Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[bilaps]

Putin said there are 617k  Russian soldiers in Ukraine right now.

[dead0man]

Putin said there are 617k  Russian soldiers in Ukraine right now.

and they still can't accomplish anything?  They are even more incompetent than we have been assuming then.

[bilaps]

It's a 2000km frontline.

[jaichind]

Putin said there are 617k  Russian soldiers in Ukraine right now.

and they still can't accomplish anything?  They are even more incompetent than we have been assuming then.

The Ukraine armed forces have a similar number of troops under arms as well so it will be a slow advance by either side with similar-sized forces.  Russia of course has the ammo edge.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Putin said there are 617k  Russian soldiers in Ukraine right now.

and they still can't accomplish anything?  They are even more incompetent than we have been assuming then.

Can’t accomplish anything? Silly little NAFO they took over a trash heap and a tree line by Stepove at the cost of 15k causalities and 300 tanks and armored vehicles. Checkmate 😎

[Stranger in a strange land]

Putin said there are 617k  Russian soldiers in Ukraine right now.

and they still can't accomplish anything?  They are even more incompetent than we have been assuming then.

Can’t accomplish anything? Silly little NAFO they took over a trash heap and a tree line by Stepove at the cost of 15k causalities and 300 tanks and armored vehicles. Checkmate 😎

There are so many parallels with the British Army in World War I, down to the fact that Russia may indeed eventually "win" but the victory will come at such a high cost and bring so little benefit that the war won't have remotely been worth fighting.

[bilaps]

Putin said there are 617k  Russian soldiers in Ukraine right now.

and they still can't accomplish anything?  They are even more incompetent than we have been assuming then.

Can’t accomplish anything? Silly little NAFO they took over a trash heap and a tree line by Stepove at the cost of 15k causalities and 300 tanks and armored vehicles. Checkmate 😎

So they did took that thrash heap?

Why stop at 15k casualties and 300 tanks. Go with 150k casualties and 30000 tanks, it sounds better and it has the same level of truth to it.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/CharlesMichel/status/1735350188883968000?s=20
Sweet!

[Storr]

Putin had his yearly marathon of taking questions from ordinary Russians (which totally aren't planted) on live television. Most of it is typical Putinspeak where he claims everything is going great and there's nothing to worry about, but there are some tidbits where we get insight into his brain:

"Putin says there will be peace with Ukraine "only when we achieve our goals [...] and those goals have not changed."

They still include the "de-Nazification" and "demilitarization" of Ukraine – i.e. a total capitulation to Russia."

"Putin also sounds confident that western military support for Ukraine is drying up.

"Ukraine produces almost nothing today, everything is coming from the west, but the free stuff is going to run out some day, and it seems it already is," he says."

"Putin crows at length about Ukraine's battlefield failures.

"The enemy announced a big counteroffensive. none of it worked anywhere," he said. "I don't even know why they do this. They are just sending their men out to be destroyed. It's a one-way ticket.""

"Putin also hinted quite strongly he'd like to annex at least two more Ukrainian provinces:

"Crimea and the whole Black Sea region have nothing to do with [Ukraine]. Odesa is a Russian city. We know that. Everyone does. But no, they thought up all sorts of historical nonsense.""


https://x.com/maxseddon/status/1735228284391092582?s=20
https://x.com/maxseddon/status/1735231041395204230?s=20
https://x.com/maxseddon/status/1735235167801778216?s=20
https://x.com/maxseddon/status/1735300042070675528?s=20

[windjammer]

Putin had his yearly marathon of taking questions from ordinary Russians (which totally aren't planted) on live television. Most of it is typical Putinspeak where he claims everything is going great and there's nothing to worry about, but there are some tidbits where we get insight into his brain:

"Putin says there will be peace with Ukraine "only when we achieve our goals [...] and those goals have not changed."

They still include the "de-Nazification" and "demilitarization" of Ukraine – i.e. a total capitulation to Russia."

"Putin also sounds confident that western military support for Ukraine is drying up.

"Ukraine produces almost nothing today, everything is coming from the west, but the free stuff is going to run out some day, and it seems it already is," he says."

"Putin crows at length about Ukraine's battlefield failures.

"The enemy announced a big counteroffensive. none of it worked anywhere," he said. "I don't even know why they do this. They are just sending their men out to be destroyed. It's a one-way ticket.""

"Putin also hinted quite strongly he'd like to annex at least two more Ukrainian provinces:

"Crimea and the whole Black Sea region have nothing to do with [Ukraine]. Odesa is a Russian city. We know that. Everyone does. But no, they thought up all sorts of historical nonsense.""


https://x.com/maxseddon/status/1735228284391092582?s=20
https://x.com/maxseddon/status/1735231041395204230?s=20
https://x.com/maxseddon/status/1735235167801778216?s=20
https://x.com/maxseddon/status/1735300042070675528?s=20

His reactions are reminding me of Hitler when he believed that Roosevelt's death would turn the tide in his favor. I don't even believe he's lying. He's being desillusional lol.

[MasterJedi]

Eventually Russia will empty out everything east/south of Urals or those they don’t consider “Russian”. Once they have to start tapping in to the young actual Russian men, that is when things could get dangerous for Putin. But right now they have no problem with emptying Siberian villages into the meat grinder.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/CharlesMichel/status/1735350188883968000?s=20
Sweet!

By Maksym Palenko:

[jaichind]

Sounds like someone is scared that Trump is likely to win in 2024.

[jaichind]

[bilaps]

https://twitter.com/Pouletvolant3/status/1735611253874135246

Slow grind around Avdeevka continues as Ukrainian troops are unable to hold the northern part around Stepove and consequences of Marinka's fall are pretty sure obvious now for places south of the city.

[jaichind]

https://www.bild.de/bild-plus/politik/ausland/politik-ausland/mehr-land-das-ist-putins-kriegsplan-fuer-die-naechsten-drei-jahre-86419892.bild.html

"This is Putin's war plan until 2026"

It seems Buld already came up with what Putin's plan should be for the war for the next couple of years

[Red Velvet]

https://twitter.com/djuric_zlatko/status/1735617845805928745
Great investment of US money! /s

[CumbrianLefty]

Indeed, everyone talks about how nobody wants to talk about it instead.

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1735366671613690056

This is the problem now with the Collective West PR machine.  They need to say both of

a) The Russian military has been cribbled due to military and economic aid to Ukraine.  It was great ROI, we need to keep it up
b) if we do not continue aid to Ukraine then the Russian war machine will become stronger than ever and will become a mortal threat to NATO

Clearly, both a) and b) cannot be true simultaneously, but the PR machine needs both arguments for internal consumption to mobilize domestic support for more aid to Ukraine.

[jaichind]

https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-has-seven-drones-every-one-ukraine-has-army-official-2023-12

"Ukraine says Russia has it outgunned 7 to 1 when it comes to drones"

I think I have seen this being said somewhere else as well but this time it is a member of the Ukraine military saying this.

[quesaisje]

Michael Kofman said something similar in a podcast interview that went out a few weeks ago. Russia is going into 2024 with a much larger advantage in drone power and artillery ammunition than it has had in this war so far.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1735679442981200371
F16s are coming in. Nice

[jaichind]

[Alcibiades]

Why are screenshots of Mail Online stories with no further comment considered acceptable contributions to this thread?

[Hindsight was 2020]

Due to the stupid border fight holding up aid the idea of handing over the frozen Russian assets to Ukraine is gaining serious momentum in the G7 with the US and UK leading the charge. This issue will likely be addressed at the February conference
https://www.ft.com/content/918645f8-e0b6-4cab-92fa-4f965569c2a6