Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[jaichind]

https://www.afr.com/policy/foreign-affairs/ukraine-to-australia-we-don-t-want-your-flying-trash-20240130-p5f0zo

"Ukraine to Australia: ‘We don’t want your flying trash’"

Last year, as Ukrainian fighter pilots were desperately trying to avoid being shot down by Russian aircraft equipped with longer-range radars, a senior Ukraine Air Force official told two Australians in Kyiv he wasn’t interested in a donation of 41 retired F/A-18 Hornet fighters.

“We don’t want your flying trash,” he said, according to a person present.

Beggers cannot be choosers.  It is not wise of Ukraine to say things like this.  I would have said something like " Thank you for this.  Right this does not fit with our current military doctrine so for now we are unlikely to use this generous gift"

[Hindsight was 2020]

Bade wake up Ukraine hit the Black Sea fleet again
https://twitter.com/bnonews/status/1753013968342282304?s=12

[Virginiá]

Bade wake up Ukraine hit the Black Sea fleet again
https://twitter.com/bnonews/status/1753013968342282304?s=12

Pretty funny how useless Russian close-in weapons systems are against drones and missiles alike. Their failure rate is costing them a lot of ships. These aren't even new threats, either. The US began preparing for this many years ago.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Imagine what happens to the almighty Russian fleet if they have to face a country with a real navy.
They might as well send some triremes and galleons because it's impossible to fare any worse.

[oldtimer]

Roland Oliphant:
"On Russia's war economy - and the "f**king insane" lack of urgency in Western response (thus far).

Further reading here, with @Barnes_Joe, @JamesERothwell and @jkjourno. Bottom line: Russia's economic mobilisation might not be sustainable and is far from perfect - but it is real, rapid, and should be taken seriously.

A little more comment. Just last week I heard it remarked that Russia's power should not be over estimated because it has an economy roughly the size of Spain's.

That was interesting, partly because the stock comparison used to be Italy and partly because two years into the war that complacent notion stubbornly persists.

It fails to grasp a basic thing about modern Russia. Which is that when the state sets itself a goal, vast sums are embezzled, successes exaggerated, and ordinary people pay the price.
It also - generally - gets the job done. [Comment from me: an example that came to mind is the Crimean Bridge.]

Regardless of which Mediterranean economy you compare it to. I don't have much time for the concept of "Russophobia," but in as far as it exists this assumption/dismissal is a good place to start.

It's the kind of ignorance that led Obama to decide he didn't have to do much about the annexation of Crimea because Russia was just a "regional power" expressing its "weakness".

I personally think the same kind of thinking informs the argument that "Russia failed to capture Kyiv two years ago so it is already defeated."

That complacency began to shift in Britain with the Skripal poisonings in 2018 (belatedly). But it has a weirdly long half life.

So on the war economy: Yes, Shoigu will shamelessly inflate tank production stats. Yes, millions of rubles will disappear. Yes, they'll churn out sub-par shells and Russian soldiers will die needlessly as a result. But none of that means they won't pull it off.

Maybe “ignorance” is unfair and a bit rude, so I withdraw it. Attitude is the word I’m looking for."

What war economy ?

If Russia was on a war economy it's industrial production increase wouldn't be pathetic.

From the very start the russian government has a very relaxed attitute towards war, which is why they lost.

The next generation of russian dictators will remember that and avoid Putin's lethargy, but it's 20 years till then.

[Hindsight was 2020]

“Russia cuts gasoline, diesel exports to offset refinery outages”

Russia has reduced gasoline exports to non-CIS countries to compensate for unplanned repairs at refineries, the Ministry of Energy said on Wednesday, as the country grappled with the impact of fires and drone attacks on its energy infrastructure.
It said gasoline and diesel exports have been reduced in January by 37% and 23% respectively from the same month in 2023.

Don’t expect a certain NY yellow avatar who loves talking about Russia’s economy and gas exports to mention this
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-cuts-gasoline-diesel-exports-offset-refinery-outages-2024-01-31/

[Logical]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/02/01/eu-ukraine-brussels-summit-orban/

"EU approves $50 billion support package for Ukraine"

It seems the compromise is: Since the 50 billion EUR economic aid to Ukraine will be sent over several years, the money will need to be approved on a year-by-year basis which means Orban will have a chance to veto the aid every year the next few years.

