Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/french-president-emmanuel-macron-sending-western-troops-ground-107563148

"French President Emmanuel Macron says sending Western troops on the ground in Ukraine is not 'ruled out' in the future"

It's interesting that he didn't say '"French Troops".  This is not the type of thing I'd advertise to the French People on social media if I wanted Macron to stay in in power after July. 

Whichever country is most willing to contribute troops is probably who will get involved, if this bridge is crossed. Atm that's not entirely clear hence the hedging language.

[Hollywood]

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/french-president-emmanuel-macron-sending-western-troops-ground-107563148

"French President Emmanuel Macron says sending Western troops on the ground in Ukraine is not 'ruled out' in the future"

It's interesting that he didn't say '"French Troops".  This is not the type of thing I'd advertise to the French People on social media if I wanted Macron to stay in in power after July. 

Whichever country is most willing to contribute troops is probably who will get involved, if this bridge is crossed. Atm that's not entirely clear hence the hedging language.

I know why he's using that language.  Heding language like that is routinely used in election years to trick voters that can mean anything to anyone at anytime while saying just enough to satisfy supporters of the policy and then gaslight them when if you ever decide to F them by failing to follow-through on the policy you meant them to think you promised.  If the either side says you lied, the real extremists and their media can always call you a dangerous extremist or traitor. 

[Hindsight was 2020]

It’s weird that the EU sending troops is coming up before sending Ukraine missiles and saying they can hit Russia in Russia

[Virginiá]

lmao @ Europe sending troops into Ukraine. America has absolutely no interest in deploying there (considering their focus is the Pacific), and there is no small contribution for Europe if they got involved. It would require a large mobilization of people, resources and manufacturing capabilities, considering many of their militaries are not particularly well-stocked, even before all the aid to Ukraine. Germany arguably has enough armor for one offensive in Ukraine, and not much ammunition for it. The UK is even worse off. Would Poland want to shoulder the brunt of that?

Laughable coming from France, who wouldn't even let the EU seek shells outside the bloc months ago, helping to lead to this desperation now. They aren't prepared to make sacrifices that come with joining the war. They wouldn't even sacrifice some domestic contracts so Ukraine could get more artillery shells faster.

[Hindsight was 2020]

lmao @ Europe sending troops into Ukraine. America has absolutely no interest in deploying there (considering their focus is the Pacific), and there is no small contribution for Europe if they got involved. It would require a large mobilization of people, resources and manufacturing capabilities, considering many of their militaries are not particularly well-stocked, even before all the aid to Ukraine. Germany arguably has enough armor for one offensive in Ukraine, and not much ammunition for it. The UK is even worse off. Would Poland want to shoulder the brunt of that?

Laughable coming from France, who wouldn't even let the EU seek shells outside the bloc months ago, helping to lead to this desperation now. They aren't prepared to make sacrifices that come with joining the war. They wouldn't even sacrifice some domestic contracts so Ukraine could get more artillery shells faster.

The only way I see this idea remotely work is them sending EU troops into western and northern Ukraine as “peacekeepers” to free up all those troops to go to into the eastern front and even then it’s risky

[Pericles]

Surely he'd mean that if Ukraine became a NATO member at some point in the distant future, Western troops would then be stationed there? Not that they'd fight in the current war.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Surely he'd mean that if Ukraine became a NATO member at some point in the distant future, Western troops would then be stationed there? Not that they'd fight in the current war.

The discussion was allegedly about doing it now at least the Polish reports on it make it sound like that

[HillGoose]

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/french-president-emmanuel-macron-sending-western-troops-ground-107563148

"French President Emmanuel Macron says sending Western troops on the ground in Ukraine is not 'ruled out' in the future"

LFG!!!

too bad he said "in the future" though, should have been done TWO YEARS AGO!

