Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[jaichind]

Looks like Nuland is out.  I guess someone has to take the fall for the current Ukraine situation

[Virginiá]

Ukraine sinks another Russian ship, this time a Project 22160 Patrol Ship

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1764961463561527342

[Storr]

Russia is a parody of itself:

"Last week, Arkhangelsk gave us the “We Must Know Our Heroes’ Faces” university talk with masked Russian soldiers. This week, behold the forum on “Women Changing the World.” See if you can spot the issue."



https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1765026952769913001?s=20

[Storr]

I guess this shows that money talks, even when pledges and promises fail to deliver:

"🇪🇺🇺🇦 Ukraine has procured over 350,000 artillery shells themselves from European defense industry

This was disclosed by EU VP Josep Borrell, who stated that in addition to ammunition donated and procured by EU states, Ukraine had acquired 350k shells via their own contracts."

https://twitter.com/ColbyBadhwar/status/1765062605109108833?s=20

[Virginiá]

Russia finally destroys a HIMARS launcher (not counting the previously damaged ones, as they were being sent for repairs and were not even close to total losses). Only took them nearly 2 years to do so:

https://twitter.com/John_A_Ridge/status/1765071378984862148

On a side note, Russia seems to be getting better with its ISR capabilities behind Ukrainian lines. And the use of ballistic missiles to hit actual military targets instead of apartment buildings and hospitals seems to be an ongoing shift in tactics the past few months.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Russia finally destroys a HIMARS launcher (not counting the previously damaged ones, as they were being sent for repairs and were not even close to total losses). Only took them nearly 2 years to do so:

https://twitter.com/John_A_Ridge/status/1765071378984862148

On a side note, Russia seems to be getting better with its ISR capabilities behind Ukrainian lines. And the use of ballistic missiles to hit actual military targets instead of apartment buildings and hospitals seems to be an ongoing shift in tactics the past few months.

It took them over two years to destroy one HIMARS? That's good news for Ukraine.

[Virginiá]

Notable thing about Ukraine/artillery shells: Ukraine's best bet long-term is to manufacture their own. If you go by some estimates of 155mm shells from European manufacturers, they can cost as high as $4k/shell, or even higher, since demand has skyrocketed into the stratosphere the past 2 years.

350,000 at that rate would be 1.4 billion dollars. For a country like Ukraine, that is just...not economically sustainable without outside support. So we're talking about a minimum of 12 billion dollars a year just for artillery shells. Not even counting propellant charges and spare parts for the guns themselves (like new barrels).

https://twitter.com/ColbyBadhwar/status/1765062605109108833

[Hindsight was 2020]

Notable thing about Ukraine/artillery shells: Ukraine's best bet long-term is to manufacture their own. If you go by some estimates of 155mm shells from European manufacturers, they can cost as high as $4k/shell, or even higher, since demand has skyrocketed into the stratosphere the past 2 years.

350,000 at that rate would be 1.4 billion dollars. For a country like Ukraine, that is just...not economically sustainable without outside support. So we're talking about a minimum of 12 billion dollars a year just for artillery shells. Not even counting propellant charges and spare parts for the guns themselves (like new barrels).

https://twitter.com/ColbyBadhwar/status/1765062605109108833

The rate of uptick EU and Ukraine mass production of artillery shells says that by 25/onward they’ll be able to cut Russia’s artillery ratios from 10k to 2k in their favor to 10k-7 or 8k in their favor to possibly even rations depending on certain conditions. Which would be massive but the problem is this year and it makes Johnson and the House GOP actions unforgivable

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Last month was the worst month for Ukraine in terms of net change of territory since January 2023.

https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1764431653345153468

the fact that Ukraine losing 2 ten-thousandths of their land is the worst month for them in over a year kinda shows that this isn't ending in Russia's favor anytime soon.

[Frodo]

The Putin simps here on this thread and in the Republican Party must be cheering:

Victoria Nuland, third-highest ranking US diplomat and critic of Russia's war in Ukraine, retiring

[jaichind]

https://www.spiegel.de/politik/berlin-kanzleramt-uebt-notfall-umzug-in-ausweichdienstsitz-a-1cf4e29b-4e2d-4d2c-99f1-e42154523afe

"Chancellery practices the emergency move"

The Germans are conducting training on the urgent relocation of the Reich Chancellery to the bunker.

Reich Chancellery? bunker?  The expect the Russians to be in Berlin again? Sounds like 1945 again

[Hollywood]

Kudos on the UAF preventing the Russians from pushing past the defensives line west of Avdiivka over the past week.  The Russians have found new holes in the Ukrainian defensive lines near Marinka and Pervomaiske.  They’ve almost taken Novomykhailivka, and they’ve established a foothold around Krasnohorivka.   A very serious situation is unfolding. 

Why? ISW reporting a high volume of Russian Aerial Assaults over the past week, but they are unable to confirm the Ukrainian claim in the headline that insinuates the UAF has been shooting down Su-34 aircrafts. https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/03/6/7445166/

Ukraine is also seriously threatened near Ivanivske.  Russia has almost taken the entire town.  This would collapse UAF defense further south in Klishivka and near Andriivka.  Russia would be able to completely focus their attention on Chasiv Yar, which has been getting bombarded by aircrafts and drones.  Ukraine has published videos where they destroy abandoned Russian tanks advancing on Southern Ivanivske.

[CumbrianLefty]

The Putin simps here on this thread and in the Republican Party must be cheering:

Pro-Russia conspiracy theorists everywhere will be crying into their vodka.