50 billion EUR is not that much if you split it over several years but it is better than nothing for Ukraine.

Orban folded like a lawn chair, because all he gets is a 'debate' on the aid annually-not a vote.

Ah, thanks for clarifying.  I must have misread what the deal was.  I have to dig into it but it could be after 2 years there are some veto rights for Hungary.  I am not sure since the reporting is not clear on this.

Irrelevant. As long as Tusk is in power in Poland no one will protect Hungary in the EU. He folded and he will fold again.

[jaichind]

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/russian-manufacturing-booms-with-economy-on-war-footing-1.2029130

"Russian Manufacturing Booms With Economy on War Footing"

Russian industry expanded for the third straight year in 2023 as the government’s spending on its prolonged war on Ukraine helped counter the impact of sanctions imposed by the US and its allies.

[jaichind]

https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/01/opinions/ukraine-army-chief-war-strategy-russia-valerii-zaluzhnyi/index.html

"Ukraine’s army chief: The design of war has changed"

CNN publishes an essay from Zaluzhny.  It seems he is not going down without a fight.

[Storr]

Interesting, as the PRC has avoided making any aggressive statements towards or about Ukraine since Feb. 2022, sticking to its neutral stance and instead blaming the US and NATO expansion for "inflaming tensions":

"China getting a little threatening here with Ukraine: Beijing reportedly demands that Kyiv immediately remove more than a dozen (!) Chinese companies from Ukraine’s “international sponsors of war” list and calls on Ukraine to “eliminate negative impacts.”"

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1753169010818998566?s=20

[jaichind]

https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/krieg-in-der-ukraine-manche-teilen-den-schuetzengraben-mit-toten-a-eee05142-3887-48a5-a164-e966f5d0b847

"War in Ukraine: Some share the trenches with the dead"

“The workload is huge, the tension is constant.  Most of the squad members are already wounded.  They contributed to the defense of the country, the soldiers believe.  Now it’s time for others to fight,”

[Meclazine for Israel]

https://www.afr.com/policy/foreign-affairs/ukraine-to-australia-we-don-t-want-your-flying-trash-20240130-p5f0zo

"Ukraine to Australia: ‘We don’t want your flying trash’"

Last year, as Ukrainian fighter pilots were desperately trying to avoid being shot down by Russian aircraft equipped with longer-range radars, a senior Ukraine Air Force official told two Australians in Kyiv he wasn’t interested in a donation of 41 retired F/A-18 Hornet fighters.

“We don’t want your flying trash,” he said, according to a person present.

Beggers cannot be choosers.  It is not wise of Ukraine to say things like this.  I would have said something like " Thank you for this.  Right this does not fit with our current military doctrine so for now we are unlikely to use this generous gift"

Eastern Europeans will never relinquish that arrogant edge even if they have nothing.

[jaichind]

Aid to Ukraine in terms of % of GDP.  Clearly, this chart is produced by the Germans to pressure France and Italy

[bilaps]

Well, Russians have advanced now in norhtern part of Avdeevka too. Around 1km in depth, Ukrainians have fully withdrawn to the city from the outskirts there. Urban battles have been ongoing in the south of the city for about a week or more after Russians managed to gain foothold in an operation behind enemy lines. Also, while west of Bakhmut situation has been stabilized for Ukraine, problems are now around Terny which is a key stronghold on the other bank of the river and pressure is continuing to mount on Novomikhailovka which is pretty much untenable after full fall of Marinka.

https://twitter.com/Pouletvolant3/status/1753366709656817780

[Red Velvet]

https://www.afr.com/policy/foreign-affairs/ukraine-to-australia-we-don-t-want-your-flying-trash-20240130-p5f0zo

"Ukraine to Australia: ‘We don’t want your flying trash’"

Last year, as Ukrainian fighter pilots were desperately trying to avoid being shot down by Russian aircraft equipped with longer-range radars, a senior Ukraine Air Force official told two Australians in Kyiv he wasn’t interested in a donation of 41 retired F/A-18 Hornet fighters.