[Lord Halifax]

lmao @ Europe sending troops into Ukraine. America has absolutely no interest in deploying there (considering their focus is the Pacific), and there is no small contribution for Europe if they got involved. It would require a large mobilization of people, resources and manufacturing capabilities, considering many of their militaries are not particularly well-stocked, even before all the aid to Ukraine. Germany arguably has enough armor for one offensive in Ukraine, and not much ammunition for it. The UK is even worse off. Would Poland want to shoulder the brunt of that?

Laughable coming from France, who wouldn't even let the EU seek shells outside the bloc months ago, helping to lead to this desperation now. They aren't prepared to make sacrifices that come with joining the war. They wouldn't even sacrifice some domestic contracts so Ukraine could get more artillery shells faster.

but it might still be the most realistic response after all. Western Europe can't realistically supply more ammunition unless they switch into a war economy, which takes time and would be resisted by various interest groups. Deploying troops is a lot quicker and compensates for the failure to supply enough shells and missiles. The Ukrainian air force is on its last leg so fighter planes from Western European NATO countries would make a big difference.

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-27/north-korea-speeds-up-pace-of-secretive-weapons-shipments-to-putin

"North Korea Appears to Be Accelerating Military Aid to Russia"

South Korean Defense Minister Shin Wonsik told reporters that North Korea is estimated to have sent about 6,700 containers to Russia, accelerating the pace of shipments since Putin held a summit with Kim Jong Un in September, Yonhap News reported Tuesday. The containers could hold about 3 million rounds of 152 mm shells, Shin said.

[jaichind]

https://www.timesnownews.com/world/tucker-carlson-assassination-attempt-thwarted-russia-man-confession-video-ukraine-article-108024393

"Assassination Attempt On Tucker Carlson Thwarted In Russia? 'Confession Video' Surfaces"

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-27/north-korea-speeds-up-pace-of-secretive-weapons-shipments-to-putin

"North Korea Appears to Be Accelerating Military Aid to Russia"

South Korean Defense Minister Shin Wonsik told reporters that North Korea is estimated to have sent about 6,700 containers to Russia, accelerating the pace of shipments since Putin held a summit with Kim Jong Un in September, Yonhap News reported Tuesday. The containers could hold about 3 million rounds of 152 mm shells, Shin said.

Given the fact "Best Korea" is famed for having great quality control, it's clear the aid Russia gets from them might not help too much at all.

[jaichind]

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/french-president-emmanuel-macron-sending-western-troops-ground-107563148

"French President Emmanuel Macron says sending Western troops on the ground in Ukraine is not 'ruled out' in the future"

It's interesting that he didn't say '"French Troops".  This is not the type of thing I'd advertise to the French People on social media if I wanted Macron to stay in in power after July.  

I can see a possible future scenario where there is some partition of Ukraine between Russia, Poland, Hungary, and Romania with a rump Ukraine in the middle with NATO troops entering the zone to be taken over by Poland Hungary and Romania.

[jaichind]

Given the fact "Best Korea" is famed for having great quality control, it's clear the aid Russia gets from them might not help too much at all.

“Quantity has a quality all its own.” - Stalin.
The way the war has developed last year or so is a vindication of the old USSR doctrine of mass artillery vs the NATO "smart weapons".   Under that doctrine, I can see how quality can over overcome by quantity.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

“Quantity has a quality all its own.” - Stalin.
The way the war has developed last year or so is a vindication of the old USSR doctrine of mass artillery vs the NATO "smart weapons".   Under that doctrine, I can see how quality can over overcome by quantity.

Fair, but doesn't NK produce an exceptionally high amount of dummy shells? Sure, you'd see many non-dummy ones, but it's enough to muddy the waters somewhat.

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-02-26/ukraine-macron-s-pot-shot-at-ukraine-chicken-says-much-about-eu-support?embedded-checkout=true

"France’s Pot Shot at Ukrainian Chicken Says a Lot"

Meanwhile, in France, where Emmanuel Macron is losing ground to far-right rival Marine Le Pen ahead of European elections, the government has pledged to protect protesting farmers from Ukrainian imports. Poultry farmers in particular have been calling for a halt to cheap Ukrainian chicken imports, claiming their deluge is untraceable and is lining the pockets of big corporations. Macron recently pointed the finger at chicken mogul Yuriy Kosiuk, founder of Ukraine’s top exporter MHP. “We are not interested in making money for this man,” he said this month. “It is not the goal.” MHP has since pushed back.

