald Trump

Democratic Primary

[OBD]

Turn II

November-December 2021

Announcements

Due to continued overlap with IRL and a busy schedule on my part, all events that occur IRL are assumed to occur here - so the only news story in this update will be the 6th Congressional District update. Feel free to peruse current news for stories to campaign on.

Additionally, the endorsement bank has been posted (2nd or so reply in the gameplay thread). Feel free to begin courting endorsements. If there is a missing major figure you wish to add to the bank, make requests in the interest thread.

Schedules are highly encouraged, if not required this turn. Speeches will also be very helpful for poll numbers. Speaking of poll numbers, I will not be taking questions on them, though I should note there is randomization involved.

6th District race heats up - polling remains tight

With just under a year remaining until Election Day 2022, the marquee open-seat race for Oregon's newly-created 6th congressional district has began to heat up. This is particularly true on the Republican side, with an unexpected burst of vitriol from multiple sides characterizing the opening days of the campaign. While Biden was mentioned, Republican candidates - Heather Cooper and Dale Scott in particular - preferred to focus on each other, though a recent agreement against negative campaigning may possibly cool the tensions. Of note was an allegedly homophobic attack employed repeatedly by Cooper against fellow Republican Ted Miller highlighting his status as a gay man - while LGBTQ+ organizations and several state Democrats, including gubernatorial frontrunner Tina Kotek have condemned this attack, Republican primary voters appear mostly indifferent (if somewhat uncomfortable), and it is unlikely swing voters will remember this incident next November without prompting. On other fronts, Cooper has successfully increased her profile among voters outside her district, but party insiders and members of our focus group have expressed concern about her tax proposal and the aforementioned negative campaigns.

Meanwhile, top rival Doyle Brooks has successfully consolidated conservative support, with hardcore Trumpists and 'Stop The Steal' demographics strongly supporting his campaign - however, more moderate GOPers and swing voters are skeptical of his candidacy. Businessman Dale Scott, meanwhile, has emerged as a winner of the first stretch of the campaign, with an imbroglio with Senator Cooper and a strong ad campaign significantly improving his visibility - and apparently, poll numbers. The last Republican in the primary, Ted Miller, was the only one to avoid negatively - however, most of his small increase in name recognition has come from the media firestorm surrounding Cooper's attacks on his candidacy, and he has struggled to respond to attacks made against him. These various developments translate to polling curiously, with recent polls showing Brooks up narrowly against Cooper, with Scott trailing despite vastly expanding his base.

The Democratic primary has, by and large, been more mild. Mainstream candidates, including Thomas Ryder, Charlotte Adams, and Christine Jang have successfully established themselves on the campaign trail, occupying increasingly clear lanes within this crowded primary. Observers note that, in particular, Ryder has been successful in acquiring both progressive and more moderate support, and that Jang's campaign seemingly has less energy around it despite soft (indicated) support from the party establishment. Meanwhile, Yuri Testikov has surprisingly caught fire among the district's activist left (centered in Corvallis), and several Oregon State leftist organizations have thrown their support behind him, registering university students to back his longshot campaign. Pundits believe the remainder of the district is 'terrified' of him - but nonetheless, he has seemingly maintained a narrow path to victory while encroaching on Thomas Ryder's Benton County base. For now, though, the Benton County commissioner holds an advantage in this tight - and for now, civil - race, with Adams and Jang fighting for second and Testikov and the (thus far absent) Talbot playing catch-up.

Polling

6th District Generic Ballot
Republican 42%
Democratic 42%
Undecided/Other 16%

Republican Primary
Doyle Brooks 20%
Heather Cooper 18%
Dale Scott 14%
Ted Miller 11%
Undecided/Other 37%

Democratic Primary
Thomas Ryder 17%
Charlotte Adams 14%
Christine Jang 14%
Eric Talbot 13%
Yuri Testikov 6%
Undecided/Other 36%

[OBD]

Turn III

January 2022

6th District Update

With a new year, comes new political developments. And, with Congress returning from winter recess, Democrats received a major shot in the arm. After previously indicating that he was a 'no' vote on President Biden's Build Back Better legislation, Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia has signaled that he would support a (albeit further limited) version of the legislation, seemingly clearing the way to passage of the bill. And, with the Omicron wave ebbing, Democrats appear to have two domestic policy victories to tout on the campaign trail this month.