“We don’t want your flying trash,” he said, according to a person present.

Beggers cannot be choosers.  It is not wise of Ukraine to say things like this.  I would have said something like " Thank you for this.  Right this does not fit with our current military doctrine so for now we are unlikely to use this generous gift"

Ehhhh I agree the tone is wrong but the message isn’t, so saying “generous gift” when it really isn’t is way too much, in order to even sound fake as hell.

“Thank you, we appreciate the help but that’s not what we need right now” is enough.

Ukraine knows Westerners are doing as little as possible so that Russia doesn’t fully take over quickly but nothing to actively crush the Russian like Ukraine really wants, so the frustration on their side, despite misguided in its source, is real.

Westerners aren’t wrong to refuse to do more btw, but that’s what conflict of interests is called. It’s not because Ukraine expects something that they have to do it.

[jaichind]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-proposes-curbs-ukraine-farm-imports-calm-angry-farmers-2024-01-31/

"EU plans curbs on Ukraine farm imports to calm angry farmers"

The European Commission on Wednesday proposed measures to limit agricultural imports from Ukraine and offer greater flexibility on rules for fallow land in a bid to quell protests by angry farmers in France and other EU members.

[jaichind]

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/russian-customs-officers-impound-containers-transporting-ukrainian-military-uniforms/3125779

"Russian customs officers impound containers transporting Ukrainian military uniforms"

The Russian Federal Customs Service said on Friday that it detained on its territory containers with uniforms for Ukrainian troops that were on a transit route through China to Poland.

Does not surprise me.  For Chinese of all stripes it is always going to be about "show me the money"

[jaichind]

https://www.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=6792963534146905&id=100002999784832&mibextid=qi2Omg

Zaluzhny with a selfie with a Right Sector Commander and with a Bandera picture in the background.  He shows off his power and influence with the powerful Right Sector political group to Zelensky.

[Storr]

Washington Post:

“The government of Ukraine has informed the White House that President Zelensky has decided to fire his top military commander, Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, said two people familiar with the discussion.”

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1753509312990003437?s=20

[Antonio the Sixth]

If he's going to fire him he should do it swiftly. Letting this drag out for weeks is the worst of both worlds. For morale and hierarchical clarity's sake, there needs to be a military commander who has the President's full confidence.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Washington Post:

“The government of Ukraine has informed the White House that President Zelensky has decided to fire his top military commander, Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, said two people familiar with the discussion.”

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1753509312990003437?s=20

Damn man but at least the article says Budanov has no interest in the job and Syrsky has a ton of baggage which points to someone like Zabrodskyi getting the job

[jaichind]

Damn man but at least the article says Budanov has no interest in the job and Syrsky has a ton of baggage which points to someone like Zabrodskyi getting the job

For me

if
a) Zaluzhny is not gone in the next few days then Zelensky is de facto overthrown
b) If  Budanov is put in charge then it is a shift toward asymmetrical warfare
c) If Syrsky is put in charge then it is a continuation of conventional warfare

I think the position of the USA neo-con establishment will play a big role on which choice this will be which is why Victoria Nuland was in Ukraine a few days ago to figure out which horse to put their money on.

[jaichind]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/02/02/zaluzhny-zelensky-ukraine-general-dismissal/

"Zelensky Move to Fire General Leaves Ukraine Guessing Who Will Command War"

Zelensky's office has informed the White House of the decision to remove Zaluzhny, two people familiar with the situation told The Washington Post. But at home, the Ukrainian administration has stayed silent after initially denying on Monday that Zaluzhny was being dismissed. Zelensky also has yet to formally remove Zaluzhny through an official decree.

The main problem is Zelensky still has not come up with who the replacement is.

[jaichind]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/polish-farmers-plan-general-strike-blockade-ukraine-border-2024-02-02/

"Polish farmers plan general strike, blockade of Ukraine border"

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The main problem is Zelensky still has not come up with who the replacement is.