Similar dynamic in France as in Poland with respect to Ukraine agriculture imports

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-02-26/ukraine-macron-s-pot-shot-at-ukraine-chicken-says-much-about-eu-support?embedded-checkout=true

"France’s Pot Shot at Ukrainian Chicken Says a Lot"

Meanwhile, in France, where Emmanuel Macron is losing ground to far-right rival Marine Le Pen ahead of European elections, the government has pledged to protect protesting farmers from Ukrainian imports. Poultry farmers in particular have been calling for a halt to cheap Ukrainian chicken imports, claiming their deluge is untraceable and is lining the pockets of big corporations. Macron recently pointed the finger at chicken mogul Yuriy Kosiuk, founder of Ukraine’s top exporter MHP. “We are not interested in making money for this man,” he said this month. “It is not the goal.” MHP has since pushed back.

Similar dynamic in France as in Poland with respect to Ukraine agriculture imports

France does have a particularly powerful farming lobby.

[UWS]

https://kyivindependent.com/france-netherlands-back-czech-plan-to-buy-ammunition-for-ukraine-outside-eu/

[Open Source Intelligence]

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/french-president-emmanuel-macron-sending-western-troops-ground-107563148

"French President Emmanuel Macron says sending Western troops on the ground in Ukraine is not 'ruled out' in the future"

It's interesting that he didn't say '"French Troops".  This is not the type of thing I'd advertise to the French People on social media if I wanted Macron to stay in in power after July.  

I can see a possible future scenario where there is some partition of Ukraine between Russia, Poland, Hungary, and Romania with a rump Ukraine in the middle with NATO troops entering the zone to be taken over by Poland Hungary and Romania.

#nothappening Poland, Hungary, and Romania would be threatened by their partners they're out of the club if they went for it.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Ukraine proved this morning why drones and artillery are the biggest things they need as they inflicted a heavy repulse on Russia near Novomykhailivka

[Estrella]

After Sinn Féin’s victory in the next Irish election, Orbán will get a new ally.

https://twitter.com/clionaconnolly/status/1762453009429139476?s=46

[Hollywood]

The Russian air and ground campaign is having an epic day between Terny and Krasnahorvka.  They've got footholds in Ivanivske, Berdychi, Toneske, and there almost in Khrasonhorivka.  They are currently fighting for a nice slice of Terny, where they are seeing very little Ukrainian resistence East of the Oskill. 

This is the bombing campaign in Chasiv Yar. 
https://twitter.com/MukomaIcho/status/1762489414758932883

[Storr]

There has not been a more clear cut good vs. evil conflict since WWII:

"The head of the Russian occupation administration of Zaporizhia, Yevgeny Balitsky, admitted that Russia is massively deporting Ukrainians who do not support Russia.

The official admitted that the Kremlin is carrying out ethnic cleansing in the occupied territories of Ukraine"

https://twitter.com/den_kazansky/status/1762398536874741872?s=20

[jaichind]

All things equal many other EU leaders are rejecting  Macron idea of NATO troops in Ukraine.  I think Lithuania did indicate that they were for Macron's idea.  Most likely Macron saying this might be a trial balloon as well as setting the stage for this idea to be part of public discourse in EU.  

BTW, I cannot see how this idea can be realized without USA participation.  I am skeptical the USA can rally its population to support USA troops in Ukraine.

[jaichind]

On Macron's idea.  I actually would like to see it.  I want to see a  French brigade swap with an Ukraine and face the Russians.  I suspect the result will be quite shocking to Macron.  I always said that the idea of NATO officers "training" Ukrainian officers last year in the lead-up to the Ukraine counteroffensive was absurd. An experienced Ukrainian officer has a lot more to teach a NATO officer in my view.