Meanwhile, continued drama in Oregon's marquee 6th District race continues to excite political pundits while perplexing local voters. After a anti-negative campaigning agreement late last month seemingly closed the book on acrimony in the Republican primary, a new burst of attacks focused on candidate Doyle Brooks made December, perhaps, even more toxic than the opening weeks of the campaign - negatively affecting their generic ballot numbers in the seat. While political experts noted clever wording in the agreement leaving the door open for more moderate signatories Heather Cooper and Dale Scott to attack the Trump-endorsed Brooks, voters in the district were confused, and many perceived Cooper and Scott's attacks on Brooks in the wake of their previous agreement as hypocritical. In combination with Trump's enthusiastic endorsement and, to a lesser degree, skilled parries of attacks from all directions, Brooks has surged in the polls, becoming the undisputed frontrunner in the race. However, concerns about his electability remain, and with many undecideds skeptical of his support of the 'Big Lie', it is very possible his polling numbers are approaching a ceiling. On the other hand, Cooper and Scott appear to be competing for similar demographics, and may end up 'crowding' each other out, though Scott has continued to steadily climb the polls (pulling just two points behind Cooper) with an increasingly focused policy message.

The Democratic primary has been significantly calmer. Candidate Christine Jang had perhaps the best campaign season, tacking to the left and appealing strategically to Hispanic primary voters - and with these efforts uncontested, she appears to have a path to locking them down for the May election. Commissioner Ryder also performed strongly, successfully outlining policy priorities while also launching pointed attacks on the divided Republican field. With Adams and Talbot quiet on the campaign trail, Jang and Ryder have emerged as the two frontrunners, with Jang's strength in Salem and with minority voters offset by Ryder's better numbers in the remainder of the district and with solid progressives. Meanwhile, pundits questions radical Testikov's decision to attempt to gain endorsements from more establishment-leaning groups, though despite this strategic misfire, the underdog candidate appears to be gaining support among younger demographics eager for a leftist outsider.

Polling

6th District Generic Ballot
Democratic 43%
Republican 41%
Undecided/Other 16%

Republican Primary
Doyle Brooks 27%
Heather Cooper 21%
Dale Scott 19%
Ted Miller 9%
Undecided/Other 24%

Democratic Primary
Thomas Ryder 20%
Christine Jang 18%
Charlotte Adams 16%
Eric Talbot 11%
Yuri Testikov 8%
Undecided/Other 27%

[OBD]

Campaigning is now closed for the next grading period, with the exceptions of folks who requested and were granted extensions.

[OBD]

Turn IV

JFebruary 2022

This'll be just a polling update, with questions for the upcoming Fisherman's Forum in Lincoln City being released later (for scheduling purposes, the Forum is on the 19th). Additionally, for the first time, some head-to-head polling has been conducted between the frontrunners.

Polling

6th District Generic Ballot
Democratic 44%
Republican 43%
Undecided/Other 13%

Republican Primary
Doyle Brooks 30%
Heather Cooper 25%
Dale Scott 24%
Ted Miller 5%
Undecided/Other 16%

Democratic Primary
Thomas Ryder 28%
Christine Jang 26%
Yuri Testikov 11%
Charlotte Adams 11%
Eric Talbot 5%
Undecided/Other 19%

Head-to-Head Matchups
Thomas Ryder (D) 46%
Doyle Brooks (R) 38%
Undecided/Other 16%

Christine Jang (D) 45%
Doyle Brooks (R) 40%
Undecided/Other 15%

Doyle Brooks (R) 41%
Yuri Testikov (D) 40%
Undecided/Other 19%


Thomas Ryder (D) 43%
Dale Scott (R) 42%
Undecided/Other 15%

Christine Jang (D) 42%
Dale Scott (R) 42%
Undecided/Other 16%

Thomas Ryder (D) 43%
Heather Cooper (R) 41%
Undecided/Other 16%

Christine Jang (D) 44%
Heather Cooper (R) 42%
Undecided/Other 14%

[OBD]

Doyle Brooks @DoyleBrooksForCongress

The fake polls are designed by the mainstream media to trick us into nominating weak RINOs who would depress turnout, giving seats to Democrats on a silver platter! Ignore them! We will have the last laugh!

Dale Scott

"Did you just call yourself a RINO?"

This game is dead now. I at least am not playing it anymore, and I don’t think anybody else is either given that we went nearly 6 months without any activity in the game.

Personally I'd be willing to restart if there is interest from the other players and the GM.

Let's see if OBD is still up to being GM. I'm not sure I'm still willing to play now since I'm in the middle of another game and have kind of lost interest in this game, but if OBD is willing, I might be game too, we'll have to see. And if OBD is willing and I'm not, I can always have Cooper (ironically the other game I'm playing right now also has me playing as a Cooper - Roy Cooper) drop out.

If there is interest from the players I suppose I can look into restarting this. However, it seems like intrest is solely on the Republican side at the moment, and I would prefer to have some of the old Democrats jump back in as well if a reboot is to occur.