[jaichind]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/03/05/state-of-the-union-olena-zelenska-yulia-navalnaya/

"Ukraine’s first lady declines State of the Union invitation"



My understanding of the "problem" is that she will have to sit next to Yulia Navalnaya so the answers is no.

[Hindsight was 2020]

The Putin simps here on this thread and in the Republican Party must be cheering:

Pro-Russia conspiracy theorists everywhere will be crying into their vodka.

I swear if I hear one more idiot cite that phone call of hers as “proof” Maiden was a CIA coup

[Open Source Intelligence]

Last month was the worst month for Ukraine in terms of net change of territory since January 2023.

https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1764431653345153468

Why I've been saying "this is a stalemate" for 18 months. Stalemate = Russia doesn't get more land, Ukraine doesn't get its land back.

Right now though the Russians have finally cracked through the line which from the standpoint of a chess game means there've been a lot of exchanges but Russia has a free pawn that looks like it has an opening to promotion.

[Hollywood]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/03/05/state-of-the-union-olena-zelenska-yulia-navalnaya/

"Ukraine’s first lady declines State of the Union invitation"



My understanding of the "problem" is that she will have to sit next to Yulia Navalnaya so the answers is no.

Yeah.  I'm pretty sure it's a big F-ing problem.  Ukraine's Intelligence Chief, Budanov, completely rejected the Navalny assassination story as propaganda, so Navalny would appear to be a divisive figure for Ukraine to rally around.  

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-06/hungary-s-orban-wants-to-discuss-ukraine-with-trump-in-florida?embedded-checkout=true

"Hungary’s Orban Wants to Discuss Ukraine With Trump in Florida"

[CumbrianLefty]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-06/hungary-s-orban-wants-to-discuss-ukraine-with-trump-in-florida?embedded-checkout=true

"Hungary’s Orban Wants to Discuss Ukraine With Trump in Florida"

Sounds totally legit and nothing to worry about

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-06/hungary-s-orban-wants-to-discuss-ukraine-with-trump-in-florida?embedded-checkout=true

"Hungary’s Orban Wants to Discuss Ukraine With Trump in Florida"

Sounds totally legit and nothing to worry about

In what world wouldn't they be discussing Ukraine if they were meeting in Florida?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Why I've been saying "this is a stalemate" for 18 months. Stalemate = Russia doesn't get more land, Ukraine doesn't get its land back.

Right now though the Russians have finally cracked through the line which from the standpoint of a chess game means there've been a lot of exchanges but Russia has a free pawn that looks like it has an opening to promotion.

That analogy basically works

[jaichind]

Yeah.  I'm pretty sure it's a big F-ing problem.  Ukraine's Intelligence Chief, Budanov, completely rejected the Navalny assassination story as propaganda, so Navalny would appear to be a divisive figure for Ukraine to rally around.  

I think here is where the USA and Ukraine are not aligned. 

For Ukraine, the war is about positioning Ukraine away from being an East Slav state to a West Slav state.  This is about imposing the lived experience of Western Ukraine (Volyn-Lvov) which was part of Austria-Hungary as the lived experience of Ukraine as a whole.

For the USA, the goal is to install a Russian government that aligns with USA foreign policy goals.  The East Slav vs West Slav narrative is not that important.    For Ukraine Navalny, the narrative is still about East Slav so Ukraine has a problem with Navalny but the USA is fine with backing Navalny.

[Hollywood]

Yeah.  I'm pretty sure it's a big F-ing problem.  Ukraine's Intelligence Chief, Budanov, completely rejected the Navalny assassination story as propaganda, so Navalny would appear to be a divisive figure for Ukraine to rally around.  

I think here is where the USA and Ukraine are not aligned. 

For Ukraine, the war is about positioning Ukraine away from being an East Slav state to a West Slav state.  This is about imposing the lived experience of Western Ukraine (Volyn-Lvov) which was part of Austria-Hungary as the lived experience of Ukraine as a whole.

For the USA, the goal is to install a Russian government that aligns with USA foreign policy goals.  The East Slav vs West Slav narrative is not that important.    For Ukraine Navalny, the narrative is still about East Slav so Ukraine has a problem with Navalny but the USA is fine with backing Navalny.

I was under the impression that the war for Ukraine was about retaining its National Identity and Independence as a mutlislavic state independent of Russian Influence.  Ukraine is generally an East Slav region that was invaded and colonized by West, South and East Slav sub-groups like the Rus, Pols, and Hungarians.  Muslim ethnic groups also played a role.  I'm pretty sure the Ukrainian National Movement grew out of the Ruthenian (East Slav) civil war with Poland that ended with the siege of Lviv.  Maybe Navalny is viewed in Ukraine as someone that didn't support Ukrainian Independence, and served as a destabilizing figure in Russia. 

IMO, the US narrative with Navalny is more about gaining sympathy from a US audience by exploiting the death.  The whole story seems fishy to me.  Why would he return to Russia after Germany accused Putin of poisoning him? 

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Natural gas prices are dropping so low in Europe right now, I've been given an offer for a 2-year contract for just €36 per month.

For comparison, the contract I signed in July 2021 had me pay €46 per month, then the next two-year contract required €82 per month in 2022, and €71 in 2023.

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-05/russia-s-oil-and-gas-revenue-jumped-in-february-in-budget-boost?embedded-checkout=true

"Russia’s Oil and Gas Revenue Jumped in February in Budget Boost"

Russia’s oil and gas revenue jumped more than 80% in February from a year earlier to over $10 billion due to higher prices for the nation’s crude as its producers withstood Western sanctions.

The jump is massive although some of this is seasonal but the discounts Russia has to give to sell its energy products have been going down